Markets in a Minute
U.S. Dollar Performance After U.S. Elections
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U.S. Dollar Performance After U.S. Elections
News outlets often draw correlations between U.S. elections and market performance. In turn, some investors opt for more conservative portfolios until the election uncertainty is overcome. But how much influence do elections really have?
In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we show U.S. dollar performance after U.S. elections to illustrate that there is no clear trend between the two.
What is the U.S. Dollar Index?
To start, we used the U.S. Dollar Index to track performance, which measures the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six currencies.
| Currency | Weight |
|---|---|
| Euro | 57.6% |
| Japanese Yen | 13.6% |
| British Pound | 11.9% |
| Canadian Dollar | 9.1% |
| Swedish Krina | 4.2% |
| Swiss Franc | 3.6% |
Source: Intercontinental Exchange
Any changes in these respective currencies can affect the performance of the U.S. dollar.
Post-Election Performance
For each U.S. election from 1988 to 2016, we calculated the U.S. dollar index’s percentage change since election day. Changes were tracked over the course of a year, or 250 trading days.
There was no clear trend in U.S. dollar performance after U.S. elections. Here’s another look at the data, this time showing the range in changes over the year and percentage change at the end of the period.
The U.S. dollar finished up in four years, and down in the other four years. The years after the 1988, 1996, and 2008 elections saw the largest fluctuations in values.
In 1989, the U.S. dollar surged due to three factors:
- High interest rates, which attracted foreign investment
- Political instability in West Germany and Japan
- Strength of American stock and bond markets
In the period after the 1996 election, the dollar climbed again. While foreign currencies collapsed amid the Asian financial crisis, the U.S. economy enjoyed rapid growth and was seen as a safe haven for investors.
On the flip side, the U.S. dollar saw significant declines in the year after the 2008 election. The European Central Bank lowered rates in response to the global financial crisis, raising confidence in the euro and causing the U.S. dollar to fall.
What Investors Can Focus On
In each case above, significant movements were caused by macroeconomic factors, rather than the outcome of the U.S. election.
Here are a few factors that can have a direct impact on market performance:
- Inflation decreases the value of a dollar over time. Investors should consider how prevailing interest rates compare to inflation, and look for assets that build wealth over time.
- Unemployment rates have widespread impact. When unemployment is high, economic output and consumer spending are reduced.
- Economic growth signals healthy demand, and may boost corporate profits and drive up asset prices.
While elections can cause investors to change their asset mix, it’s important for investors to focus on long-term, broader factors that directly influence the market.
Markets in a Minute
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
The global economy faces an uncertain future in 2023. This year, GDP growth is projected to be 2.9%—down from 3.2% in 2022.
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.
High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.
For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.
The map shows GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.
2023 GDP Growth Outlook
The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.
This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to China’s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.
With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwinds—and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.
| Country / Region | 2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected) | 2022 Real GDP % Change (Projected) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇱 Albania | 2.5% | 4.0% |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 2.6% | 4.7% |
| 🇦🇴 Angola | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda | 5.6% | 6.0% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina* | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 🇦🇲 Armenia | 3.5% | 7.0% |
| 🇦🇼 Aruba | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia* | 1.6% | 3.8% |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 1.0% | 4.7% |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | 2.5% | 3.7% |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 6.0% | 7.2% |
| 🇧🇧 Barbados | 5.0% | 10.5% |
| 🇧🇾 Belarus | 0.2% | -7.0% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 0.4% | 2.4% |
| 🇧🇿 Belize | 2.0% | 3.5% |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | 6.2% | 5.7% |
| 🇧🇹 Bhutan | 4.3% | 4.0% |
| 🇧🇴 Bolivia | 3.2% | 3.8% |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil* | 1.2% | 2.8% |
| 🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| 🇧🇮 Burundi | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| 🇨🇲 Cameroon | 4.6% | 3.8% |
| 🇰🇭 Cambodia | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada* | 1.5% | 3.3% |
| 🇨🇫 Central African Republic | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| 🇹🇩 Chad | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | -1.0% | 2.0% |
| 🇨🇳 China* | 5.3% | 3.2% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 2.2% | 7.6% |
| 🇰🇲 Comoros | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | 3.5% | 5.9% |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo | 6.7% | 6.1% |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| 🇩🇯 Djibouti | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| 🇩🇲 Dominica | 4.9% | 6.0% |
| 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic | 4.5% | 5.3% |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt* | 4.0% | 6.6% |
| 🇸🇻 El Salvador | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea | -3.1% | 5.8% |
| 🇪🇷 Eritrea | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 🇪🇪 Estonia | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| 🇸🇿 Eswatini | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| 🇫🇯 Fiji | 6.9% | 12.5% |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 🇫🇷 France* | 0.7% | 2.5% |
| 🇲🇰 North Macedonia | 3.0% | |
| 🇬🇦 Gabon | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | 4.0% | 9.0% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany* | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | 2.8% | 3.6% |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | 1.8% | 5.2% |
| 🇬🇩 Grenada | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 🇬🇹 Guatemala | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| 🇬🇾 Guyana | 25.2% | 57.8% |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti | 0.5% | -1.2% |
| 🇭🇳 Honduras | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR | 3.9% | -0.8% |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 1.8% | 5.7% |
| 🇮🇸 Iceland | 2.9% | 5.1% |
| 🇮🇳 India* | 6.1% | 6.8% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia* | 4.8% | 5.3% |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 4.0% | 9.3% |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 4.0% | 9.0% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran* | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 3.0% | 6.1% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy* | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| 🇯🇲 Jamaica | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan* | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan* | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| 🇰🇮 Kiribati | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea* | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 🇽🇰 Kosovo | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 2.6% | 8.7% |
| 🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic | 3.2% | 3.8% |
| 🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R. | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| 🇱🇻 Latvia | 1.6% | 2.5% |
| 🇱🇸 Lesotho | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | 4.2% | 3.7% |
| 🇱🇾 Libya | 17.9% | -18.4% |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| 🇱🇺 Luxembourg | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 🇲🇴 Macao SAR | 56.7% | -22.4% |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| 🇲🇼 Malawi | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia* | 4.4% | 5.4% |
| 🇲🇻 Maldives | 6.1% | 8.7% |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| 🇲🇹 Malta | 3.3% | 6.2% |
| 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| 🇲🇺 Mauritius | 5.4% | 6.1% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico* | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| 🇫🇲 Micronesia | 2.9% | -0.6% |
| 🇲🇩 Moldova | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| 🇲🇳 Mongolia | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| 🇲🇪 Montenegro | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | 3.1% | 08% |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| 🇲🇲 Myanmar | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| 🇳🇦 Namibia | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| 🇳🇷 Nauru | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 🇳🇵 Nepal | 5.0% | 4.2% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands* | 0.6% | 4.5% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| 🇳🇮 Nicaragua | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| 🇳🇪 Niger | 7.3% | 6.7% |
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria* | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 2.6% | 3.6% |
| 🇴🇲 Oman | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan* | 2.0% | 6.0% |
| 🇵🇼 Palau | 12.3% | -2.8% |
| 🇵🇦 Panama | 4.0% | 7.5% |
| 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay | 4.3% | 0.2% |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines* | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| 🇵🇱 Poland* | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico | 0.4% | 4.8% |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| 🇨🇬 Republic of Congo | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia* | 0.3% | -3.4% |
| 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| 🇼🇸 Samoa | 4.0% | -5.0% |
| 🇸🇲 San Marino | 0.8% | 3.1% |
| 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia* | 2.6% | 7.6% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 8.1% | 4.7% |
| 🇷🇸 Serbia | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| 🇸🇨 Seychelles | 5.2% | 10.9% |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 2.3% | 3.0% |
| 🇸🇰 Slovak Republic | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| 🇸🇮 Slovenia | 1.7% | 5.7% |
| 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands | 2.6% | -4.5% |
| 🇸🇴 Somalia | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa* | 1.2% | 2.1% |
| 🇸🇸 South Sudan | 5.6% | 6.5% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain* | 1.1% | 4.3% |
| 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | -3.0% | -8.7% |
| 🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis | 4.8% | 9.8% |
| 🇱🇨 St. Lucia | 5.8% | 9.1% |
| 🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| 🇸🇩 Sudan | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| 🇸🇷 Suriname | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | -0.1% | 2.6% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| 🇹🇼 Taiwan | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| 🇹🇯 Tajikistan | 4.0% | 5.5% |
| 🇹🇿 Tanzania | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand* | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| 🇧🇸 The Bahamas | 4.1% | 8.0% |
| 🇬🇲 The Gambia | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| 🇹🇬 Togo | 6.2% | 5.4% |
| 🇹🇴 Tonga | 2.9% | -2.0% |
| 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia | 1.6% | 2.2% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey* | 3.0% | 5.0% |
| 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| 🇹🇻 Tuvalu | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| 🇺🇬 Uganda | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | N/A | -35.0% |
| 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates | 4.2% | 5.1% |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom* | -0.6% | 3.6% |
| 🇺🇲 U.S.* | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay | 3.6% | 5.3% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 4.7% | 5.2% |
| 🇻🇺 Vanuatu | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| 🇻🇪 Venezuela | 6.5% | 6.0% |
| 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 6.2% | 7.0% |
| West Bank and Gaza | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| 🇾🇪 Yemen | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| 🇿🇲 Zambia | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 2.8% | 3.0% |
*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.
The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.
Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or ‘Patagonia-vest’ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.
Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.
Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.
China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.
A Long Way to Go
The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.
Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.
On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.
As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.
Markets in a Minute
Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022
U.S. retirement assets have faced challenging conditions amid market headwinds—but over the last decade these assets have nearly doubled.
This infographic is available as a poster.
Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022
Today, many people are questioning the effects of high inflation on their retirement assets.
This Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments charts the state of U.S. retirement assets to show how Americans are building their retirement savings, and where these assets are being drawn from.
U.S. Retirement Assets: Where it Stands Today
As of 2022, there was over $33 trillion being held in U.S. retirement assets.
For perspective, that’s about 31% of all household financial assets in America and nearly double the amount seen a decade ago. In the table below, we show how this breaks down by retirement asset type, using data from the Investment Company Institute:
| Type of Retirement Asset | 2022* | 2012 | 2002 | 1992 | 1982 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRAs | $11.7T | $5.8T | $2.5T | $872B | $67B |
| DC Plans | $9.3T | $5.2T | $2.6T | $1.1T | $264B |
| State and Local Government DB Plans | $5.1T | $3.2T | $2.1T | $958B | $260B |
| Private-Sector DB Plans | $3.2T | $2.7T | $1.7T | $1.1T | $479B |
| Federal DB Plans | $2.2T | $1.3T | $800B | $411B | $99B |
| Annuities | $2.2T | $1.7T | $899B | $473B | $180B |
| Total | $33.7T | $19.9T | $10.5T | $5.0T | $1.3T |
*As of Q2 2022.
As seen above, individual retirement accounts (IRAs) hold the most retirement assets, at 34% of the total. Since 2012, they have doubled, jumping from $5.8 trillion to $11.7 trillion in 2022.
Today, about 37% of Americans hold an IRA.
With $9.3 trillion in assets, defined contribution (DC) plans are the second-greatest source of savings. These type of plans have the employee make contributions that are automatically deducted from their paycheck. Here, employers have the option to make contributions. Like IRAs, they have grown considerably in the last 10 years.
Defined benefit (DB) plans, meanwhile, have declined in usage, especially in the private sector. In 1982, private-sector DB plans made up almost 40% of U.S. retirement assets. In 2022, they accounted for under 10% of these assets.
Overall, retirement assets have declined in 2022 due to weak market performance—after a record year in 2021 driven by higher contributions, a strong market, and other factors.
U.S. Financial Security in 2022
With these factors at play, how are Americans feeling about their financial security, and how is this impacting their retirement outlook?
In one Ipsos survey, just 56% of Americans surveyed said they felt good about their overall level of financial security.
When it comes to their long-term outlook, chief among concerns is inflation. Over half surveyed said that it will likely have a big impact on their ability to save for retirement and meet other long-term financial goals. Rising interest rates and medical costs are other areas of concern, with about one-third saying they will have a large impact on achieving these outcomes.
Meanwhile, 59% of Americans said they feel confident they have enough savings to enjoy a comfortable retirement. Of these, Baby Boomers feel most confident at 70%, while Gen Z (48%) feels least confident.
The good news is that inflation looks to have hit its peak in the summer of 2022. Still, reaching a 2-3% target may take a longer period of time. With this in mind, looking to investment strategies that include floating-rate bonds and real estate, infrastructure, and value equities may help insulate retirement assets from market fluctations and inflation.
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