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What is Defined Outcome Investing?

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This infographic is available as a poster.

Defined Outcome Investing Infographic

This infographic is available as a poster.

What is Defined Outcome Investing?

Equities can play a critical role in any investment portfolio thanks to their long-term growth potential. At the same time, this asset class can also present a number of challenges for investors.

Uncertainty around the short to mid-term performance of equities can be a major deterrent for some, while others may find it difficult to select the best stocks based on their unique needs. Fortunately, there is a solution that can help investors overcome these challenges. In today’s infographic from New York Life Investments, we introduce defined outcome investing, and examine how it can help individuals take more control over their equity investments.

Understanding How DOI Works

Defined outcome investing (DOI) is a family of strategies that add a layer of predictability to an investor’s results. This is achieved through two unique aspects.

The first is a customizable risk-return profile, which gives investors the option of receiving either upside enhancement or downside protection features.

Risk-Return FeatureHow it Works
Upside enhancementEnhances the returns of the specified index, up to a cap. The investor is not sheltered from negative returns.
Downside protectionProtects investors from negative returns, up to a certain amount. The investor still participates in market upside, up to a cap.

The second aspect is a predetermined time period—defined outcome strategies carry a maturity date, similar to a fixed income security. Upon reaching its maturity date, a defined outcome strategy expires and the proceeds are paid out to the investor. This feature makes it easier for an investor to time their equity exposures around personal liquidity needs.

To understand the potential of DOI, consider a woman who wishes to make a down payment on a property one year from now. She would like to invest and grow her money in the meantime, but is worried about market volatility. Rather than purchase individual securities or ETFs, she could opt for a defined outcome strategy with downside protection over a one year term.

These features would reduce the likelihood of negative returns over the year, while still giving her exposure to the growth potential of equities.

Types of Defined Outcome Strategies

Investors have three distinct types of defined outcome strategies to choose from, depending on their personal objectives.

Growth Strategies

Growth strategies are designed for investors who:

  • Have a positive outlook on markets
  • Seek high levels of capital appreciation
  • Accept the possibility of negative returns

As implied by their name, these strategies produce enhanced market returns. They do not, however, offer any downside protection. The table below demonstrates how a growth strategy with 50% upside enhancement would perform across a number of scenarios. Assume a maximum return cap of 36%.

Market ScenarioS&P 500 Return (via ETF)Growth Strategy Return Defined Outcome Result
Strongly Positive50%36%Investors reach their maximum return cap of 36%.
Positive20%30%Investors gain 10 percentage points over the index.
Modestly Positive8%12%Investors gain 4 percentage points over the index.
Negative-10%-10%Investors match the index's negative return.

Buffered Strategies

Buffered strategies are a more neutral solution designed for investors who:

  • Have a moderate outlook on markets
  • Seek capital appreciation
  • Require a safety buffer to mitigate losses

Buffered strategies allow investors to participate in equity markets while receiving a specified level of insulation from negative returns. The table below demonstrates how a buffered strategy with 20% loss insulation would perform across a number of scenarios. Assume a maximum return cap of 24%.

Market ScenarioS&P 500 Return (via ETF)Buffered Strategy ReturnDefined Outcome Result
Strongly Positive30%24%Investors reach their maximum return cap of 24%.
Positive8%8%Investors match the positive return of the index.
Negative-20%0%Investors are sheltered from losses within their buffer.
Strongly Negative-30%-10%Any losses beyond the buffer are realized by the investor.

Preservation Strategies

Preservation strategies are best suited for risk-averse investors who:

  • Have a negative outlook on markets
  • Want to manage downside risk
  • Have significant financial obligations in the near future

Preservation strategies provide a different type of downside protection where, instead of a buffer, investors define their maximum loss. The table below demonstrates how a preservation strategy with 95% capital preservation (5% maximum loss) would perform across a number of scenarios. Assume a maximum return cap of 20%.

Market Scenario S&P 500 Return (via ETF)Preservation StrategyDefined Outcome Result
Strongly Positive30%20%Investors reach their maximum return cap of 20%.
Positive8%8%Investors match the positive return of the index.
Negative-3%-3%Investors match negative returns within their maximum loss.
Strongly Negative-30%-5%Investors maintain 95% of their capital.

Accessing Defined Outcome Strategies

Defined outcome strategies are accessed through a vehicle known as a unit investment trust (UIT). UIT’s offer similar levels of transparency and accessibility when compared to ETFs or mutual funds, including daily liquidity and transparency of holdings. So how are they able to offer such compelling risk-return features?

The answer lies in their use of equity options, a type of derivative contract. Equity options give the holder, in this case the UIT, the option of buying (or selling) a stock at a predetermined price on a specific date in the future. These contracts are used to engineer the risk-return features previously described, and are the reason why defined outcome strategies carry a maturity date.

Thus, in order to realize the specified upside enhancement or downside protection features, an investor must hold the UIT for its entire term. While there is no penalty for redeeming a UIT early, the investor will not reach their defined outcome objective.

A More Predictable Approach to Investing

Equities are a powerful tool for long-term growth, but it can be difficult to build a properly-aligned portfolio according to one’s risk tolerance. This becomes especially relevant in today’s uncertain economic environment.

With customizable risk-return profiles and a defined maturity date, defined outcome investing is a powerful solution that can support a variety of financial goals through different phases of the market cycle. Whether its maximizing returns or saving for retirement, investors can now take greater control over their financial future.

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Infographics

How Heart Health Can Keep Your Portfolio Beating

Through thematic investing strategies lies an opportunity to invest in a long-term, powerful trend that impacts nearly one in two people: heart health

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Heart Health

This infographic is available as a poster.

Visualizing the Big Business of Heart Health

Heart health affects almost one out of every two Americans, creating implications on both personal and economic levels. At the same time, this means that there is an opportunity for investors to get behind heart-health innovations and holistic solutions.

In this infographic from New York Life Investments, we explore this growing ecosystem and how it can benefit both the future of health and your portfolio.

Why Invest in Heart Health?

Each day, the heart beats 100,000 times—equal to a staggering 3.5 billion beats in a lifetime.

However, this crucial organ is affected by many ailments. Heart disease tops the list as the number one killer among Americans: 650,000 people in the U.S. die of heart disease annually.

In response, multiple industries from Big Tech to wellness are actively working on heart health solutions. By 2030, the cardiovascular disease tech market is projected to reach $40B, making it a growing market for investors to dive into.

Below, we explore some case studies of companies that are aligned with healthy hearts and preventative solutions.

The Fight to Detect Heart Disease

Irregular heartbeats are a key symptom of stroke and hospitalization. In fact, the most common and costly reason for preventable hospital stays is heart failure:

  • 1.1M hospital stays annually
  • $11.2B total annual costs

To combat this, Apple and Stanford Medicine launched the Heart Health Study to develop an algorithm that detects irregular activity.

How the Apple Heart Study app worked

  • Participants wore Apple Watches that detected irregular heart rhythms, known as atrial fibrillation
  • 2,161 (0.52%) were notified of irregular heart rhythms, prompted to schedule a telehealth consultation, and were sent ECG patches to wear for a week

Of these notified participants…

  • 34% Experienced atrial fibrillation
  • 76% Sought medical attention

Along with the algorithm’s 84% positive predictive value, the Apple Heart Health study promoted higher engagement with health services and telehealth providers. Heart health is big business, and Big Tech is only getting started.

Innovating the Tools for Living

Type 2 diabetes is another major risk factor for heart disease. To help fight against diabetes, Fitbit is at the intersection of heart health and technology with glucose monitoring.

Among the projects it has under development:

  • $6 million investment in Sano, a company developing a coin-sized patch for glucose tracking
  • Partnering with Dexcom to monitor how physical activity influences diabetes in a pilot program

While it’s clear that preventative tools are critical on an individual level, their impact on a community-wide scale is striking. For example, for every $1 invested in bike and walking trails, almost $3 in health costs are prevented.

Reversing the Trend: Why It’s a Good Move

A key part of preventing heart failure is to get moving—both before and after critical issues arise.

Importantly, activewear has become one of the top performing categories in fashion since quarantine took hold. As a leader in activewear, Lululemon is designing smart clothing with innovative and lightweight materials.

Another avenue they have ventured into is home fitness, with its acquisition of Mirror in July, 2020 for $500 million. Health and wellness have boomed in the age of COVID-19, and Lululemon’s shares have climbed significantly:

Price Return (2020)

  • LULU: 49.6%
  • S&P 500: 16.3%
  • DJIA: 7.3%

It’s clear that activewear is deeply interwoven into consumer demand.

The Future of Life-Saving Strategies

The problem with heart disease is that the related costs are only intensifying.

By 2035, the direct medical costs linked to cardiovascular disease are estimated to top $748 billion, while indirect costs are projected to reach $368 billion.

But this also means that there’s a promising area of investment opportunity—with the potential for life-changing impact. As societies are hit with the twin threats of COVID-19 and aging populations, the demand for integrative heart solutions is more urgent than ever.

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Infographics

What Lies Ahead: 2021 Economic Projections and the Year in Review

Are 2021 economic projections looking up? As we look back on a historic year, this graphic outlines key growth forecasts for the year ahead.

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What Lies Ahead? 2021 Global Economic Projections

View the high resolution version of this infographic. Buy the poster.

With over 1.4 million deaths worldwide, COVID-19 has impacted nearly every corner of society.

Yet, hope seems suddenly near. Crucial vaccine developments are emerging, with many of the 320 vaccines in advanced trials. Still, questions remain around the timing and effectiveness of the potential vaccine. With this in mind, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that this year, global real GDP will fall –4.4%, bouncing back 5.2% in 2021.

As we look back on a historic year, this infographic from New York Life Investments traces the notable events of 2020, along with growth forecasts for the year ahead.

2020: Year in Review

From a deadly virus to U.S. elections, how did we get to where we are now?

Since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, $12 trillion in global fiscal response helped stabilize the economy. Despite financial markets facing their sharpest drop in 30 years, the S&P 500 rebounded in record speed—recovering losses in under four months.

 S&P 500 Price Returns Global COVID-19 Cases
January-1%27
February-9%11,948
March-21%87,091
April-11%883,804
May-7%3.23M
June-5%6.15M
July0%10.48M
August7%17.63M
September3%25.57M
October0%34.09M
November11.7%*46.17M

Source: European CDC via Our World in Data
*As of November 27, 2020

In April, oil prices dropped into negative territory for the first time ever. The combination of both a demand shock and supply shock led oil futures to fall to -$37.63. Since then, oil prices recovered modestly, hovering close to $45 in November.

In another historic event, wildfires ravaged through the West Coast of the U.S., burning five million acres across Oregon, California, and Washington. Meanwhile, COVID-19 cases continued to climb. Global reported cases exceeded the 25 million mark by September.

Finally, on November 16, Moderna announced that its COVID-19 vaccine was 94.5% effective, just days after the 2020 president-elect, Joe Biden was announced.

Despite the number of record-breaking incidents over the year, the tech-dominated S&P 500 held steady. Here is how key economic figures have materialized against the backdrop of 2020:

1. Government Debt

Government debt rose 20% relative to GDP in advanced economies, while debt has grown at a slower pace in emerging market and low-income countries.

Gross Debt Position (% of GDP)20192020
Advanced economies105%125%
Emerging market and middle-income economies53%62%
Low-income developing countries43%49%

Source: IMF

2. Inflation

Overall, inflation was lower than pre-pandemic levels, sitting at around 1.5%.

While commodities and medical supplies saw their prices rise, weak global demand for overall goods cancelled out these inflationary effects.

3. Sector Performance

Service sectors were hit among the hardest as social distancing measures were enacted to stave off the pandemic.

In the first half of 2020, accommodation, arts, and entertainment sectors fell close to 15% compared to 2019. Meanwhile, banks were cushioned with cash reserves in the event of unexpected risks, breaking roughly even in year-over-year growth.

While the economy has encountered numerous challenges, the IMF expresses cautious optimism for the year ahead.

2021: Global Growth Outlook

Since the IMF’s June projections, economic growth forecasts have somewhat improved. Primarily, optimism is being driven from Q2 GDP growth that exceeded expectations.

Global Growth ForecastsApril JuneOctober
2020-3.0%-4.9%-4.4%
20215.8%5.4%5.2%

Source: IMF

By contrast, pre-pandemic projections for 2020 and 2021 were 3.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

Over 2020, China enacted several strict measures to contain COVID-19 early in the outbreak, a key factor behind its economic momentum. Meanwhile, India is projected to rebound 8.8%—higher than any other country in 2021, according to IMF-reported countries.

While several factors remain uncertain, what will pave the way for a global recovery?

Analysis of a Successful Global Recovery

Growth projections are improving, but economic success will hinge on these three layers.

 3 Layers for Economic Success 
1The path of COVID-19Public health measures & the race for a vaccine

Impact on domestic economic activity
2Global consumer demandTourism activity

Remittance flows
3Financial market sentiment and capital flowsSupply disruptions

Policy effectiveness

To prevent further unwanted outcomes, it will be essential that policy support is not withdrawn too soon.

The Road to Recovery

With these factors in mind, how could global conditions transform in the months ahead?

Best Case ScenarioWorst Case Scenario
Accelerating global demand

Maintaining liquidity for countries in need

International cooperation

Fair and equal vaccine
implementation across countries
Weakened economic activity

Tightening lending conditions for countries in need

Protectionist measures

Country-level vaccine disparities

In the face of these obstacles, the health of the global economy rests on sufficient consumer demand, capital flows and COVID-19 containment. With news of vaccine developments underway, the outlook is appearing a bit brighter.

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