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Mapped: Inflation Forecasts by Country in 2022

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This infographic is available as a poster.

Inflation by Country in 2022

Inflation by Country

This infographic is available as a poster.

Mapped: Inflation Forecasts by Country in 2022

What will inflation look like in 2022?

Today, this is a question on many investors’ minds. Across several countries, inflation has hit its highest level in decades. Supply shortages and massive monetary stimulus have contributed to increasing consumer prices. Asset prices, including houses, have also risen significantly.

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments we show inflation by country in 2022 according to IMF projections.

Inflation by Country in 2022

Inflation rates are based on the annual percentage change in average consumer prices. This measures the average level of prices in a country based on a basket of goods and services over a given time period.

Here are forecasted inflation rates for the largest economies worldwide, and how they compare to pre-pandemic levels:

Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices (Annual % Change)20192022
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States1.5%3.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China2.9%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan0.5%0.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany1.4%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom1.8%2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India4.8%4.9%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France1.3%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy0.6%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada1.9%2.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea0.4%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia4.5%4.8%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil3.7%5.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia1.6%2.1%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain0.7%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico3.6%3.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia2.8%2.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran34.6%27.5%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands2.7%1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia-2.1%2.2%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland0.4%0.6%

With the highest rate across advanced economies, the U.S. could see inflation at 3.5% in 2022. Over the last two years, the U.S. central bank has doubled the assets on its balance sheet, which stand at roughly 27% of GDP.

Inflation rates tell a different story in China. Rates are forecasted to fall below pre-pandemic levels, reaching 1.8%. In fact, across East Asia, prices have been largely immune to inflationary pressures, but this could change in 2022.

While inflation is rising in Europe, itโ€™s at roughly half the rate as the U.S., with Germany, France, and Italy projected to see inflation rates below 2%. However, the UK is an outlier, with inflation set to reach 2.6%.

What Are the Effects of Inflation?

What is driving inflation around advanced economies?

In the U.S., energy prices rose over 29% between 2020 and 2021. Meanwhile, food costs have increased 6.5%, driven by labor shortages, domestic demand, rising cost of feed and other inputs.

Looking forward, Kraft Heinz, General Mills, Starbucks and several other corporations have announced price hikes in 2022.

Consumer Price Inflation (Annual % Change 2020-2021)EnergyFood All Items
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States29.3%6.5%7.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan16.4%2.6%0.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany18.3%5.9%5.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom24.5%4.2%4.8%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France 19.6%1.4%2.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy29.4%2.9%3.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada21.2%5.7%4.8%

Source: Refinitiv, OECD

In Japan, businesses are taking a different approach. Instead of input costs passing on to consumers, companies are absorbing the costs to avoid the risk of losing business. For instance, when Kikkoman announced 4-10% increases in 2021, it made national news.

This has been a typical practice for decades amid low growth, stagnant wages, and a deflationary environment.

Highest Inflation by Country in 2022

Venezuela is the highest in the world, with a forecasted 2,000% rise in inflation.

Since October, the central bank has been printing as many as $100 million bolรญvars per week to help stabilize the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. Hyperinflation has run rampant since 2017, with U.S oil sanctions adding significant challenges to the economy.

These bans on Venezuelan exports have caused damaging economic impacts and instability.

Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices (Annual % Change)20192022
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช Venezuela19,906%2,000%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Sudan51.0%41.8%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท Suriname4.4%31.7%
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช Yemen12.0%31.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ผ Zimbabwe255.3%30.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran34.6%27.5%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South Sudan51.2%24.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Zambia9.2%19.2%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti17.3%15.5%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey15.2%15.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด Angola17.1%14.9%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Nigeria11.4%13.3%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra Leone14.8%13.3%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฒ Turkmenistan5.1%13.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ท Liberia27.0%11.8%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan14.5%10.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ณ Guinea9.5%9.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ Malawi9.4%9.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana7.1%8.8%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan6.7%8.5%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus5.6%8.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡พ Libya0.2%8.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Kyrgyz Republic1.1%7.8%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡น Sรฃo Tomรฉ and Prรญncipe7.7%7.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria2.0%7.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mongolia7.3%7.3%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine7.9%7.1%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡น Bhutan2.8%6.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บ Mauritius0.5%6.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan5.2%6.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar8.6%6.5%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฏ Tajikistan7.8%6.5%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia6.7%6.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ DRC4.7%6.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Madagascar5.6%6.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Mozambique2.8%6.4%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt13.9%6.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Gambia7.1%6.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Jamaica3.9%6.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka4.3%6.2%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay7.9%6.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Armenia1.4%5.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Moldova4.3%5.8%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh5.5%5.7%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต Nepal4.6%5.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia4.9%5.4%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil3.7%5.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lesotho5.2%5.3%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ Botswana2.7%5.0%
World3.5%3.8%

Like Venezuela, Iran faces high inflation, compounded by 960 U.S. sanctions. In addition, the country has been cut off from the international banking messaging system, SWIFT, to increase pressure on nuclear negotiations.

What this means is that Iranian banks canโ€™t pay for exports or receive payment for imports.

Lowest Inflation by Country in 2022

On the other hand, Saint Kitts and Nevis is the only country projected to have negative inflation in 2022, at -0.5%. Not only that, disinflation is projected to increase from pre-pandemics levels.

Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices (Annual % Change)20192022
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ณ Saint Kitts and Nevis-0.3%-0.5%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡น Trinidad and Tobago1.0%0.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece0.5%0.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan0.5%0.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Grenada0.6%0.6%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland0.4%0.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino1.0%0.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Cyprus0.6%1.0%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ผ Palau0.6%1.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Comoros3.7%1.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco0.2%1.2%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal0.3%1.3%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand0.7%1.3%
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg1.7%1.4%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Andorra0.7%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ณ Brunei Darussalam-0.4%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ท Costa Rica2.1%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany1.4%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ช Montenegro0.4%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore0.6%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan 0.5%1.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cabo Verde1.1%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark0.7%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland1.1%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France1.3%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea0.4%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ญ Marshall Islands-0.5%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain0.7%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden1.7%1.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ผ Aruba3.9%1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Fiji1.8%1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands2.7%1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia and Herzegovina0.6%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China2.9%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel0.8%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy0.6%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta1.5%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia1.6%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria2.5%1.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland0.9%1.9%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ท Puerto Rico0.1%1.9%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Antigua and Barbuda1.4%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฏ Benin-0.9%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Cameroon2.5%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia0.8%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Djibouti3.3%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Dominica1.5%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Gabon2.0%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ผ Guinea-Bissau0.3%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway2.2%2.0%

Greece, Japan, and Switzerland all are forecasted to see inflation fall below 1%. Suppressed demand and low national economic output are factors behind low inflation rates in Greece, which has led to downward pressures on inflation.

The Future of Inflation Worldwide

A combination of factors unique to COVID-19 have pushed inflation to multi-decade highs. But will inflation eventually fade over time?

For many countries, the IMF forecasts that it will. By 2025, U.S. inflation is projected to reach 2.5%, while many advanced countries could see rates at or below the 2% target often set by central banks.

Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices (Annual % Change)20222025E
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States3.5%2.5%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China1.8%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan0.5%1.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany1.5%1.8%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom2.6%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India4.9%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France1.6%1.2%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy1.8%1.3%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada2.6%2.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea1.6%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia4.8%4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil5.3%3.1%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia2.1%2.4%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain1.6%1.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico3.8%3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia2.8%3.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran27.5%25.0%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands1.7%1.9%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia2.2%2.0%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland0.6%1.0%

Structural forces that began to take hold in the 1980s have led to declining inflation rates for many years. These forces are not likely going away. Globalization is unlikely to stop and slowing energy demand may cause energy prices to level off.

In addition, as vaccination rates increase and more people enter the workforce, spending could move towards services, lessening the price pressures on goods. Central banks around the world have already started tightening monetary policy and stimulus measures, such as tapering bond purchases, which could help lower inflation.

As countries brace for higher inflation in the short-term, the long-term view may return to pre-pandemic trends.

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Markets in a Minute

Visualizing Historical Oil Prices (1968-2022)

The real price of oil reached a seven year high amid the Russia-Ukraine war. How have other major events impacted historical oil prices?

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This infographic is available as a poster.

Historical Oil Prices (1968-2022)

Amid Russiaโ€™s invasion of Ukraine, the inflation-adjusted price of oil reached a seven-year high. Russia is one of the worldโ€™s largest producers of crude oil, and many countries have announced a ban on Russian oil imports amid the war. This has led to supply uncertainties and, therefore, rising prices.

How does the price increase compare to previous political and economic events? In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we look at historical oil prices since 1968.

The Fundamentals Behind Oil Prices

Before diving into the data, itโ€™s worth explaining why historical oil prices have seen so much volatility. This mainly stems from the fact that the supply and demand of oil tends to have a low responsiveness to price changes in the short term.

  • On the supply side, oil production capacity can be challenging to change quickly. Drilling a new oil well is a lengthy and complex process.
    • On the demand side, it can be quite difficult to change equipment that uses petroleum products. For instance, in the short term, people will keep driving their cars to work despite higher gas prices.

    For these reasons, in order to re-balance supply and demand, it takes a sufficiently large price change to occur. For example, if gas prices were to double, only then may enough commuters consider taking public transit or changing behavior in other ways.

    What kind of events can shock the system enough to drive big price changes?

    A large portion of the worldโ€™s oil is located in regions that are prone to political conflict. Political events can disrupt the actual or perceived supply of oil, and drive prices upwards. On the other hand, an economic downturn reduces energy demand and can depress prices.

    Looking Back at Historical Oil Prices

    To compare how events have influenced historical oil prices, we used data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It should be noted that the data extends to March 31, 2022, and does not reflect the recent price dips in response to Shanghai lockdowns and U.S. rate hikes.

    Here is the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil during select events.

    DateEventCrude Oil Price per Barrel
    Real 2010 Dollars
    Q1 1971U.S. spare capacity exhausted$13.47
    Q1 1973Arab Oil Embargo$15.90
    Q1 1974Embargo lifted$42.00
    Q1 1978Iranian Revolution$39.65
    Q3 1980Official start of Iran-Iraq war$76.93
    Q1 1986Saudis abandon swing producer role$32.90
    Q2 1990Trough price prior to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait$26.72
    Q3 1990Iraq invades Kuwait$39.37
    Q4 1990Peak price during invasion$47.15
    Q2 1991Iraq accepts UN resolution to end conflict$30.18
    Q4 1996Peak price prior to Asian financial crisis$31.88
    Q3 1997Asian financial crisis begins$25.35
    Q1 1999OPEC cuts production target by 1.7M b/d$16.41
    Q4 2000Peak price prior to 9/11$38.73
    Q3 20019/11 attacks$31.76
    Q4 2001Trough price after 9/11$24.22
    Q1 2005Low spare capacity$54.71
    Q2 2008Peak price before global financial collapse$125.21
    Q1 2009OPEC cuts production targets by 4.2M b/d$42.89
    Q2 2014Peak price prior to supply gut price collapse$95.07
    Q1 2015OPEC production quota unchanged despite low prices$44.41
    Q4 2019Price immediately prior to global pandemic$50.38
    Q1 2020COVID-19 declared a pandemic$40.34
    Q2 2020Trough price during global pandemic$24.65
    Q1 2022Russia invades Ukraine$77.94

    From the first quarter of 1968 until the second quarter of 1986, data reflects the reporter refiner acquisition cost. From the third quarter of 1986 to the first quarter of 2022, data reflects the West Texas Intermediate cost.

    In 1973, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced an embargo (ban) on oil exports to the United States. The move was in response to the U.S. providing military aid to Israel. By the time the embargo ended in March 1974, the inflation-adjusted price of crude oil had risen 164%. The embargo also led to a selloff in the stock market, with the recovery taking almost six years.

    Historical oil prices rose rapidly from 2004-2008. During that time, economic growth was fueling oil demand but there was little spare production capacity. By the second quarter of 2008, inflation-adjusted oil prices hit a high of $125 per barrel. They crashed by 66% shortly thereafter due to the global financial crisis.

    Most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and associated containment measures caused historical oil prices to drop by nearly 40% in three months. Oil prices have since risen 216% from their pandemic low, as of the first quarter of 2022. This is due to the economic recovery and Russiaโ€™s invasion of Ukraine.

    Oil as an Investment

    Investorsโ€™ interest in oil as an alternative investment has risen in recent years. Given the high volatility in historical oil prices, investors may want to consider their comfort with this level of risk. Of course, an investorโ€™s sustainability goals may also be a factor when choosing whether to invest in oil.

    However, oil also presents opportunities. It has had low-to-negative correlation with U.S. bonds in recent years and may help investors diversify their portfolios. Not only that, it may help investors manage rising interest rates. An economic recovery typically leads to rising interest rates, but also more energy demand. Oil prices have historically climbed during these periods.

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Markets in a Minute

Mapped: Interest Rates by Country in 2022

For the vast majority of countries, interest rates are marching upward. Hereโ€™s how they break down in 2022.

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Interest Rates

This infographic is available as a poster.

Mapped: Interest Rates by Country

Soaring inflation, the war in Ukraine, and strengthening economies are spurring interest rate increases around the world. At the same time, central banks are unwinding record monetary stimulus from COVID-19.

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we show interest rates by country in 2022. Interest rates are based on short-term benchmark policy rates set out by central banks.

Interest Rates Around the World in 2022

While the vast majority of countries saw a decline in interest rates over recent years, this trend is reversing for many in 2022.

After hovering at 0.0%, the U.S. increased its short-term interest rate to 0.5%. Experts project up to seven interest rate hikes this year, with interest rates rising as high as 1.9% by year-end.

For many countries in Europe, interest rates climbed out of negative territory for the first time since 2014. Interest rates now sit at 0.0% across the European Union.

Country/ Region
Short-Term Interest Rate (%)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Albania1.0
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Armenia9.3
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia 0.1
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan7.8
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ธ Bahamas4.0
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh4.8
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง Barbados2.0
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus12.0
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium0.0
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ Belize2.3
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ด Bolivia 3.9
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ Botswana3.8
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil11.8
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada0.5
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ Chad3.5
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile7.0
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China3.7
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia5.0
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Congo7.5
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ท Costa Rica2.5
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บ Cuba2.3
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic5.0
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark-0.6
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican Republic5.5
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador7.2
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt9.3
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Fiji0.3
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland0.0
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia11.0
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡พ Guyana5.0
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong0.8
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary4.4
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland2.8
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India4.0
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia3.5
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel0.1
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Jamaica4.5
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan-0.1
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan2.8
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Kazakhstan13.5
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Kenya7.0
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Kyrgyzstan10.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos3.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง Lebanon7.8
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lesotho4.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡พ Libya3.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia1.8
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ป Maldives7.0
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Mali4.0
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico6.5
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mongolia9.0
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco1.5
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต Nepal7.0
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands0.0
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand1.0
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Nigeria11.5
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway0.8
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ Pakistan12.3
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay6.3
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru4.5
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines2.0
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland4.5
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal0.0
๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar2.5
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania3.0
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผ Rwanda5.0
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia1.3
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia1.5
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra Leone14.3
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore0.3
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovakia0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa4.3
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea1.3
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South Sudan12.0
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain0.0
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka13.5
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Swaziland4.0
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden0.0
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland-0.8
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan1.4
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand0.5
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia6.3
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey14.0
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Uganda6.5
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine10.0
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช United Arab Emirates1.8
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom0.8
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States0.5
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ Vietnam4.0
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Zambia9.0

*Australia, China, India, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, Serbia, Romania data as of April 2022.
Reflects data for March or February 2022 depending on latest available data.
Source: Trading Economics (Apr 2022)

In Latin America, several central banks are taking a hawkish stance as oil price shocks are causing inflation to accelerate.

Mexico raised its benchmark interest rate to 6.5% in March in response to inflation hitting 20-year highs. Even before the war in Ukraine, global factors such as rising oil and import prices were already having a greater impact on Latin American countries than advanced economies.

Unlike the U.S. and most countries located in Europe and Latin America, China is anticipated to potentially lower its interest rates.

A renewed COVID-19 wave has slowed growth, with the government requiring countless factories to close in order to combat the spread of the Omicron variant. Disruptions have cascaded across supply chainsโ€”from electric vehicles to iPhonesโ€” leaving goods in shorter supply. China is responsible for roughly one-third of global manufacturing.

High-Water Mark

Which countries have the highest interest rates in 2022?

Interest Rates

At an eye-watering 80%, Zimbabwe has the highest interest rate of any country.

In early April, the central bank raised rates by 20 percentage points to combat a 73% inflation rate. Small businesses, teachers, and analysts have been urging the government to adopt the U.S. dollar to boost economic and investor confidence amid currency woes.

With an interest rate of 44.5%, Argentina has the second-highest rate. To get closer to reaching the requirements for rescheduling its $40 billion loan to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the central bank raised interest rates for the second time this year. The IMF requires having interest rates above the rate of inflation. As of February, Argentina’s inflation exceeded 50%.

Meanwhile, oil-rich countries such as Angola (20%), Iran (18%), and Russia (17%) all made it into the top 10 for highest rates globally.

Treading Water

What is the outlook for interest rates in 2022 and beyond?

In the short term, experts believe interest rates will likely rise to fight inflation. They could also play a role in slower economic growth, especially if raised too quickly. Recently, the World Bank revised global growth to 3.2% due to the war in Ukraine and rising food and energy pricesโ€”about a percentage point lower than its previous forecast of 4.1%.

The longer-term view may look different.

Structural factors, such as an aging population, will likely lead to an increase in savings rates for retirement. In theory, higher savings rates increases the total supply of funds, depressing the interest rate. By 2100, people over 50 are projected to rise from 25% to 40% of the global population.

The end of ultra-low interest rates may be over for now, but broader factors, including growing global debtโ€”which stands at 355% of the world’s GDPโ€”suggests it may be a short to medium-term adjustment.

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