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The World Macroeconomic Risk Map in 2020

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This Markets in a Minute Chart is available as a poster.

Macroeconomic Risk by Country

This Markets in a Minute Chart is available as a poster.

The World Macroeconomic Risk Map in 2020

In times of crisis, risk is thrown under the microscope and former assumptions are reassessed.

From the political climate to the flow of international trade, the impact of COVID-19 has destabilized macroeconomic conditions in many jurisdictions globally.

The above Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments is a macroeconomic risk map of 241 countries and regions as global economies shift.

Measuring Risk

Data for the risk map comes from Euler Hermes, and it scores macroeconomic risk primarily based on the following categories: political risk, structural business environment, commercial risk, and financing risk.

The political risk category, for example, takes into account the concentration of power in a country. It also assesses the degree of independence of national institutions and social cohesion.

In total, a countryโ€™s macroeconomic risk profile is determined, representing the broad risk of non-payment of companies within a country.

Highest Macroeconomic Risk

Given the sheer weight of the current economic climate, which countries have the highest macroeconomic risk?

CountryRisk Level
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ซ AfghanistanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ AlbaniaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด AngolaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท ArgentinaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ ArmeniaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ AzerbaijanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ BangladeshHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง BarbadosHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ BelarusHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ BelizeHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ด BoliviaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia and HerzegovinaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ BurundiHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฒ CameroonHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde IslandsHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ซ Central African RepublicHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ ChadHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ ComorosHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Congo (Democratic Rep Of)High Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Congo (People's Rep Of)High Risk
CubaHigh Risk
DjiboutiHigh Risk
Equatorial GuineaHigh Risk
EritreaHigh Risk
FijiHigh Risk
GabonHigh Risk
GambiaHigh Risk
GeorgiaHigh Risk
Guinea (Rep Of)High Risk
Guinea BissauHigh Risk
HaitiHigh Risk
IranHigh Risk
IraqHigh Risk
KazakhstanHigh Risk
KyrgyzstanHigh Risk
LaosHigh Risk
LebanonHigh Risk
LiberiaHigh Risk
LibyaHigh Risk
MadagascarHigh Risk
MalawiHigh Risk
MaldivesHigh Risk
MaliHigh Risk
Marshall IslandsHigh Risk
MauritaniaHigh Risk
MoldovaHigh Risk
MongoliaHigh Risk
MontenegroHigh Risk
MozambiqueHigh Risk
Myanmar (Burma)High Risk
NauruHigh Risk
NepalHigh Risk
NicaraguaHigh Risk
NigerHigh Risk
NigeriaHigh Risk
North KoreaHigh Risk
PakistanHigh Risk
Papua New GuineaHigh Risk
SeychellesHigh Risk
Sierra LeoneHigh Risk
Solomon IslandsHigh Risk
SomaliaHigh Risk
South SudanHigh Risk
Sri LankaHigh Risk
SudanHigh Risk
SurinameHigh Risk
SyriaHigh Risk
TajikistanHigh Risk
Timor LesteHigh Risk
TogoHigh Risk
TongaHigh Risk
TurkmenistanHigh Risk
UkraineHigh Risk
UzbekistanHigh Risk
VenezuelaHigh Risk
YemenHigh Risk
ZambiaHigh Risk
ZimbabweHigh Risk

Argentinaโ€™s soaring inflation is estimated to reach 40.7% in 2020. Coupled with a poorly-timed debt restructuring, its economy is anticipated to shrink 12% over the course of the year. Yet for all its hardship, the country managed to send COVID-19 relief money to its citizens in just three days.

Meanwhile, countries including Venezuela and Bolivia are at steeper risk, compounded by their heavy reliance on commodity exports, such as oil.

Medium to Sensitive Risk

Overall, roughly 100 jurisdictions live within this mid-range risk threshold.

CountryRisk Level
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ผ ArubaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ BotswanaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท BrazilMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ BulgariaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ChinaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท CroatiaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ CyprusMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican RepublicMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป El SalvadorMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท GreeceMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡น GuatemalaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ HungaryMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ IcelandMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ IndiaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ IndonesiaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด JordanMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ KuwaitMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ MoroccoMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡บ NiueMedium Risk
ParaguayMedium Risk
PhilippinesMedium Risk
QatarMedium Risk
RomaniaMedium Risk
RwandaMedium Risk
Saudi ArabiaMedium Risk
ThailandMedium Risk
Trinidad & TobagoMedium Risk
AnguillaMedium Risk
BahamasMedium Risk
BruneiMedium Risk
ChileMedium Risk
ColombiaMedium Risk
Costa RicaMedium Risk
French PolynesiaMedium Risk
Hong KongMedium Risk
IsraelMedium Risk
LatviaMedium Risk
LithuaniaMedium Risk
MacaoMedium Risk
MalaysiaMedium Risk
MauritiusMedium Risk
MexicoMedium Risk
MontserratMedium Risk
PanamaMedium Risk
PeruMedium Risk
PolandMedium Risk
PortugalMedium Risk
Puerto RicoMedium Risk
SloveniaMedium Risk
United Arab EmiratesMedium Risk
UruguayMedium Risk
AlgeriaSensitive Risk
Antigua & BarbudaSensitive Risk
BahrainSensitive Risk
BeninSensitive Risk
BhutanSensitive Risk
Burkina FasoSensitive Risk
CambodiaSensitive Risk
Cook IslandsSensitive Risk
Cรดte d'IvoireSensitive Risk
CuracaoSensitive Risk
DominicaSensitive Risk
EcuadorSensitive Risk
EgyptSensitive Risk
EswatiniSensitive Risk
EthiopiaSensitive Risk
GhanaSensitive Risk
GrenadaSensitive Risk
GuyanaSensitive Risk
HondurasSensitive Risk
JamaicaSensitive Risk
KenyaSensitive Risk
KiribatiSensitive Risk
LesothoSensitive Risk
MicronesiaSensitive Risk
NamibiaSensitive Risk
North MacedoniaSensitive Risk
OmanSensitive Risk
PalauSensitive Risk
RussiaSensitive Risk
SamoaSensitive Risk
Sao Tome & PrincipeSensitive Risk
SenegalSensitive Risk
SerbiaSensitive Risk
South AfricaSensitive Risk
St. Kitts & NevisSensitive Risk
St. LuciaSensitive Risk
St. MaartenSensitive Risk
St. Vincent & The GrenadinesSensitive Risk
TanzaniaSensitive Risk
TunisiaSensitive Risk
TurkeySensitive Risk
TuvaluSensitive Risk
UgandaSensitive Risk
VanuatuSensitive Risk
VietnamSensitive Risk

As Russia contends with sanctions and counter-sanctions with the West, its political conditions face greater risks. Alongside this, increased involvement in the Syria crisis also factors negatively.

On the other hand, Indonesiaโ€™s strong banking system and solid fiscal policies are met with interest rates that fall around 4%. This means that its central bank has leeway to lower interest rates to help spur growth.

Lowest Macroeconomic Risk

As the dust begins to settle, which countries are positioned with the least risk?

Franceโ€™s high quality education system and diversified economy provide key strengths. Sweden, also with a highly educated population, is cushioned with solid public finances. Also, its R&D spending is among the highest globally.

Meanwhile, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have favorable factors at play.

CountryRisk Level
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ธ American SamoaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฒ BermudaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฌ British Virgin IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡พ Cayman IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Christmas IslandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡จ Cocos (Keeling) IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech RepublicLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Falkland IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ด Faroe IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฎ GibraltarLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฑ GreenlandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡บ GuamLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช IrelandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น ItalyLow Risk
๐Ÿ—พ JapanLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น MaltaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡น MayotteLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡จ New CaledoniaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ซ Norfolk IslandLow Risk
Northern Mariana IslandsLow Risk
Pitcairn IslandsLow Risk
San MarinoLow Risk
SlovakiaLow Risk
South KoreaLow Risk
SpainLow Risk
St HelenaLow Risk
St. Pierre Et MiquelonLow Risk
Svalbard & Jan MayenLow Risk
TaiwanLow Risk
TokelauLow Risk
Turks & CaicosLow Risk
US Virgin IslandsLow Risk
Wallis & FutunaLow Risk
AndorraLow Risk
AntarcticaLow Risk
AustraliaLow Risk
AustriaLow Risk
BelgiumLow Risk
BES Islands (Bonaire, St Eustatius, Saba)
Low Risk
Bouvet IslandLow Risk
British Indian Ocean TerritoryLow Risk
CanadaLow Risk
DenmarkLow Risk
EstoniaLow Risk
FinlandLow Risk
FranceLow Risk
French GuianaLow Risk
French Southern TerritoryLow Risk
GermanyLow Risk
GuadeloupeLow Risk
Heard and McDonald IslandsLow Risk
LiechtensteinLow Risk
LuxembourgLow Risk
MartiniqueLow Risk
MonacoLow Risk
NetherlandsLow Risk
New ZealandLow Risk
NorwayLow Risk
ReunionLow Risk
SingaporeLow Risk
South Georgia/Sandwich IslandsLow Risk
SwedenLow Risk
SwitzerlandLow Risk
United KingdomLow Risk
United StatesLow Risk
US Minor Outlying IslandsLow Risk
Vatican CityLow Risk

How about the U.S.? Backed by the worldโ€™s reserve currency, its strengths rest on its diverse GDP and low interest rates. However, the implications of high corporate debtโ€”climbing to $10.2 trillionโ€”weighs significantly, not to mention increasing political fragmentation.

As central banks in wealthy countries press ahead, the end of stimulus packages still seems like a distant prospect. Together, rich nations are projected to borrow a combined 17% of their GDP in this year alone. This, matched with low inflation, is helping to defend economies from collapse.

Still, it raises a key questionโ€”is this necessary for a sustainable global recovery ahead?

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Markets in a Minute

Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023

The global economy faces an uncertain future in 2023. This year, GDP growth is projected to be 2.9%โ€”down from 3.2% in 2022.

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GDP Growth

Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023

Since Russiaโ€™s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.

High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.

For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.

The map shows GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.

2023 GDP Growth Outlook

The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.

This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to Chinaโ€™s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.

With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwindsโ€”and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.

Country / Region2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected)2022 Real GDP % Change (Projected)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Albania2.5%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria2.6%4.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด Angola3.4%2.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Antigua and Barbuda5.6%6.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina*2.0%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Armenia3.5%7.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ผ Aruba2.0%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia*1.6%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria1.0%4.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan2.5%3.7%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ญ Bahrain3.0%3.4%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh6.0%7.2%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง Barbados5.0%10.5%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus0.2%-7.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium0.4%2.4%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ Belize2.0%3.5%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฏ Benin6.2%5.7%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡น Bhutan4.3%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ด Bolivia3.2%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia and Herzegovina2.0%2.4%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ Botswana4.0%4.1%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil*1.2%2.8%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei Darussalam3.3%1.2%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria3.0%2.9%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ Burkina Faso4.8%3.6%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ Burundi4.1%3.3%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cabo Verde4.8%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Cameroon4.6%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia6.2%5.1%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada*1.5%3.3%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ซ Central African Republic3.0%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ Chad3.4%3.3%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile-1.0%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China*5.3%3.2%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia2.2%7.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Comoros3.4%3.0%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ท Costa Rica2.9%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Cรดte d'Ivoire6.5%5.5%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia3.5%5.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Cyprus2.5%3.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic1.5%1.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Democratic Republic of the Congo6.7%6.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark0.6%2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Djibouti5.0%3.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Dominica4.9%6.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican Republic4.5%5.3%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador2.7%2.9%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt*4.0%6.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป El Salvador1.7%2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ถ Equatorial Guinea-3.1%5.8%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ท Eritrea2.9%2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia1.8%1.0%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Eswatini1.8%2.4%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡น Ethiopia5.3%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Fiji6.9%12.5%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland0.5%2.1%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France*0.7%2.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ North Macedonia3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Gabon3.7%2.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia4.0%9.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany*0.1%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana2.8%3.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece1.8%5.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Grenada3.6%3.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡น Guatemala3.2%3.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ณ Guinea5.1%4.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ผ Guinea-Bissau4.5%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡พ Guyana25.2%57.8%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti0.5%-1.2%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ณ Honduras3.5%3.4%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong SAR3.9%-0.8%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary1.8%5.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland2.9%5.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India*6.1%6.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia*4.8%5.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraq4.0%9.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland4.0%9.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran*2.0%3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel3.0%6.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy*0.6%3.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Jamaica3.0%2.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan*1.8%1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan2.7%2.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan*4.3%2.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Kenya5.1%5.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Kiribati2.4%1.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea*1.7%2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฝ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Kosovo3.5%2.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ Kuwait2.6%8.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Kyrgyz Republic3.2%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Lao P.D.R.3.1%2.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia1.6%2.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lesotho1.6%2.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ท Liberia4.2%3.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡พ Libya17.9%-18.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania1.1%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg1.1%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ด Macao SAR56.7%-22.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Madagascar5.2%4.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ Malawi2.5%0.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia*4.4%5.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ป Maldives6.1%8.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Mali5.3%2.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta3.3%6.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ญ Marshall Islands3.2%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ท Mauritania4.8%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บ Mauritius5.4%6.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico*1.7%2.1%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Micronesia2.9%-0.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Moldova2.3%0.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mongolia5.0%2.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ช Montenegro2.5%7.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco3.1%08%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Mozambique4.9%3.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar3.3%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Namibia3.2%3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ท Nauru2.0%0.9%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต Nepal5.0%4.2%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands*0.6%4.5%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand1.9%2.3%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Nicaragua3.0%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ช Niger7.3%6.7%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Nigeria*3.2%3.2%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway2.6%3.6%
๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฒ Oman4.1%4.4%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan*2.0%6.0%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ผ Palau12.3%-2.8%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama4.0%7.5%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฌ Papua New Guinea5.1%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay4.3%0.2%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru2.6%2.7%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines*5.0%6.5%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland*0.3%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal0.7%6.2%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ท Puerto Rico0.4%4.8%
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar2.4%3.4%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Republic of Congo4.6%4.3%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania3.1%4.8%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia*0.3%-3.4%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผ Rwanda6.7%6.0%
๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡ธ Samoa4.0%-5.0%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino0.8%3.1%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡น Sรฃo Tomรฉ and Prรญncipe2.6%1.4%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia*2.6%7.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal8.1%4.7%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia2.7%3.5%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ Seychelles5.2%10.9%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra Leone3.3%2.4%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore2.3%3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovak Republic1.5%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia1.7%5.7%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ง Solomon Islands2.6%-4.5%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด Somalia3.1%1.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa*1.2%2.1%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South Sudan5.6%6.5%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain*1.1%4.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka-3.0%-8.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ณ St. Kitts and Nevis4.8%9.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡จ St. Lucia5.8%9.1%
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡จ St. Vincent and the Grenadines6.0%5.0%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Sudan2.6%-0.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท Suriname2.3%1.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden-0.1%2.6%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland0.8%2.2%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan2.8%3.3%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฏ Tajikistan4.0%5.5%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ Tanzania5.2%4.5%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand*3.7%2.8%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ธ The Bahamas4.1%8.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฒ The Gambia6.0%5.0%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฑ Timor-Leste4.2%3.3%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฌ Togo6.2%5.4%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ด Tonga2.9%-2.0%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡น Trinidad and Tobago3.5%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia1.6%2.2%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey*3.0%5.0%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฒ Turkmenistan2.3%1.2%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ป Tuvalu3.5%3.0%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Uganda5.9%4.4%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ UkraineN/A-35.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช United Arab Emirates4.2%5.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom*-0.6%3.6%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฒ U.S.*1.4%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay3.6%5.3%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan4.7%5.2%
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡บ Vanuatu3.1%1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช Venezuela6.5%6.0%
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam6.2%7.0%
West Bank and Gaza3.5%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช Yemen3.3%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Zambia4.0%2.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ผ Zimbabwe2.8%3.0%

*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.

The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.

Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or โ€˜Patagonia-vestโ€™ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.

Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.

Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.

China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.

A Long Way to Go

The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.

Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.

On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.

As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.

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Markets in a Minute

Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022

U.S. retirement assets have faced challenging conditions amid market headwindsโ€”but over the last decade these assets have nearly doubled.

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U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022

This infographic is available as a poster.

Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022

Today, many people are questioning the effects of high inflation on their retirement assets.

This Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments charts the state of U.S. retirement assets to show how Americans are building their retirement savings, and where these assets are being drawn from.

U.S. Retirement Assets: Where it Stands Today

As of 2022, there was over $33 trillion being held in U.S. retirement assets.

For perspective, that’s about 31% of all household financial assets in America and nearly double the amount seen a decade ago. In the table below, we show how this breaks down by retirement asset type, using data from the Investment Company Institute:

Type of Retirement Asset2022*2012200219921982
IRAs$11.7T$5.8T$2.5T$872B$67B
DC Plans$9.3T$5.2T$2.6T$1.1T$264B
State and Local Government DB Plans$5.1T$3.2T$2.1T$958B$260B
Private-Sector DB Plans$3.2T$2.7T$1.7T$1.1T$479B
Federal DB Plans$2.2T$1.3T$800B$411B$99B
Annuities$2.2T$1.7T$899B$473B$180B
Total $33.7T$19.9T$10.5T$5.0T$1.3T

*As of Q2 2022.

As seen above, individual retirement accounts (IRAs) hold the most retirement assets, at 34% of the total. Since 2012, they have doubled, jumping from $5.8 trillion to $11.7 trillion in 2022.

Today, about 37% of Americans hold an IRA.

With $9.3 trillion in assets, defined contribution (DC) plans are the second-greatest source of savings. These type of plans have the employee make contributions that are automatically deducted from their paycheck. Here, employers have the option to make contributions. Like IRAs, they have grown considerably in the last 10 years.

Defined benefit (DB) plans, meanwhile, have declined in usage, especially in the private sector. In 1982, private-sector DB plans made up almost 40% of U.S. retirement assets. In 2022, they accounted for under 10% of these assets.

Overall, retirement assets have declined in 2022 due to weak market performanceโ€”after a record year in 2021 driven by higher contributions, a strong market, and other factors.

U.S. Financial Security in 2022

With these factors at play, how are Americans feeling about their financial security, and how is this impacting their retirement outlook?

In one Ipsos survey, just 56% of Americans surveyed said they felt good about their overall level of financial security.

When it comes to their long-term outlook, chief among concerns is inflation. Over half surveyed said that it will likely have a big impact on their ability to save for retirement and meet other long-term financial goals. Rising interest rates and medical costs are other areas of concern, with about one-third saying they will have a large impact on achieving these outcomes.

Meanwhile, 59% of Americans said they feel confident they have enough savings to enjoy a comfortable retirement. Of these, Baby Boomers feel most confident at 70%, while Gen Z (48%) feels least confident.

The good news is that inflation looks to have hit its peak in the summer of 2022. Still, reaching a 2-3% target may take a longer period of time. With this in mind, looking to investment strategies that include floating-rate bonds and real estate, infrastructure, and value equities may help insulate retirement assets from market fluctations and inflation.

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