Connect with us

Markets in a Minute

Mapped: Interest Rates by Country in 2022

Published

on

This infographic is available as a poster.

Interest Rates

Interest Rates

This infographic is available as a poster.

Mapped: Interest Rates by Country

Soaring inflation, the war in Ukraine, and strengthening economies are spurring interest rate increases around the world. At the same time, central banks are unwinding record monetary stimulus from COVID-19.

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we show interest rates by country in 2022. Interest rates are based on short-term benchmark policy rates set out by central banks.

Interest Rates Around the World in 2022

While the vast majority of countries saw a decline in interest rates over recent years, this trend is reversing for many in 2022.

After hovering at 0.0%, the U.S. increased its short-term interest rate to 0.5%. Experts project up to seven interest rate hikes this year, with interest rates rising as high as 1.9% by year-end.

For many countries in Europe, interest rates climbed out of negative territory for the first time since 2014. Interest rates now sit at 0.0% across the European Union.

Country/ Region
Short-Term Interest Rate (%)
🇦🇱 Albania1.0
🇦🇲 Armenia9.3
🇦🇺 Australia 0.1
🇦🇹 Austria0.0
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan7.8
🇧🇸 Bahamas4.0
🇧🇩 Bangladesh4.8
🇧🇧 Barbados2.0
🇧🇾 Belarus12.0
🇧🇪 Belgium0.0
🇧🇿 Belize2.3
🇧🇴 Bolivia 3.9
🇧🇼 Botswana3.8
🇧🇷 Brazil11.8
🇨🇦 Canada0.5
🇹🇩 Chad3.5
🇨🇱 Chile7.0
🇨🇳 China3.7
🇨🇴 Colombia5.0
🇨🇬 Congo7.5
🇨🇷 Costa Rica2.5
🇨🇺 Cuba2.3
🇨🇿 Czech Republic5.0
🇩🇰 Denmark-0.6
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic5.5
🇪🇨 Ecuador7.2
🇪🇬 Egypt9.3
🇫🇯 Fiji0.3
🇫🇮 Finland0.0
🇫🇷 France0.0
🇬🇪 Georgia11.0
🇩🇪 Germany0.0
🇬🇷 Greece0.0
🇬🇾 Guyana5.0
🇭🇰 Hong Kong0.8
🇭🇺 Hungary4.4
🇮🇸 Iceland2.8
🇮🇳 India4.0
🇮🇩 Indonesia3.5
🇮🇪 Ireland0.0
🇮🇱 Israel0.1
🇮🇹 Italy0.0
🇯🇲 Jamaica4.5
🇯🇵 Japan-0.1
🇯🇴 Jordan2.8
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan13.5
🇰🇪 Kenya7.0
🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan10.0
🇱🇦 Laos3.0
🇱🇻 Latvia0.0
🇱🇧 Lebanon7.8
🇱🇸 Lesotho4.0
🇱🇾 Libya3.0
🇱🇹 Lithuania0.0
🇱🇺 Luxembourg0.0
🇲🇾 Malaysia1.8
🇲🇻 Maldives7.0
🇲🇱 Mali4.0
🇲🇽 Mexico6.5
🇲🇳 Mongolia9.0
🇲🇦 Morocco1.5
🇳🇵 Nepal7.0
🇳🇱 Netherlands0.0
🇳🇿 New Zealand1.0
🇳🇬 Nigeria11.5
🇳🇴 Norway0.8
🇵🇰 Pakistan12.3
🇵🇾 Paraguay6.3
🇵🇪 Peru4.5
🇵🇭 Philippines2.0
🇵🇱 Poland4.5
🇵🇹 Portugal0.0
🇶🇦 Qatar2.5
🇷🇴 Romania3.0
🇷🇼 Rwanda5.0
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia1.3
🇷🇸 Serbia1.5
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone14.3
🇸🇬 Singapore0.3
🇸🇰 Slovakia0.0
🇿🇦 South Africa4.3
🇰🇷 South Korea1.3
🇸🇸 South Sudan12.0
🇪🇸 Spain0.0
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka13.5
🇸🇿 Swaziland4.0
🇸🇪 Sweden0.0
🇨🇭 Switzerland-0.8
🇹🇼 Taiwan1.4
🇹🇭 Thailand0.5
🇹🇳 Tunisia6.3
🇹🇷 Turkey14.0
🇺🇬 Uganda6.5
🇺🇦 Ukraine10.0
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates1.8
🇬🇧 United Kingdom0.8
🇺🇸 United States0.5
🇻🇳 Vietnam4.0
🇿🇲 Zambia9.0

*Australia, China, India, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, Serbia, Romania data as of April 2022.
Reflects data for March or February 2022 depending on latest available data.
Source: Trading Economics (Apr 2022)

In Latin America, several central banks are taking a hawkish stance as oil price shocks are causing inflation to accelerate.

Mexico raised its benchmark interest rate to 6.5% in March in response to inflation hitting 20-year highs. Even before the war in Ukraine, global factors such as rising oil and import prices were already having a greater impact on Latin American countries than advanced economies.

Unlike the U.S. and most countries located in Europe and Latin America, China is anticipated to potentially lower its interest rates.

A renewed COVID-19 wave has slowed growth, with the government requiring countless factories to close in order to combat the spread of the Omicron variant. Disruptions have cascaded across supply chains—from electric vehicles to iPhones— leaving goods in shorter supply. China is responsible for roughly one-third of global manufacturing.

High-Water Mark

Which countries have the highest interest rates in 2022?

Interest Rates

At an eye-watering 80%, Zimbabwe has the highest interest rate of any country.

In early April, the central bank raised rates by 20 percentage points to combat a 73% inflation rate. Small businesses, teachers, and analysts have been urging the government to adopt the U.S. dollar to boost economic and investor confidence amid currency woes.

With an interest rate of 44.5%, Argentina has the second-highest rate. To get closer to reaching the requirements for rescheduling its $40 billion loan to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the central bank raised interest rates for the second time this year. The IMF requires having interest rates above the rate of inflation. As of February, Argentina’s inflation exceeded 50%.

Meanwhile, oil-rich countries such as Angola (20%), Iran (18%), and Russia (17%) all made it into the top 10 for highest rates globally.

Treading Water

What is the outlook for interest rates in 2022 and beyond?

In the short term, experts believe interest rates will likely rise to fight inflation. They could also play a role in slower economic growth, especially if raised too quickly. Recently, the World Bank revised global growth to 3.2% due to the war in Ukraine and rising food and energy prices—about a percentage point lower than its previous forecast of 4.1%.

The longer-term view may look different.

Structural factors, such as an aging population, will likely lead to an increase in savings rates for retirement. In theory, higher savings rates increases the total supply of funds, depressing the interest rate. By 2100, people over 50 are projected to rise from 25% to 40% of the global population.

The end of ultra-low interest rates may be over for now, but broader factors, including growing global debt—which stands at 355% of the world’s GDP—suggests it may be a short to medium-term adjustment.

Advisor channel footer

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading
Comments

Markets in a Minute

Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023

The global economy faces an uncertain future in 2023. This year, GDP growth is projected to be 2.9%—down from 3.2% in 2022.

Published

on

GDP Growth

Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.

High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.

For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.

The map shows GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.

2023 GDP Growth Outlook

The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.

This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to China’s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.

With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwinds—and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.

Country / Region2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected)2022 Real GDP % Change (Projected)
🇦🇱 Albania2.5%4.0%
🇩🇿 Algeria2.6%4.7%
🇦🇴 Angola3.4%2.9%
🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda5.6%6.0%
🇦🇷 Argentina*2.0%4.0%
🇦🇲 Armenia3.5%7.0%
🇦🇼 Aruba2.0%4.0%
🇦🇺 Australia*1.6%3.8%
🇦🇹 Austria1.0%4.7%
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan2.5%3.7%
🇧🇭 Bahrain3.0%3.4%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh6.0%7.2%
🇧🇧 Barbados5.0%10.5%
🇧🇾 Belarus0.2%-7.0%
🇧🇪 Belgium0.4%2.4%
🇧🇿 Belize2.0%3.5%
🇧🇯 Benin6.2%5.7%
🇧🇹 Bhutan4.3%4.0%
🇧🇴 Bolivia3.2%3.8%
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina2.0%2.4%
🇧🇼 Botswana4.0%4.1%
🇧🇷 Brazil*1.2%2.8%
🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam3.3%1.2%
🇧🇬 Bulgaria3.0%2.9%
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso4.8%3.6%
🇧🇮 Burundi4.1%3.3%
🇨🇻 Cabo Verde4.8%4.0%
🇨🇲 Cameroon4.6%3.8%
🇰🇭 Cambodia6.2%5.1%
🇨🇦 Canada*1.5%3.3%
🇨🇫 Central African Republic3.0%1.5%
🇹🇩 Chad3.4%3.3%
🇨🇱 Chile-1.0%2.0%
🇨🇳 China*5.3%3.2%
🇨🇴 Colombia2.2%7.6%
🇰🇲 Comoros3.4%3.0%
🇨🇷 Costa Rica2.9%3.8%
🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire6.5%5.5%
🇭🇷 Croatia3.5%5.9%
🇨🇾 Cyprus2.5%3.5%
🇨🇿 Czech Republic1.5%1.9%
🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo6.7%6.1%
🇩🇰 Denmark0.6%2.6%
🇩🇯 Djibouti5.0%3.6%
🇩🇲 Dominica4.9%6.0%
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic4.5%5.3%
🇪🇨 Ecuador2.7%2.9%
🇪🇬 Egypt*4.0%6.6%
🇸🇻 El Salvador1.7%2.6%
🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea-3.1%5.8%
🇪🇷 Eritrea2.9%2.6%
🇪🇪 Estonia1.8%1.0%
🇸🇿 Eswatini1.8%2.4%
🇪🇹 Ethiopia5.3%3.8%
🇫🇯 Fiji6.9%12.5%
🇫🇮 Finland0.5%2.1%
🇫🇷 France*0.7%2.5%
🇲🇰 North Macedonia3.0%
🇬🇦 Gabon3.7%2.7%
🇬🇪 Georgia4.0%9.0%
🇩🇪 Germany*0.1%1.5%
🇬🇭 Ghana2.8%3.6%
🇬🇷 Greece1.8%5.2%
🇬🇩 Grenada3.6%3.6%
🇬🇹 Guatemala3.2%3.4%
🇬🇳 Guinea5.1%4.6%
🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau4.5%3.8%
🇬🇾 Guyana25.2%57.8%
🇭🇹 Haiti0.5%-1.2%
🇭🇳 Honduras3.5%3.4%
🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR3.9%-0.8%
🇭🇺 Hungary1.8%5.7%
🇮🇸 Iceland2.9%5.1%
🇮🇳 India*6.1%6.8%
🇮🇩 Indonesia*4.8%5.3%
🇮🇶 Iraq4.0%9.3%
🇮🇪 Ireland4.0%9.0%
🇮🇷 Iran*2.0%3.0%
🇮🇱 Israel3.0%6.1%
🇮🇹 Italy*0.6%3.2%
🇯🇲 Jamaica3.0%2.8%
🇯🇵 Japan*1.8%1.7%
🇯🇴 Jordan2.7%2.4%
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan*4.3%2.5%
🇰🇪 Kenya5.1%5.3%
🇰🇮 Kiribati2.4%1.0%
🇰🇷 South Korea*1.7%2.6%
🇽🇰 Kosovo3.5%2.7%
🇰🇼 Kuwait2.6%8.7%
🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic3.2%3.8%
🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R.3.1%2.2%
🇱🇻 Latvia1.6%2.5%
🇱🇸 Lesotho1.6%2.1%
🇱🇷 Liberia4.2%3.7%
🇱🇾 Libya17.9%-18.4%
🇱🇹 Lithuania1.1%1.8%
🇱🇺 Luxembourg1.1%1.6%
🇲🇴 Macao SAR56.7%-22.4%
🇲🇬 Madagascar5.2%4.2%
🇲🇼 Malawi2.5%0.9%
🇲🇾 Malaysia*4.4%5.4%
🇲🇻 Maldives6.1%8.7%
🇲🇱 Mali5.3%2.5%
🇲🇹 Malta3.3%6.2%
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands3.2%1.5%
🇲🇷 Mauritania4.8%4.0%
🇲🇺 Mauritius5.4%6.1%
🇲🇽 Mexico*1.7%2.1%
🇫🇲 Micronesia2.9%-0.6%
🇲🇩 Moldova2.3%0.0%
🇲🇳 Mongolia5.0%2.5%
🇲🇪 Montenegro2.5%7.2%
🇲🇦 Morocco3.1%08%
🇲🇿 Mozambique4.9%3.7%
🇲🇲 Myanmar3.3%2.0%
🇳🇦 Namibia3.2%3.0%
🇳🇷 Nauru2.0%0.9%
🇳🇵 Nepal5.0%4.2%
🇳🇱 Netherlands*0.6%4.5%
🇳🇿 New Zealand1.9%2.3%
🇳🇮 Nicaragua3.0%4.0%
🇳🇪 Niger7.3%6.7%
🇳🇬 Nigeria*3.2%3.2%
🇳🇴 Norway2.6%3.6%
🇴🇲 Oman4.1%4.4%
🇵🇰 Pakistan*2.0%6.0%
🇵🇼 Palau12.3%-2.8%
🇵🇦 Panama4.0%7.5%
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea5.1%3.8%
🇵🇾 Paraguay4.3%0.2%
🇵🇪 Peru2.6%2.7%
🇵🇭 Philippines*5.0%6.5%
🇵🇱 Poland*0.3%3.8%
🇵🇹 Portugal0.7%6.2%
🇵🇷 Puerto Rico0.4%4.8%
🇶🇦 Qatar2.4%3.4%
🇨🇬 Republic of Congo4.6%4.3%
🇷🇴 Romania3.1%4.8%
🇷🇺 Russia*0.3%-3.4%
🇷🇼 Rwanda6.7%6.0%
🇼🇸 Samoa4.0%-5.0%
🇸🇲 San Marino0.8%3.1%
🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe2.6%1.4%
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia*2.6%7.6%
🇸🇳 Senegal8.1%4.7%
🇷🇸 Serbia2.7%3.5%
🇸🇨 Seychelles5.2%10.9%
🇸🇱 Sierra Leone3.3%2.4%
🇸🇬 Singapore2.3%3.0%
🇸🇰 Slovak Republic1.5%1.8%
🇸🇮 Slovenia1.7%5.7%
🇸🇧 Solomon Islands2.6%-4.5%
🇸🇴 Somalia3.1%1.9%
🇿🇦 South Africa*1.2%2.1%
🇸🇸 South Sudan5.6%6.5%
🇪🇸 Spain*1.1%4.3%
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka-3.0%-8.7%
🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis4.8%9.8%
🇱🇨 St. Lucia5.8%9.1%
🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines6.0%5.0%
🇸🇩 Sudan2.6%-0.3%
🇸🇷 Suriname2.3%1.3%
🇸🇪 Sweden-0.1%2.6%
🇨🇭 Switzerland0.8%2.2%
🇹🇼 Taiwan2.8%3.3%
🇹🇯 Tajikistan4.0%5.5%
🇹🇿 Tanzania5.2%4.5%
🇹🇭 Thailand*3.7%2.8%
🇧🇸 The Bahamas4.1%8.0%
🇬🇲 The Gambia6.0%5.0%
🇹🇱 Timor-Leste4.2%3.3%
🇹🇬 Togo6.2%5.4%
🇹🇴 Tonga2.9%-2.0%
🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago3.5%4.0%
🇹🇳 Tunisia1.6%2.2%
🇹🇷 Turkey*3.0%5.0%
🇹🇲 Turkmenistan2.3%1.2%
🇹🇻 Tuvalu3.5%3.0%
🇺🇬 Uganda5.9%4.4%
🇺🇦 UkraineN/A-35.0%
🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates4.2%5.1%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom*-0.6%3.6%
🇺🇲 U.S.*1.4%1.6%
🇺🇾 Uruguay3.6%5.3%
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan4.7%5.2%
🇻🇺 Vanuatu3.1%1.7%
🇻🇪 Venezuela6.5%6.0%
🇻🇳 Vietnam6.2%7.0%
West Bank and Gaza3.5%4.0%
🇾🇪 Yemen3.3%2.0%
🇿🇲 Zambia4.0%2.9%
🇿🇼 Zimbabwe2.8%3.0%

*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.

The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.

Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or ‘Patagonia-vest’ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.

Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.

Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.

China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.

A Long Way to Go

The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.

Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.

On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.

As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.

Advisor channel footer

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading

Markets in a Minute

Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022

U.S. retirement assets have faced challenging conditions amid market headwinds—but over the last decade these assets have nearly doubled.

Published

on

U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022

This infographic is available as a poster.

Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022

Today, many people are questioning the effects of high inflation on their retirement assets.

This Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments charts the state of U.S. retirement assets to show how Americans are building their retirement savings, and where these assets are being drawn from.

U.S. Retirement Assets: Where it Stands Today

As of 2022, there was over $33 trillion being held in U.S. retirement assets.

For perspective, that’s about 31% of all household financial assets in America and nearly double the amount seen a decade ago. In the table below, we show how this breaks down by retirement asset type, using data from the Investment Company Institute:

Type of Retirement Asset2022*2012200219921982
IRAs$11.7T$5.8T$2.5T$872B$67B
DC Plans$9.3T$5.2T$2.6T$1.1T$264B
State and Local Government DB Plans$5.1T$3.2T$2.1T$958B$260B
Private-Sector DB Plans$3.2T$2.7T$1.7T$1.1T$479B
Federal DB Plans$2.2T$1.3T$800B$411B$99B
Annuities$2.2T$1.7T$899B$473B$180B
Total $33.7T$19.9T$10.5T$5.0T$1.3T

*As of Q2 2022.

As seen above, individual retirement accounts (IRAs) hold the most retirement assets, at 34% of the total. Since 2012, they have doubled, jumping from $5.8 trillion to $11.7 trillion in 2022.

Today, about 37% of Americans hold an IRA.

With $9.3 trillion in assets, defined contribution (DC) plans are the second-greatest source of savings. These type of plans have the employee make contributions that are automatically deducted from their paycheck. Here, employers have the option to make contributions. Like IRAs, they have grown considerably in the last 10 years.

Defined benefit (DB) plans, meanwhile, have declined in usage, especially in the private sector. In 1982, private-sector DB plans made up almost 40% of U.S. retirement assets. In 2022, they accounted for under 10% of these assets.

Overall, retirement assets have declined in 2022 due to weak market performance—after a record year in 2021 driven by higher contributions, a strong market, and other factors.

U.S. Financial Security in 2022

With these factors at play, how are Americans feeling about their financial security, and how is this impacting their retirement outlook?

In one Ipsos survey, just 56% of Americans surveyed said they felt good about their overall level of financial security.

When it comes to their long-term outlook, chief among concerns is inflation. Over half surveyed said that it will likely have a big impact on their ability to save for retirement and meet other long-term financial goals. Rising interest rates and medical costs are other areas of concern, with about one-third saying they will have a large impact on achieving these outcomes.

Meanwhile, 59% of Americans said they feel confident they have enough savings to enjoy a comfortable retirement. Of these, Baby Boomers feel most confident at 70%, while Gen Z (48%) feels least confident.

The good news is that inflation looks to have hit its peak in the summer of 2022. Still, reaching a 2-3% target may take a longer period of time. With this in mind, looking to investment strategies that include floating-rate bonds and real estate, infrastructure, and value equities may help insulate retirement assets from market fluctations and inflation.

Advisor channel footer

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading
2023 Global Forecast by Visual Capitalist

Subscribe

Are you a financial advisor?

Subscribe here to get every update, including when new charts or infographics go live:

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Popular