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What is Defined Outcome Investing?

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Defined Outcome Investing Infographic

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What is Defined Outcome Investing?

Equities can play a critical role in any investment portfolio thanks to their long-term growth potential. At the same time, this asset class can also present a number of challenges for investors.

Uncertainty around the short to mid-term performance of equities can be a major deterrent for some, while others may find it difficult to select the best stocks based on their unique needs. Fortunately, there is a solution that can help investors overcome these challenges. In today’s infographic from New York Life Investments, we introduce defined outcome investing, and examine how it can help individuals take more control over their equity investments.

Understanding How DOI Works

Defined outcome investing (DOI) is a family of strategies that add a layer of predictability to an investor’s results. This is achieved through two unique aspects.

The first is a customizable risk-return profile, which gives investors the option of receiving either upside enhancement or downside protection features.

Risk-Return FeatureHow it Works
Upside enhancementEnhances the returns of the specified index, up to a cap. The investor is not sheltered from negative returns.
Downside protectionProtects investors from negative returns, up to a certain amount. The investor still participates in market upside, up to a cap.

The second aspect is a predetermined time period—defined outcome strategies carry a maturity date, similar to a fixed income security. Upon reaching its maturity date, a defined outcome strategy expires and the proceeds are paid out to the investor. This feature makes it easier for an investor to time their equity exposures around personal liquidity needs.

To understand the potential of DOI, consider a woman who wishes to make a down payment on a property one year from now. She would like to invest and grow her money in the meantime, but is worried about market volatility. Rather than purchase individual securities or ETFs, she could opt for a defined outcome strategy with downside protection over a one year term.

These features would reduce the likelihood of negative returns over the year, while still giving her exposure to the growth potential of equities.

Types of Defined Outcome Strategies

Investors have three distinct types of defined outcome strategies to choose from, depending on their personal objectives.

Growth Strategies

Growth strategies are designed for investors who:

  • Have a positive outlook on markets
  • Seek high levels of capital appreciation
  • Accept the possibility of negative returns

As implied by their name, these strategies produce enhanced market returns. They do not, however, offer any downside protection. The table below demonstrates how a growth strategy with 50% upside enhancement would perform across a number of scenarios. Assume a maximum return cap of 36%.

Market ScenarioS&P 500 Return (via ETF)Growth Strategy Return Defined Outcome Result
Strongly Positive50%36%Investors reach their maximum return cap of 36%.
Positive20%30%Investors gain 10 percentage points over the index.
Modestly Positive8%12%Investors gain 4 percentage points over the index.
Negative-10%-10%Investors match the index's negative return.

Buffered Strategies

Buffered strategies are a more neutral solution designed for investors who:

  • Have a moderate outlook on markets
  • Seek capital appreciation
  • Require a safety buffer to mitigate losses

Buffered strategies allow investors to participate in equity markets while receiving a specified level of insulation from negative returns. The table below demonstrates how a buffered strategy with 20% loss insulation would perform across a number of scenarios. Assume a maximum return cap of 24%.

Market ScenarioS&P 500 Return (via ETF)Buffered Strategy ReturnDefined Outcome Result
Strongly Positive30%24%Investors reach their maximum return cap of 24%.
Positive8%8%Investors match the positive return of the index.
Negative-20%0%Investors are sheltered from losses within their buffer.
Strongly Negative-30%-10%Any losses beyond the buffer are realized by the investor.

Preservation Strategies

Preservation strategies are best suited for risk-averse investors who:

  • Have a negative outlook on markets
  • Want to manage downside risk
  • Have significant financial obligations in the near future

Preservation strategies provide a different type of downside protection where, instead of a buffer, investors define their maximum loss. The table below demonstrates how a preservation strategy with 95% capital preservation (5% maximum loss) would perform across a number of scenarios. Assume a maximum return cap of 20%.

Market Scenario S&P 500 Return (via ETF)Preservation StrategyDefined Outcome Result
Strongly Positive30%20%Investors reach their maximum return cap of 20%.
Positive8%8%Investors match the positive return of the index.
Negative-3%-3%Investors match negative returns within their maximum loss.
Strongly Negative-30%-5%Investors maintain 95% of their capital.

Accessing Defined Outcome Strategies

Defined outcome strategies are accessed through a vehicle known as a unit investment trust (UIT). UIT’s offer similar levels of transparency and accessibility when compared to ETFs or mutual funds, including daily liquidity and transparency of holdings. So how are they able to offer such compelling risk-return features?

The answer lies in their use of equity options, a type of derivative contract. Equity options give the holder, in this case the UIT, the option of buying (or selling) a stock at a predetermined price on a specific date in the future. These contracts are used to engineer the risk-return features previously described, and are the reason why defined outcome strategies carry a maturity date.

Thus, in order to realize the specified upside enhancement or downside protection features, an investor must hold the UIT for its entire term. While there is no penalty for redeeming a UIT early, the investor will not reach their defined outcome objective.

A More Predictable Approach to Investing

Equities are a powerful tool for long-term growth, but it can be difficult to build a properly-aligned portfolio according to one’s risk tolerance. This becomes especially relevant in today’s uncertain economic environment.

With customizable risk-return profiles and a defined maturity date, defined outcome investing is a powerful solution that can support a variety of financial goals through different phases of the market cycle. Whether its maximizing returns or saving for retirement, investors can now take greater control over their financial future.

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Infographics

Retirement Savings: How to Calculate If You’re on Track

This graphic shows how to plan for sufficient retirement savings, and how the U.S. population measures up at each step.

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Retirement savings by age group, to help people gauge their own retirement planning. Retirement balances get bigger until age 65-74 and go down for those over age 75.

This infographic is available as a poster.

Retirement Savings: How to Calculate If You’re on Track

Setting a retirement savings goal can be overwhelming. In fact, one in three Americans have no idea what they need to save to retire at their target age.

Luckily, we can use a retirement calculator to help outline what you need to consider. This graphic from New York Life Investments walks you through setting your retirement savings goal, and shows how the U.S. population measures up at each step.

Step 1: Your Age

A calculator will typically start by asking for your current age and your target retirement age. This is to determine how long you have left to build up your investments. In the U.S., the average age of retirement has remained relatively stable and is currently 62.

Keep in mind that your retirement age can depend on many factors:

  • Your cost of living
  • Your job satisfaction
  • Your debts
  • Your spouse’s retirement plan
  • Your health

After you have your projected retirement age figured out, you’ll also need to estimate the length of your retirement.

The life expectancy for Americans at birth is 77 years. Once you’ve lived to age 65, that number is higher. This is because you’ve survived many untimely causes of death, including the higher mortality associated with childhood. The below table shows how the expected age of death changes as you age.

 At BirthAt Age 65
Male7482
Female8085
Both Sexes7784

To estimate your particular lifespan, you’ll also need to consider things like your genetics and your lifestyle. Having an idea of how long you might live may help you better manage longevity risk, or the risk you’ll outlive your savings.

Step 2: Your Savings

The next step in setting your retirement savings goal is to take stock of how much you’ve already saved. For context, here is how much Americans have saved for retirement by age group.

 Median BalanceAverage Balance
< 35$13,000$30,170
35-44$60,000$131,950
45-54$100,000$254,720
55-64$134,000$408,420
65-74$164,000$426,070
> 75$83,000$357,920

You’ll also need to decide how much you’ll be putting toward your retirement each year. Experts typically recommend saving about 15% of your pre-tax income. This can include your employer’s contributions, if any. Of course, this amount will vary based on how early you start saving and when you plan to retire.

Your expected investment earnings will play a big role, too. Here is what average annual returns have been for different types of portfolios based on historical data from 1928-2021.

 Conservative
(80% bonds, 20% stocks)
Balanced
(40% bonds, 60% stocks)
Growth
(20% bonds, 80% stocks)
Nominal Return8%10%11%
Real Return5%7%8%

Inflation has averaged about 3% each year. Remember to include inflation in your calculations so you can maintain purchasing power in retirement.

Step 3: Your Income

In the final step of setting your retirement savings goal, you’ll need to decide how much of your current household income you will use in retirement. Financial experts typically estimate you could need 70-80% of your pre-retirement income.

At this stage, it can be helpful to plan out a detailed budget. Here’s a spending overview for the average American over age 65.

CategoryAnnual Spending
Housing$17,435
Healthcare$6,668
Transportation$6,221
Food$5,698
Donations, Child and Spousal Support$3,119
Personal Insurance and Pensions$2,721
Entertainment$2,293
Clothing$821
Alcohol and Tobacco$635
Other$2,033

Other includes personal care products and services ($505), education ($450), reading ($157), and miscellaneous expenses ($921).

Now that you have an estimate of your expenses, you can factor in all sources of income you expect to receive in retirement. This helps narrow down what you need to have set aside in your retirement savings. For instance, most people collect Social Security in addition to their own pension. The below table shows what percentage of retirees have each income source.

SourceRetirees Age 65 and OlderAll Retirees
Social Security92%78%
Defined Contribution or Defined Benefit Pension66%57%
Interest, Dividends, or Rental Income49%43%
Wages, Salaries, or Self-employment25%32%
Cash Transfers Other Than Social Security7%11%

Respondents could select multiple answers. Sources include the income of a spouse or partner.

Based on all this information, a retirement calculator will estimate whether you are on track to sufficiently fund your retirement years.

Turning a Retirement Savings Strategy Into Action

It’s important to note that retirement calculators are a starting point. To come up with a customized strategy, you’ll likely want to consider:

  • Your current and expected tax rate
  • Increases in your income and savings rate
  • A contingency plan for unexpected events

However, retirement calculators can make the concept of retirement savings more concrete—and help you take action toward your goals.

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Infographics

Demystifying Three Bond Myths During Rising Rates

Contrary to popular belief, it’s not all doom and gloom for bonds during rising interest rates. Below, we dispel three myths to explain why.

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Bonds During Rising Interest Rates

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Demystifying Three Bond Myths During Rising Rates

Today U.S. Treasury yields, a key return measure for bonds, are over 1% higher than pre-pandemic levels.

  • January 2020: 1.8%
  • May 2022: 2.9*

*As of May 17, 2022

While rising interest rates are often seen to have a negative impact on bonds, the current environment may be beneficial.

In this infographic from New York Life Investments, we debunk three common myths about bonds during rising rate environments to explain why.

Bonds During Rising Interest Rates

To start, here’s a brief introduction on how bond yields are affected by interest rates.

Bond yields are the return investors will earn from a bond over a period of time. Bond investors receive interest for purchasing debt issued by the government or a corporation. For instance, a $1,000 bond with a 3% yield would earn $30 annually.

Rising interest rates directly affect bonds.

When interest rates rise, bond yields typically rise. As investors seek out new bonds that provide higher yields (income), the demand for existing lower-yielding bonds declines. Consequently, the price of these existing bonds typically falls.

Given this backdrop, let’s explore how bonds have historically performed during rising rates, the potential buying opportunities they present, and their long-term performance in a rising rate climate.

Myth #1: “Never Hold Bonds During a Rising Rate Environment”

Answer: False

Even during multiple rising rate periods, bonds have shown positive performance in the last 38 out of 42 years. Let’s take a look at the two most recent rising rate periods:

Bond TypeJun 2004 - Jul 2006Dec 2015 - Jan 2019Average
Bank Loans5.90%5.20%5.50%
Short-Term Bonds2.90%1.10%2.00%
Long-Term Bonds5.60%2.70%4.10%
High-Yield Bonds8.40%7.50%7.90%
Municipal Bonds8.40%2.70%3.80%

Time periods measured from the first Federal Reserve rate hike until one month after the last rate hike, which, on average, is when the effective federal funds rate tends to stabilize.
Source: Morningstar (Feb 2022)

As shown above, every type of bond showed positive performance.

High-yield bonds returned the highest over the last two rising rate periods, averaging 7.9%. Not only that, when equities decline, bonds have often cushioned losses, as seen in the Great Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 market crash.

Myth #2: “This Is the Worst Time to Invest In Bonds”

Answer: False

Rather than doom and gloom, the current environment could present a buying opportunity. Consider how municipal (muni) bonds have performed after historically low periods:

Time PeriodPeak DateTrough DateDrawdown (%)Return (%) 12 Months
Following Trough
Fed Rate Rise (‘04 - ‘06)Mar 17, 2004May 13, 2004-5.298.65
Subprime Mortgage Collapse/
Global Financial Crisis
Jan 23, 2008Oct 16, 2008-11.2219.85
Meredith Whitney
60 Minutes Interview
Oct 12, 2010Jan 17, 2011-6.4615.2
Taper TantrumMay 2, 2013Sep 5, 2013-6.7710.22
Trump Election VictoryJul 6, 2016Dec 1, 2016-5.715.95
COVID-19Mar 9, 2020Mar 23, 2020-10.9413.18
Fed Rate Rise (‘22)Aug 4, 2021Mar 16, 2022-5.59?

Municipal bonds represented by Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index. Data is for the time period 1/1/1994 to 4/30/2022. Meredith Whitney is known as “The Oracle of Wall Street”. In 2010, when Whitney stated that many municipal bonds would default in 2010, it shocked the market.
Source: Morningstar (Apr 2022)

In the 12 months following each trough date, muni bonds rebounded notably.

For example, after falling over 11% during the Global Financial Crisis, munis returned nearly 20% in the 12 months after. Munis also could potentially benefit from other key factors including solid credit fundamentals and the $350 billion federal stimulus to state and local budgets.

Not only that as bond prices dip, a “buy low” opportunity may be present not only in munis, but other areas of the bond market.

Myth #3: “The Long-Term View Looks Dismal”

Answer: False

When taking a long-term perspective, investors could potentially generate more income from their bond holdings in a rising rate environment than they would have otherwise.

Here’s how investors can capitalize on rising rates as bonds mature, given the following assumptions:

  1. Every year, a maturing bond is replaced with a new 5-year bond.
  2. The yield is 20 basis points (bps) higher on each new bond.
ScenarioDescriptionAnnualized Return of Bond Portfolio
After 10 Years
Scenario 1Yields remain unchanged1.80%
Scenario 2Yields fall 100bps across the curve
during Year 1
1.10%
Scenario 3Yields rise 100bps across the curve
during Year 1
2.50%

Hypothetical example, for illustrative purposes only. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%, or 0.0001, and is used to denote the percentage change in a financial instrument.
Source: RBC Global Asset Management (2020)

Over the long term, a rising rate environment more than doubled the bond portfolio’s return compared to the falling rate scenario.

With this in mind, active management and a long-term strategy can potentially benefit investors during today’s rising interest rate environment.

Research shows that active approaches to fixed income have generally outperformed passive strategies by diversifying across the maturity spectrum while proactively balancing risk and return. Active strategies can seek out new opportunities as interest rates shift, addressing a broader scope of the bond market.

The Case for Bonds

With inflation and bond yields on the rise, purchasing newly-issued bonds at higher rates can help offset this impact. While bonds may not seem like the obvious choice for investors amid rising rates, history shows us that they may be worth a closer look.

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