The $109 Trillion Global Stock Market in One Chart

Global equity markets have nearly tripled in size since 2003, climbing to $109 trillion in total market capitalization.

Over the last several decades, the growth in money supply and ultra-low interest rates have underpinned rising asset values across economies.

Given this backdrop, the above graphic shows the size of the global stock market in 2023, based on data from the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA).

The Global Stock Market, by Share

With the world’s deepest capital markets, the U.S. makes up 42.5% of global equity market capitalization, outpacing the next closest economy, the European Union by a significant margin.

Here are the world’s major equity markets based on global market cap share as of Q2 2023:

Data as of Q2 2023. Numbers may not total 100 due to rounding..

Today, U.S. equity markets total over $46.2 trillion in market capitalization.

Compared to other rich nations, U.S. stocks have often outperformed over the last several decades. If an investor put $100 in the S&P 500 in 1990 this investment would have grown to about $2,000 in 2023, or four-fold the returns seen in other developed countries.

The second-largest equity market is the European Union at 11.1% of global share, followed by China, at 10.6%.

In the last 20 years, China’s economy has increased by roughly 12-fold, reaching $19.4 trillion this year. China’s equity markets have also grown considerably, fueled by the incorporation of Chinese domestic stocks into the MSCI Emerging Market Index in 2018, and earlier, with the internationalization of its equity markets in 2002.

Japan’s equity markets account for 5.4% of the global share, followed by Hong Kong, at 4%.

The Future Investment Landscape

Goldman Sachs projects that U.S. equity market capitalization will fall to 35% of the overall global market by 2030.

Meanwhile, emerging markets, including China and India, are collectively forecast to reach the 35% mark in the same timeframe. By 2050, the EM share is anticipated to far surpass the U.S., rising to 47% of global stock markets.

Numbers may not total 100 due to rounding.

The first factor underscoring this shift is the rapid growth projected for emerging economies.

Historically, as GDP per capita grows, capital markets in an economy become more sophisticated. We can see this in richer countries, which tend to have higher equitization of their markets.

India is projected to rise the fastest globally. By 2030, it is projected to account for 4.1% of global equity market cap. Furthermore, by 2050, this share is projected to outrank the euro area due to strong GDP per capita growth and demographic drivers.

The second factor, although to a lesser extent, is emerging market rising valuation multiples driven by higher GDP per capita. Richer countries, as seen in the U.S., often trade at higher earnings multiples because they are viewed to have lower risk.

Implications for Investors

What does this mean from an investment standpoint?

While the U.S. has outperformed in recent decades, it may not mean that it will continue on this trend, according to Goldman Sachs. Given the structural shifts stemming from growing populations and GDP growth, investors may consider diversifying their portfolios geographically looking ahead.

Market Volatility at its Lowest Point Since 2020

Market volatility has been remarkably low in 2023, apart from the brief shock following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this year.

In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)—a primary gauge for measuring U.S. equity volatility—has fallen to lows not seen since before the pandemic.

This graphic shows how today’s market volatility compares to the last two decades, and the factors that may explain its steadiness, based on data from CBOE.

How is Market Volatility Measured?

The most widely used index to track market volatility is the VIX.

In short, it measures the market’s expectation for price changes in the S&P 500. When investor uncertainty is high, the VIX spikes. For this reason, it serves as a barometer of fear in the market and often has a negative correlation to returns. For instance, when the VIX hit a peak on March 16, 2020, the S&P 500 fell 12% in one day.

Market Volatility: All-Time Highs and Lows

To put today’s market volatility in context, here are the market’s peak periods of volatility, through highs and lows:

We can see in the above chart that the VIX skyrocketed in 2020 and 2008 at the height of recession fears.

By contrast market volatility hit all-time lows during 2017, when corporate profitability was high and the S&P 500 was in the middle of the second-longest bull run in history:

When investors have muted reactions to the market’s outlook, often market volatility is lower—reflecting mixed reactions to the market instead of a unanimous, surprise reaction to economic data or other factors that could sway investor behavior.

2023’s Volatility in Context

In September, the VIX declined to 12.8, the lowest point since January 2020. Since then, it has hovered near these levels as investors scale back recession fears, and factor in the likelihood of the U.S. economy achieving a soft landing. To date, the S&P 500 is up almost 17%.

Many factors are influencing the market’s relative calmness. Inflation has been moderating, falling at 3.7% in August, down from a peak of 9.1% seen in June last year.

Labor market strength has also played a key role. The unemployment rate hovers near five-decade lows, and wage growth remains above historical averages at 4.3% annually as of August.

Despite 11 interest rate hikes since March 2022, consumer spending remains strong, although savings have declined considerably over the year. Household spending makes up roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP, a key driver of economic output.

Together, these factors, among others, are influencing investor sentiment. Some may argue that investors are complacent as economic data could be weakening, but so far the resilience of the economy is supporting lower market volatility.