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The World Macroeconomic Risk Map in 2020

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This Markets in a Minute Chart is available as a poster.

Macroeconomic Risk by Country

This Markets in a Minute Chart is available as a poster.

The World Macroeconomic Risk Map in 2020

In times of crisis, risk is thrown under the microscope and former assumptions are reassessed.

From the political climate to the flow of international trade, the impact of COVID-19 has destabilized macroeconomic conditions in many jurisdictions globally.

The above Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments is a macroeconomic risk map of 241 countries and regions as global economies shift.

Measuring Risk

Data for the risk map comes from Euler Hermes, and it scores macroeconomic risk primarily based on the following categories: political risk, structural business environment, commercial risk, and financing risk.

The political risk category, for example, takes into account the concentration of power in a country. It also assesses the degree of independence of national institutions and social cohesion.

In total, a country’s macroeconomic risk profile is determined, representing the broad risk of non-payment of companies within a country.

Highest Macroeconomic Risk

Given the sheer weight of the current economic climate, which countries have the highest macroeconomic risk?

CountryRisk Level
🇦🇫 AfghanistanHigh Risk
🇦🇱 AlbaniaHigh Risk
🇦🇴 AngolaHigh Risk
🇦🇷 ArgentinaHigh Risk
🇦🇲 ArmeniaHigh Risk
🇦🇿 AzerbaijanHigh Risk
🇧🇩 BangladeshHigh Risk
🇧🇧 BarbadosHigh Risk
🇧🇾 BelarusHigh Risk
🇧🇿 BelizeHigh Risk
🇧🇴 BoliviaHigh Risk
🇧🇦 Bosnia and HerzegovinaHigh Risk
🇧🇮 BurundiHigh Risk
🇨🇲 CameroonHigh Risk
🇨🇻 Cape Verde IslandsHigh Risk
🇨🇫 Central African RepublicHigh Risk
🇹🇩 ChadHigh Risk
🇰🇲 ComorosHigh Risk
🇨🇩 Congo (Democratic Rep Of)High Risk
🇨🇬 Congo (People's Rep Of)High Risk
CubaHigh Risk
DjiboutiHigh Risk
Equatorial GuineaHigh Risk
EritreaHigh Risk
FijiHigh Risk
GabonHigh Risk
GambiaHigh Risk
GeorgiaHigh Risk
Guinea (Rep Of)High Risk
Guinea BissauHigh Risk
HaitiHigh Risk
IranHigh Risk
IraqHigh Risk
KazakhstanHigh Risk
KyrgyzstanHigh Risk
LaosHigh Risk
LebanonHigh Risk
LiberiaHigh Risk
LibyaHigh Risk
MadagascarHigh Risk
MalawiHigh Risk
MaldivesHigh Risk
MaliHigh Risk
Marshall IslandsHigh Risk
MauritaniaHigh Risk
MoldovaHigh Risk
MongoliaHigh Risk
MontenegroHigh Risk
MozambiqueHigh Risk
Myanmar (Burma)High Risk
NauruHigh Risk
NepalHigh Risk
NicaraguaHigh Risk
NigerHigh Risk
NigeriaHigh Risk
North KoreaHigh Risk
PakistanHigh Risk
Papua New GuineaHigh Risk
SeychellesHigh Risk
Sierra LeoneHigh Risk
Solomon IslandsHigh Risk
SomaliaHigh Risk
South SudanHigh Risk
Sri LankaHigh Risk
SudanHigh Risk
SurinameHigh Risk
SyriaHigh Risk
TajikistanHigh Risk
Timor LesteHigh Risk
TogoHigh Risk
TongaHigh Risk
TurkmenistanHigh Risk
UkraineHigh Risk
UzbekistanHigh Risk
VenezuelaHigh Risk
YemenHigh Risk
ZambiaHigh Risk
ZimbabweHigh Risk

Argentina’s soaring inflation is estimated to reach 40.7% in 2020. Coupled with a poorly-timed debt restructuring, its economy is anticipated to shrink 12% over the course of the year. Yet for all its hardship, the country managed to send COVID-19 relief money to its citizens in just three days.

Meanwhile, countries including Venezuela and Bolivia are at steeper risk, compounded by their heavy reliance on commodity exports, such as oil.

Medium to Sensitive Risk

Overall, roughly 100 jurisdictions live within this mid-range risk threshold.

CountryRisk Level
🇦🇼 ArubaMedium Risk
🇧🇼 BotswanaMedium Risk
🇧🇷 BrazilMedium Risk
🇧🇬 BulgariaMedium Risk
🇨🇳 ChinaMedium Risk
🇭🇷 CroatiaMedium Risk
🇨🇾 CyprusMedium Risk
🇩🇴 Dominican RepublicMedium Risk
🇸🇻 El SalvadorMedium Risk
🇬🇷 GreeceMedium Risk
🇬🇹 GuatemalaMedium Risk
🇭🇺 HungaryMedium Risk
🇮🇸 IcelandMedium Risk
🇮🇳 IndiaMedium Risk
🇮🇩 IndonesiaMedium Risk
🇯🇴 JordanMedium Risk
🇰🇼 KuwaitMedium Risk
🇲🇦 MoroccoMedium Risk
🇳🇺 NiueMedium Risk
ParaguayMedium Risk
PhilippinesMedium Risk
QatarMedium Risk
RomaniaMedium Risk
RwandaMedium Risk
Saudi ArabiaMedium Risk
ThailandMedium Risk
Trinidad & TobagoMedium Risk
AnguillaMedium Risk
BahamasMedium Risk
BruneiMedium Risk
ChileMedium Risk
ColombiaMedium Risk
Costa RicaMedium Risk
French PolynesiaMedium Risk
Hong KongMedium Risk
IsraelMedium Risk
LatviaMedium Risk
LithuaniaMedium Risk
MacaoMedium Risk
MalaysiaMedium Risk
MauritiusMedium Risk
MexicoMedium Risk
MontserratMedium Risk
PanamaMedium Risk
PeruMedium Risk
PolandMedium Risk
PortugalMedium Risk
Puerto RicoMedium Risk
SloveniaMedium Risk
United Arab EmiratesMedium Risk
UruguayMedium Risk
AlgeriaSensitive Risk
Antigua & BarbudaSensitive Risk
BahrainSensitive Risk
BeninSensitive Risk
BhutanSensitive Risk
Burkina FasoSensitive Risk
CambodiaSensitive Risk
Cook IslandsSensitive Risk
Côte d'IvoireSensitive Risk
CuracaoSensitive Risk
DominicaSensitive Risk
EcuadorSensitive Risk
EgyptSensitive Risk
EswatiniSensitive Risk
EthiopiaSensitive Risk
GhanaSensitive Risk
GrenadaSensitive Risk
GuyanaSensitive Risk
HondurasSensitive Risk
JamaicaSensitive Risk
KenyaSensitive Risk
KiribatiSensitive Risk
LesothoSensitive Risk
MicronesiaSensitive Risk
NamibiaSensitive Risk
North MacedoniaSensitive Risk
OmanSensitive Risk
PalauSensitive Risk
RussiaSensitive Risk
SamoaSensitive Risk
Sao Tome & PrincipeSensitive Risk
SenegalSensitive Risk
SerbiaSensitive Risk
South AfricaSensitive Risk
St. Kitts & NevisSensitive Risk
St. LuciaSensitive Risk
St. MaartenSensitive Risk
St. Vincent & The GrenadinesSensitive Risk
TanzaniaSensitive Risk
TunisiaSensitive Risk
TurkeySensitive Risk
TuvaluSensitive Risk
UgandaSensitive Risk
VanuatuSensitive Risk
VietnamSensitive Risk

As Russia contends with sanctions and counter-sanctions with the West, its political conditions face greater risks. Alongside this, increased involvement in the Syria crisis also factors negatively.

On the other hand, Indonesia’s strong banking system and solid fiscal policies are met with interest rates that fall around 4%. This means that its central bank has leeway to lower interest rates to help spur growth.

Lowest Macroeconomic Risk

As the dust begins to settle, which countries are positioned with the least risk?

France’s high quality education system and diversified economy provide key strengths. Sweden, also with a highly educated population, is cushioned with solid public finances. Also, its R&D spending is among the highest globally.

Meanwhile, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have favorable factors at play.

CountryRisk Level
🇦🇸 American SamoaLow Risk
🇧🇲 BermudaLow Risk
🇻🇬 British Virgin IslandsLow Risk
🇰🇾 Cayman IslandsLow Risk
🇨🇽 Christmas IslandLow Risk
🇨🇨 Cocos (Keeling) IslandsLow Risk
🇨🇿 Czech RepublicLow Risk
🇫🇰 Falkland IslandsLow Risk
🇫🇴 Faroe IslandsLow Risk
🇬🇮 GibraltarLow Risk
🇬🇱 GreenlandLow Risk
🇬🇺 GuamLow Risk
🇮🇪 IrelandLow Risk
🇮🇹 ItalyLow Risk
🗾 JapanLow Risk
🇲🇹 MaltaLow Risk
🇾🇹 MayotteLow Risk
🇳🇨 New CaledoniaLow Risk
🇳🇫 Norfolk IslandLow Risk
Northern Mariana IslandsLow Risk
Pitcairn IslandsLow Risk
San MarinoLow Risk
SlovakiaLow Risk
South KoreaLow Risk
SpainLow Risk
St HelenaLow Risk
St. Pierre Et MiquelonLow Risk
Svalbard & Jan MayenLow Risk
TaiwanLow Risk
TokelauLow Risk
Turks & CaicosLow Risk
US Virgin IslandsLow Risk
Wallis & FutunaLow Risk
AndorraLow Risk
AntarcticaLow Risk
AustraliaLow Risk
AustriaLow Risk
BelgiumLow Risk
BES Islands (Bonaire, St Eustatius, Saba)
Low Risk
Bouvet IslandLow Risk
British Indian Ocean TerritoryLow Risk
CanadaLow Risk
DenmarkLow Risk
EstoniaLow Risk
FinlandLow Risk
FranceLow Risk
French GuianaLow Risk
French Southern TerritoryLow Risk
GermanyLow Risk
GuadeloupeLow Risk
Heard and McDonald IslandsLow Risk
LiechtensteinLow Risk
LuxembourgLow Risk
MartiniqueLow Risk
MonacoLow Risk
NetherlandsLow Risk
New ZealandLow Risk
NorwayLow Risk
ReunionLow Risk
SingaporeLow Risk
South Georgia/Sandwich IslandsLow Risk
SwedenLow Risk
SwitzerlandLow Risk
United KingdomLow Risk
United StatesLow Risk
US Minor Outlying IslandsLow Risk
Vatican CityLow Risk

How about the U.S.? Backed by the world’s reserve currency, its strengths rest on its diverse GDP and low interest rates. However, the implications of high corporate debt—climbing to $10.2 trillion—weighs significantly, not to mention increasing political fragmentation.

As central banks in wealthy countries press ahead, the end of stimulus packages still seems like a distant prospect. Together, rich nations are projected to borrow a combined 17% of their GDP in this year alone. This, matched with low inflation, is helping to defend economies from collapse.

Still, it raises a key question—is this necessary for a sustainable global recovery ahead?

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Markets in a Minute

How Small Investments Make a Big Impact Over Time

Compound interest is a powerful force in building wealth. Here’s how it impacts even the most modest portfolio over the long-term.

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This bar chart shows the power of compound interest and regular contributions over time.

How Small Investments Make a Big Impact Over Time

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Time is an investor’s biggest ally, even if they start with just a modest portfolio.

The reason behind this is compounding interest, of course, thanks to its ability to magnify returns as interest earns interest on itself. With a fortune of $159 billion, Warren Buffett largely credits compound interest as a vital ingredient to his success—describing it like a snowball collecting snow as it rolls down a very long hill.

This graphic shows how compound interest can dramatically impact the value of an investor’s portfolio over longer periods of time, based on data from Investor.gov.

Why Compound Interest is a Powerful Force

Below, we show how investing $100 each month, with a 10% annual return starting at the age of 25 can generate outsized returns by simply staying the course:

AgeTotal ContributionsInterestPortfolio Value
25$1,300$10$1,310
30$7,300$2,136$9,436
35$13,300$9,223$22,523
40$19,300$24,299$43,599
45$25,300$52,243$77,543
50$31,300$100,910$132,210
55$37,300$182,952$220,252
60$43,300$318,743$362,043
65$49,300$541,101$590,401
70$55,300$902,872$958,172
75$61,300$1,489,172$1,550,472

Portfolio value is at end of each time period. All time periods are five years except for the first year (Age 25) which includes a $100 initial contribution. Interest is computed annually.

As we can see, the portfolio grows at a relatively slow pace over the first five years.

But as the portfolio continues to grow, the interest earned begins to exceed the contributions in under 15 years. That’s because interest is earned not only on the total contributions but on the accumulated interest itself. So by the age of 40, the total contributions are valued at $19,300 while the interest earned soars to $24,299.

Not only that, the interest earned soars to double the value of the investor’s contributions over the next five years—reaching $52,243 compared to the $25,300 in principal.

By the time the investor is 75, the power of compound interest becomes even more eye-opening. While the investor’s lifetime contributions totaled $61,300, the interest earned ballooned to 25 times that value, reaching $1,489,172.

In this way, it shows that investing consistently over time can benefit investors who stick it through stock market ups and downs.

The Two Key Ingredients to Growing Money

Generally speaking, building wealth involves two key pillars: time and rate of return.

Below, we show how these key factors can impact portfolios based on varying time horizons using a hypothetical example. Importantly, just a small difference in returns can make a huge impact on a portfolio’s end value:

Annual ReturnPortfolio Value
25 Year Investment Horizon
Portfolio Value
75 Year Investment Horizon
5%$57,611$911,868
8%$88,412$4,835,188
12%$161,701$49,611,684

With this in mind, it’s important to take into account investment fees which can erode the value of your investments.

Even the difference of 1% in investment fees adds up over time, especially over the long run. Say an investor paid 1% in fees, and had an after-fee return of 9%. If they had a $100 starting investment, contributed monthly over a 25-year time span, their portfolio would be worth over $102,000 at the end of the period.

By comparison, a 10% return would have made over $119,000. In other words, they lost roughly $17,000 on their investment because of fees.

Another important factor to keep in mind is inflation. In order to preserve the value of your portfolio, its important to choose investments that beat inflation, which has historically averaged around 3.3%.

For perspective, since 1974 the S&P 500 has returned 12.5% on average annually (including reinvested dividends), 10-Year U.S. Treasury bonds have returned 6.6%, while real estate has averaged 5.6%. As we can see, each of these have outperformed inflation over longer horizons, with varying degrees of risk and return.

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Markets in a Minute

What Were the Top Performing Investment Themes of 2023?

In 2023, several investment themes outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. Here are the top performers—from blockchain to AI.

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The Top Performing Investment Themes in 2023

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

While the S&P 500 rebounded over 24% in 2023, many investment themes soared even higher.

In many ways, the year was defined by breakthrough announcements in AI and the resurgence of Bitcoin. At the same time, investors looked to nuclear energy ETFs thanks to nuclear’s growing role as a low carbon energy source and the war in Ukraine.

This graphic shows the best performing investment themes last year, based on data from Trackinsight.

Blockchain ETFs Lead the Pack

With 82% returns, blockchain ETFs outperformed all other themes in the U.S. due to the sharp rise in the bitcoin price over the year.

These ETFs hold mainly bitcoin mining firms, since ETFs investing directly in bitcoin were not yet approved by regulators in 2023. However, as of January 2024, U.S. regulators have approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs for trading, which drew in $10 billion in assets in their first 20 days alone.

Below, we show the top performing themes across U.S. ETFs in 2023:

Theme2023 Performance
Blockchain82%
Next Generation Internet80%
Metaverse59%
FinTech54%
Nuclear Energy50%
Cloud Computing49%
AI/Big Data49%
Gig Economy48%
Digital Infrastructure & Connectivity43%

As we can see, next generation internet ETFs—which include companies focused on the internet of things and new payment methods—also boomed.

Meanwhile, nuclear energy ETFs had a banner year as uranium prices hit 15-year highs. Investor optimism for nuclear power is part of a wider trend of reactivating nuclear power plants globally in the push towards decarbonizing the energy supply. In fact, 63 new reactors across countries including Japan, Türkiye, and China are planned for construction amid higher global demand.

With 49% returns, AI and big data ETFs were another top performing investment theme. Driving these returns were companies like chipmaker Nvidia, whose share price jumped by 239% in 2023 thanks to its technology being fundamental to powering AI models.

Top Investment Themes, by Net Flows

Here are the the investment themes that saw the highest net flows over the year:

Theme2023 Net Flows
Robotics & Automation$1,303M
Nuclear Energy$997M
AI/Big Data$987M
Global Infrastructure$734M
Net Zero 2050$716M
Blockchain$357M
Cannabis & Psychedelics$270M
Emerging Markets Consumer Growth$203M

Overall, ETFs focused on robotics and automation saw the greatest net flows amid wider deployment of these technologies across factories, healthcare, and transportation actvities.

The success of AI large language models over the year is another key factor in powering robotics capabilities. For instance, Microsoft is planning to build a robot powered by ChatGPT that provides it with higher context awareness of certain tasks.

Like robotics and automation, AI and big data, along with blockchain ETFs attracted high inflows.

Interestingly, ETFs surrounding emerging markets consumer growth saw strong inflows thanks to an expanding middle class across countries like India and China spurring potential growth opportunities. In 2024, 113 million people are projected to join the global middle class, seen mainly across countries in Asia.

Will Current Trends Continue in 2024?

So far, many of these investment themes have continued to see positive momentum including blockchain and next generation internet ETFs.

In many cases, these investment themes cover broad, underlying trends that have the potential to reshape sectors and industries. Going further, select investment themes have often defined each decade thanks to factors like technological disruption, geopolitics, and the economic environment.

While several factors could impact their performance—such as a global downturn or a second wave of inflation—it remains to be seen if investor demand will carry through the year and beyond.

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