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The World Macroeconomic Risk Map in 2020

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This Markets in a Minute Chart is available as a poster.

Macroeconomic Risk by Country

This Markets in a Minute Chart is available as a poster.

The World Macroeconomic Risk Map in 2020

In times of crisis, risk is thrown under the microscope and former assumptions are reassessed.

From the political climate to the flow of international trade, the impact of COVID-19 has destabilized macroeconomic conditions in many jurisdictions globally.

The above Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments is a macroeconomic risk map of 241 countries and regions as global economies shift.

Measuring Risk

Data for the risk map comes from Euler Hermes, and it scores macroeconomic risk primarily based on the following categories: political risk, structural business environment, commercial risk, and financing risk.

The political risk category, for example, takes into account the concentration of power in a country. It also assesses the degree of independence of national institutions and social cohesion.

In total, a countryโ€™s macroeconomic risk profile is determined, representing the broad risk of non-payment of companies within a country.

Highest Macroeconomic Risk

Given the sheer weight of the current economic climate, which countries have the highest macroeconomic risk?

CountryRisk Level
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ซ AfghanistanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ AlbaniaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด AngolaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท ArgentinaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ ArmeniaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ AzerbaijanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ BangladeshHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง BarbadosHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ BelarusHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ BelizeHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ด BoliviaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia and HerzegovinaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ BurundiHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฒ CameroonHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde IslandsHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ซ Central African RepublicHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ ChadHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ ComorosHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Congo (Democratic Rep Of)High Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Congo (People's Rep Of)High Risk
CubaHigh Risk
DjiboutiHigh Risk
Equatorial GuineaHigh Risk
EritreaHigh Risk
FijiHigh Risk
GabonHigh Risk
GambiaHigh Risk
GeorgiaHigh Risk
Guinea (Rep Of)High Risk
Guinea BissauHigh Risk
HaitiHigh Risk
IranHigh Risk
IraqHigh Risk
KazakhstanHigh Risk
KyrgyzstanHigh Risk
LaosHigh Risk
LebanonHigh Risk
LiberiaHigh Risk
LibyaHigh Risk
MadagascarHigh Risk
MalawiHigh Risk
MaldivesHigh Risk
MaliHigh Risk
Marshall IslandsHigh Risk
MauritaniaHigh Risk
MoldovaHigh Risk
MongoliaHigh Risk
MontenegroHigh Risk
MozambiqueHigh Risk
Myanmar (Burma)High Risk
NauruHigh Risk
NepalHigh Risk
NicaraguaHigh Risk
NigerHigh Risk
NigeriaHigh Risk
North KoreaHigh Risk
PakistanHigh Risk
Papua New GuineaHigh Risk
SeychellesHigh Risk
Sierra LeoneHigh Risk
Solomon IslandsHigh Risk
SomaliaHigh Risk
South SudanHigh Risk
Sri LankaHigh Risk
SudanHigh Risk
SurinameHigh Risk
SyriaHigh Risk
TajikistanHigh Risk
Timor LesteHigh Risk
TogoHigh Risk
TongaHigh Risk
TurkmenistanHigh Risk
UkraineHigh Risk
UzbekistanHigh Risk
VenezuelaHigh Risk
YemenHigh Risk
ZambiaHigh Risk
ZimbabweHigh Risk

Argentinaโ€™s soaring inflation is estimated to reach 40.7% in 2020. Coupled with a poorly-timed debt restructuring, its economy is anticipated to shrink 12% over the course of the year. Yet for all its hardship, the country managed to send COVID-19 relief money to its citizens in just three days.

Meanwhile, countries including Venezuela and Bolivia are at steeper risk, compounded by their heavy reliance on commodity exports, such as oil.

Medium to Sensitive Risk

Overall, roughly 100 jurisdictions live within this mid-range risk threshold.

CountryRisk Level
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ผ ArubaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ BotswanaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท BrazilMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ BulgariaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ChinaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท CroatiaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ CyprusMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican RepublicMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป El SalvadorMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท GreeceMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡น GuatemalaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ HungaryMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ IcelandMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ IndiaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ IndonesiaMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด JordanMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ KuwaitMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ MoroccoMedium Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡บ NiueMedium Risk
ParaguayMedium Risk
PhilippinesMedium Risk
QatarMedium Risk
RomaniaMedium Risk
RwandaMedium Risk
Saudi ArabiaMedium Risk
ThailandMedium Risk
Trinidad & TobagoMedium Risk
AnguillaMedium Risk
BahamasMedium Risk
BruneiMedium Risk
ChileMedium Risk
ColombiaMedium Risk
Costa RicaMedium Risk
French PolynesiaMedium Risk
Hong KongMedium Risk
IsraelMedium Risk
LatviaMedium Risk
LithuaniaMedium Risk
MacaoMedium Risk
MalaysiaMedium Risk
MauritiusMedium Risk
MexicoMedium Risk
MontserratMedium Risk
PanamaMedium Risk
PeruMedium Risk
PolandMedium Risk
PortugalMedium Risk
Puerto RicoMedium Risk
SloveniaMedium Risk
United Arab EmiratesMedium Risk
UruguayMedium Risk
AlgeriaSensitive Risk
Antigua & BarbudaSensitive Risk
BahrainSensitive Risk
BeninSensitive Risk
BhutanSensitive Risk
Burkina FasoSensitive Risk
CambodiaSensitive Risk
Cook IslandsSensitive Risk
Cรดte d'IvoireSensitive Risk
CuracaoSensitive Risk
DominicaSensitive Risk
EcuadorSensitive Risk
EgyptSensitive Risk
EswatiniSensitive Risk
EthiopiaSensitive Risk
GhanaSensitive Risk
GrenadaSensitive Risk
GuyanaSensitive Risk
HondurasSensitive Risk
JamaicaSensitive Risk
KenyaSensitive Risk
KiribatiSensitive Risk
LesothoSensitive Risk
MicronesiaSensitive Risk
NamibiaSensitive Risk
North MacedoniaSensitive Risk
OmanSensitive Risk
PalauSensitive Risk
RussiaSensitive Risk
SamoaSensitive Risk
Sao Tome & PrincipeSensitive Risk
SenegalSensitive Risk
SerbiaSensitive Risk
South AfricaSensitive Risk
St. Kitts & NevisSensitive Risk
St. LuciaSensitive Risk
St. MaartenSensitive Risk
St. Vincent & The GrenadinesSensitive Risk
TanzaniaSensitive Risk
TunisiaSensitive Risk
TurkeySensitive Risk
TuvaluSensitive Risk
UgandaSensitive Risk
VanuatuSensitive Risk
VietnamSensitive Risk

As Russia contends with sanctions and counter-sanctions with the West, its political conditions face greater risks. Alongside this, increased involvement in the Syria crisis also factors negatively.

On the other hand, Indonesiaโ€™s strong banking system and solid fiscal policies are met with interest rates that fall around 4%. This means that its central bank has leeway to lower interest rates to help spur growth.

Lowest Macroeconomic Risk

As the dust begins to settle, which countries are positioned with the least risk?

Franceโ€™s high quality education system and diversified economy provide key strengths. Sweden, also with a highly educated population, is cushioned with solid public finances. Also, its R&D spending is among the highest globally.

Meanwhile, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have favorable factors at play.

CountryRisk Level
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ธ American SamoaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฒ BermudaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฌ British Virgin IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡พ Cayman IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Christmas IslandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡จ Cocos (Keeling) IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech RepublicLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Falkland IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ด Faroe IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฎ GibraltarLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฑ GreenlandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡บ GuamLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช IrelandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น ItalyLow Risk
๐Ÿ—พ JapanLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น MaltaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡น MayotteLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡จ New CaledoniaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ซ Norfolk IslandLow Risk
Northern Mariana IslandsLow Risk
Pitcairn IslandsLow Risk
San MarinoLow Risk
SlovakiaLow Risk
South KoreaLow Risk
SpainLow Risk
St HelenaLow Risk
St. Pierre Et MiquelonLow Risk
Svalbard & Jan MayenLow Risk
TaiwanLow Risk
TokelauLow Risk
Turks & CaicosLow Risk
US Virgin IslandsLow Risk
Wallis & FutunaLow Risk
AndorraLow Risk
AntarcticaLow Risk
AustraliaLow Risk
AustriaLow Risk
BelgiumLow Risk
BES Islands (Bonaire, St Eustatius, Saba)
Low Risk
Bouvet IslandLow Risk
British Indian Ocean TerritoryLow Risk
CanadaLow Risk
DenmarkLow Risk
EstoniaLow Risk
FinlandLow Risk
FranceLow Risk
French GuianaLow Risk
French Southern TerritoryLow Risk
GermanyLow Risk
GuadeloupeLow Risk
Heard and McDonald IslandsLow Risk
LiechtensteinLow Risk
LuxembourgLow Risk
MartiniqueLow Risk
MonacoLow Risk
NetherlandsLow Risk
New ZealandLow Risk
NorwayLow Risk
ReunionLow Risk
SingaporeLow Risk
South Georgia/Sandwich IslandsLow Risk
SwedenLow Risk
SwitzerlandLow Risk
United KingdomLow Risk
United StatesLow Risk
US Minor Outlying IslandsLow Risk
Vatican CityLow Risk

How about the U.S.? Backed by the worldโ€™s reserve currency, its strengths rest on its diverse GDP and low interest rates. However, the implications of high corporate debtโ€”climbing to $10.2 trillionโ€”weighs significantly, not to mention increasing political fragmentation.

As central banks in wealthy countries press ahead, the end of stimulus packages still seems like a distant prospect. Together, rich nations are projected to borrow a combined 17% of their GDP in this year alone. This, matched with low inflation, is helping to defend economies from collapse.

Still, it raises a key questionโ€”is this necessary for a sustainable global recovery ahead?

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Markets in a Minute

Visualizing Historical Oil Prices (1968-2022)

The real price of oil reached a seven year high amid the Russia-Ukraine war. How have other major events impacted historical oil prices?

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Historical Oil Prices (1968-2022)

Amid Russiaโ€™s invasion of Ukraine, the inflation-adjusted price of oil reached a seven-year high. Russia is one of the worldโ€™s largest producers of crude oil, and many countries have announced a ban on Russian oil imports amid the war. This has led to supply uncertainties and, therefore, rising prices.

How does the price increase compare to previous political and economic events? In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we look at historical oil prices since 1968.

The Fundamentals Behind Oil Prices

Before diving into the data, itโ€™s worth explaining why historical oil prices have seen so much volatility. This mainly stems from the fact that the supply and demand of oil tends to have a low responsiveness to price changes in the short term.

  • On the supply side, oil production capacity can be challenging to change quickly. Drilling a new oil well is a lengthy and complex process.
    • On the demand side, it can be quite difficult to change equipment that uses petroleum products. For instance, in the short term, people will keep driving their cars to work despite higher gas prices.

    For these reasons, in order to re-balance supply and demand, it takes a sufficiently large price change to occur. For example, if gas prices were to double, only then may enough commuters consider taking public transit or changing behavior in other ways.

    What kind of events can shock the system enough to drive big price changes?

    A large portion of the worldโ€™s oil is located in regions that are prone to political conflict. Political events can disrupt the actual or perceived supply of oil, and drive prices upwards. On the other hand, an economic downturn reduces energy demand and can depress prices.

    Looking Back at Historical Oil Prices

    To compare how events have influenced historical oil prices, we used data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It should be noted that the data extends to March 31, 2022, and does not reflect the recent price dips in response to Shanghai lockdowns and U.S. rate hikes.

    Here is the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil during select events.

    DateEventCrude Oil Price per Barrel
    Real 2010 Dollars
    Q1 1971U.S. spare capacity exhausted$13.47
    Q1 1973Arab Oil Embargo$15.90
    Q1 1974Embargo lifted$42.00
    Q1 1978Iranian Revolution$39.65
    Q3 1980Official start of Iran-Iraq war$76.93
    Q1 1986Saudis abandon swing producer role$32.90
    Q2 1990Trough price prior to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait$26.72
    Q3 1990Iraq invades Kuwait$39.37
    Q4 1990Peak price during invasion$47.15
    Q2 1991Iraq accepts UN resolution to end conflict$30.18
    Q4 1996Peak price prior to Asian financial crisis$31.88
    Q3 1997Asian financial crisis begins$25.35
    Q1 1999OPEC cuts production target by 1.7M b/d$16.41
    Q4 2000Peak price prior to 9/11$38.73
    Q3 20019/11 attacks$31.76
    Q4 2001Trough price after 9/11$24.22
    Q1 2005Low spare capacity$54.71
    Q2 2008Peak price before global financial collapse$125.21
    Q1 2009OPEC cuts production targets by 4.2M b/d$42.89
    Q2 2014Peak price prior to supply gut price collapse$95.07
    Q1 2015OPEC production quota unchanged despite low prices$44.41
    Q4 2019Price immediately prior to global pandemic$50.38
    Q1 2020COVID-19 declared a pandemic$40.34
    Q2 2020Trough price during global pandemic$24.65
    Q1 2022Russia invades Ukraine$77.94

    From the first quarter of 1968 until the second quarter of 1986, data reflects the reporter refiner acquisition cost. From the third quarter of 1986 to the first quarter of 2022, data reflects the West Texas Intermediate cost.

    In 1973, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced an embargo (ban) on oil exports to the United States. The move was in response to the U.S. providing military aid to Israel. By the time the embargo ended in March 1974, the inflation-adjusted price of crude oil had risen 164%. The embargo also led to a selloff in the stock market, with the recovery taking almost six years.

    Historical oil prices rose rapidly from 2004-2008. During that time, economic growth was fueling oil demand but there was little spare production capacity. By the second quarter of 2008, inflation-adjusted oil prices hit a high of $125 per barrel. They crashed by 66% shortly thereafter due to the global financial crisis.

    Most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and associated containment measures caused historical oil prices to drop by nearly 40% in three months. Oil prices have since risen 216% from their pandemic low, as of the first quarter of 2022. This is due to the economic recovery and Russiaโ€™s invasion of Ukraine.

    Oil as an Investment

    Investorsโ€™ interest in oil as an alternative investment has risen in recent years. Given the high volatility in historical oil prices, investors may want to consider their comfort with this level of risk. Of course, an investorโ€™s sustainability goals may also be a factor when choosing whether to invest in oil.

    However, oil also presents opportunities. It has had low-to-negative correlation with U.S. bonds in recent years and may help investors diversify their portfolios. Not only that, it may help investors manage rising interest rates. An economic recovery typically leads to rising interest rates, but also more energy demand. Oil prices have historically climbed during these periods.

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Markets in a Minute

Mapped: Interest Rates by Country in 2022

For the vast majority of countries, interest rates are marching upward. Hereโ€™s how they break down in 2022.

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Interest Rates

This infographic is available as a poster.

Mapped: Interest Rates by Country

Soaring inflation, the war in Ukraine, and strengthening economies are spurring interest rate increases around the world. At the same time, central banks are unwinding record monetary stimulus from COVID-19.

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we show interest rates by country in 2022. Interest rates are based on short-term benchmark policy rates set out by central banks.

Interest Rates Around the World in 2022

While the vast majority of countries saw a decline in interest rates over recent years, this trend is reversing for many in 2022.

After hovering at 0.0%, the U.S. increased its short-term interest rate to 0.5%. Experts project up to seven interest rate hikes this year, with interest rates rising as high as 1.9% by year-end.

For many countries in Europe, interest rates climbed out of negative territory for the first time since 2014. Interest rates now sit at 0.0% across the European Union.

Country/ Region
Short-Term Interest Rate (%)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Albania1.0
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Armenia9.3
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia 0.1
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan7.8
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ธ Bahamas4.0
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh4.8
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง Barbados2.0
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus12.0
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium0.0
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ Belize2.3
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ด Bolivia 3.9
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ Botswana3.8
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil11.8
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada0.5
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ Chad3.5
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile7.0
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China3.7
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia5.0
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Congo7.5
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ท Costa Rica2.5
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บ Cuba2.3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic5.0
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark-0.6
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican Republic5.5
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador7.2
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt9.3
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Fiji0.3
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland0.0
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia11.0
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡พ Guyana5.0
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong0.8
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary4.4
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland2.8
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India4.0
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia3.5
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel0.1
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Jamaica4.5
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan-0.1
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan2.8
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan13.5
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Kenya7.0
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Kyrgyzstan10.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos3.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง Lebanon7.8
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lesotho4.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡พ Libya3.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia1.8
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ป Maldives7.0
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Mali4.0
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico6.5
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mongolia9.0
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco1.5
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต Nepal7.0
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands0.0
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand1.0
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Nigeria11.5
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway0.8
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan12.3
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay6.3
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru4.5
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines2.0
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland4.5
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal0.0
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar2.5
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania3.0
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผ Rwanda5.0
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia1.3
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia1.5
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra Leone14.3
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore0.3
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovakia0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa4.3
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea1.3
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South Sudan12.0
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka13.5
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Swaziland4.0
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden0.0
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland-0.8
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan1.4
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand0.5
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia6.3
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey14.0
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Uganda6.5
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine10.0
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช United Arab Emirates1.8
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom0.8
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States0.5
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam4.0
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Zambia9.0

*Australia, China, India, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, Serbia, Romania data as of April 2022.
Reflects data for March or February 2022 depending on latest available data.
Source: Trading Economics (Apr 2022)

In Latin America, several central banks are taking a hawkish stance as oil price shocks are causing inflation to accelerate.

Mexico raised its benchmark interest rate to 6.5% in March in response to inflation hitting 20-year highs. Even before the war in Ukraine, global factors such as rising oil and import prices were already having a greater impact on Latin American countries than advanced economies.

Unlike the U.S. and most countries located in Europe and Latin America, China is anticipated to potentially lower its interest rates.

A renewed COVID-19 wave has slowed growth, with the government requiring countless factories to close in order to combat the spread of the Omicron variant. Disruptions have cascaded across supply chainsโ€”from electric vehicles to iPhonesโ€” leaving goods in shorter supply. China is responsible for roughly one-third of global manufacturing.

High-Water Mark

Which countries have the highest interest rates in 2022?

Interest Rates

At an eye-watering 80%, Zimbabwe has the highest interest rate of any country.

In early April, the central bank raised rates by 20 percentage points to combat a 73% inflation rate. Small businesses, teachers, and analysts have been urging the government to adopt the U.S. dollar to boost economic and investor confidence amid currency woes.

With an interest rate of 44.5%, Argentina has the second-highest rate. To get closer to reaching the requirements for rescheduling its $40 billion loan to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the central bank raised interest rates for the second time this year. The IMF requires having interest rates above the rate of inflation. As of February, Argentina’s inflation exceeded 50%.

Meanwhile, oil-rich countries such as Angola (20%), Iran (18%), and Russia (17%) all made it into the top 10 for highest rates globally.

Treading Water

What is the outlook for interest rates in 2022 and beyond?

In the short term, experts believe interest rates will likely rise to fight inflation. They could also play a role in slower economic growth, especially if raised too quickly. Recently, the World Bank revised global growth to 3.2% due to the war in Ukraine and rising food and energy pricesโ€”about a percentage point lower than its previous forecast of 4.1%.

The longer-term view may look different.

Structural factors, such as an aging population, will likely lead to an increase in savings rates for retirement. In theory, higher savings rates increases the total supply of funds, depressing the interest rate. By 2100, people over 50 are projected to rise from 25% to 40% of the global population.

The end of ultra-low interest rates may be over for now, but broader factors, including growing global debtโ€”which stands at 355% of the world’s GDPโ€”suggests it may be a short to medium-term adjustment.

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