Markets in a Minute
Mapped: Inflation Forecasts by Country in 2022
This infographic is available as a poster.
This infographic is available as a poster.
Mapped: Inflation Forecasts by Country in 2022
What will inflation look like in 2022?
Today, this is a question on many investors’ minds. Across several countries, inflation has hit its highest level in decades. Supply shortages and massive monetary stimulus have contributed to increasing consumer prices. Asset prices, including houses, have also risen significantly.
In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments we show inflation by country in 2022 according to IMF projections.
Inflation by Country in 2022
Inflation rates are based on the annual percentage change in average consumer prices. This measures the average level of prices in a country based on a basket of goods and services over a given time period.
Here are forecasted inflation rates for the largest economies worldwide, and how they compare to pre-pandemic levels:
| Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices (Annual % Change) | 2019 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | 1.5% | 3.5% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 1.4% | 1.5% |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| 🇮🇳 India | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| 🇫🇷 France | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 0.6% | 1.8% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 1.9% | 2.6% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 0.4% | 1.6% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 4.5% | 4.8% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 3.7% | 5.3% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 34.6% | 27.5% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | -2.1% | 2.2% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 0.4% | 0.6% |
With the highest rate across advanced economies, the U.S. could see inflation at 3.5% in 2022. Over the last two years, the U.S. central bank has doubled the assets on its balance sheet, which stand at roughly 27% of GDP.
Inflation rates tell a different story in China. Rates are forecasted to fall below pre-pandemic levels, reaching 1.8%. In fact, across East Asia, prices have been largely immune to inflationary pressures, but this could change in 2022.
While inflation is rising in Europe, it’s at roughly half the rate as the U.S., with Germany, France, and Italy projected to see inflation rates below 2%. However, the UK is an outlier, with inflation set to reach 2.6%.
What Are the Effects of Inflation?
What is driving inflation around advanced economies?
In the U.S., energy prices rose over 29% between 2020 and 2021. Meanwhile, food costs have increased 6.5%, driven by labor shortages, domestic demand, rising cost of feed and other inputs.
Looking forward, Kraft Heinz, General Mills, Starbucks and several other corporations have announced price hikes in 2022.
| Consumer Price Inflation (Annual % Change 2020-2021) | Energy | Food | All Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | 29.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 16.4% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 18.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 24.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% |
| 🇫🇷 France | 19.6% | 1.4% | 2.8% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 29.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 21.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% |
Source: Refinitiv, OECD
In Japan, businesses are taking a different approach. Instead of input costs passing on to consumers, companies are absorbing the costs to avoid the risk of losing business. For instance, when Kikkoman announced 4-10% increases in 2021, it made national news.
This has been a typical practice for decades amid low growth, stagnant wages, and a deflationary environment.
Highest Inflation by Country in 2022
Venezuela is the highest in the world, with a forecasted 2,000% rise in inflation.
Since October, the central bank has been printing as many as $100 million bolívars per week to help stabilize the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. Hyperinflation has run rampant since 2017, with U.S oil sanctions adding significant challenges to the economy.
These bans on Venezuelan exports have caused damaging economic impacts and instability.
| Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices (Annual % Change) | 2019 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| 🇻🇪 Venezuela | 19,906% | 2,000% |
| 🇸🇩 Sudan | 51.0% | 41.8% |
| 🇸🇷 Suriname | 4.4% | 31.7% |
| 🇾🇪 Yemen | 12.0% | 31.5% |
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 255.3% | 30.7% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 34.6% | 27.5% |
| 🇸🇸 South Sudan | 51.2% | 24.0% |
| 🇿🇲 Zambia | 9.2% | 19.2% |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti | 17.3% | 15.5% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 15.2% | 15.4% |
| 🇦🇴 Angola | 17.1% | 14.9% |
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria | 11.4% | 13.3% |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | 14.8% | 13.3% |
| 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan | 5.1% | 13.0% |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | 27.0% | 11.8% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 14.5% | 10.9% |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | 9.5% | 9.9% |
| 🇲🇼 Malawi | 9.4% | 9.0% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | 7.1% | 8.8% |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | 6.7% | 8.5% |
| 🇧🇾 Belarus | 5.6% | 8.3% |
| 🇱🇾 Libya | 0.2% | 8.0% |
| 🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic | 1.1% | 7.8% |
| 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe | 7.7% | 7.8% |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 2.0% | 7.6% |
| 🇲🇳 Mongolia | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 7.9% | 7.1% |
| 🇧🇹 Bhutan | 2.8% | 6.9% |
| 🇲🇺 Mauritius | 0.5% | 6.6% |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan | 5.2% | 6.5% |
| 🇲🇲 Myanmar | 8.6% | 6.5% |
| 🇹🇯 Tajikistan | 7.8% | 6.5% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia | 6.7% | 6.5% |
| 🇨🇩 DRC | 4.7% | 6.4% |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar | 5.6% | 6.4% |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | 2.8% | 6.4% |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | 13.9% | 6.3% |
| 🇬🇲 Gambia | 7.1% | 6.3% |
| 🇯🇲 Jamaica | 3.9% | 6.3% |
| 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | 4.3% | 6.2% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay | 7.9% | 6.1% |
| 🇦🇲 Armenia | 1.4% | 5.8% |
| 🇲🇩 Moldova | 4.3% | 5.8% |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| 🇳🇵 Nepal | 4.6% | 5.7% |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | 4.9% | 5.4% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 3.7% | 5.3% |
| 🇱🇸 Lesotho | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | 2.7% | 5.0% |
| World | 3.5% | 3.8% |
Like Venezuela, Iran faces high inflation, compounded by 960 U.S. sanctions. In addition, the country has been cut off from the international banking messaging system, SWIFT, to increase pressure on nuclear negotiations.
What this means is that Iranian banks can’t pay for exports or receive payment for imports.
Lowest Inflation by Country in 2022
On the other hand, Saint Kitts and Nevis is the only country projected to have negative inflation in 2022, at -0.5%. Not only that, disinflation is projected to increase from pre-pandemics levels.
| Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices (Annual % Change) | 2019 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| 🇰🇳 Saint Kitts and Nevis | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 🇬🇩 Grenada | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 🇸🇲 San Marino | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| 🇵🇼 Palau | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| 🇰🇲 Comoros | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand | 0.7% | 1.3% |
| 🇱🇺 Luxembourg | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| 🇦🇩 Andorra | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| 🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam | -0.4% | 1.5% |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 1.4% | 1.5% |
| 🇲🇪 Montenegro | 0.4% | 1.5% |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 0.6% | 1.5% |
| 🇹🇼 Taiwan | 0.5% | 1.5% |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 🇫🇷 France | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 0.4% | 1.6% |
| 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands | -0.5% | 1.6% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| 🇦🇼 Aruba | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| 🇫🇯 Fiji | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.6% | 1.8% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 0.8% | 1.8% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 0.6% | 1.8% |
| 🇲🇹 Malta | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| 🇸🇮 Slovenia | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 0.9% | 1.9% |
| 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | -0.9% | 2.0% |
| 🇨🇲 Cameroon | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| 🇩🇯 Djibouti | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| 🇩🇲 Dominica | 1.5% | 2.0% |
| 🇬🇦 Gabon | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | 0.3% | 2.0% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 2.2% | 2.0% |
Greece, Japan, and Switzerland all are forecasted to see inflation fall below 1%. Suppressed demand and low national economic output are factors behind low inflation rates in Greece, which has led to downward pressures on inflation.
The Future of Inflation Worldwide
A combination of factors unique to COVID-19 have pushed inflation to multi-decade highs. But will inflation eventually fade over time?
For many countries, the IMF forecasts that it will. By 2025, U.S. inflation is projected to reach 2.5%, while many advanced countries could see rates at or below the 2% target often set by central banks.
| Inflation Rate, Average Consumer Prices (Annual % Change) | 2022 | 2025E |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 1.8% | 2.0% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| 🇮🇳 India | 4.9% | 4.0% |
| 🇫🇷 France | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 1.6% | 2.0% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 5.3% | 3.1% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 2.1% | 2.4% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | 27.5% | 25.0% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 1.7% | 1.9% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 0.6% | 1.0% |
Structural forces that began to take hold in the 1980s have led to declining inflation rates for many years. These forces are not likely going away. Globalization is unlikely to stop and slowing energy demand may cause energy prices to level off.
In addition, as vaccination rates increase and more people enter the workforce, spending could move towards services, lessening the price pressures on goods. Central banks around the world have already started tightening monetary policy and stimulus measures, such as tapering bond purchases, which could help lower inflation.
As countries brace for higher inflation in the short-term, the long-term view may return to pre-pandemic trends.
Markets in a Minute
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
The global economy faces an uncertain future in 2023. This year, GDP growth is projected to be 2.9%—down from 3.2% in 2022.
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.
High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.
For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.
The map shows GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.
2023 GDP Growth Outlook
The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.
This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to China’s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.
With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwinds—and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.
| Country / Region | 2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected) | 2022 Real GDP % Change (Projected) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇱 Albania | 2.5% | 4.0% |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 2.6% | 4.7% |
| 🇦🇴 Angola | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda | 5.6% | 6.0% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina* | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 🇦🇲 Armenia | 3.5% | 7.0% |
| 🇦🇼 Aruba | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia* | 1.6% | 3.8% |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 1.0% | 4.7% |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | 2.5% | 3.7% |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 6.0% | 7.2% |
| 🇧🇧 Barbados | 5.0% | 10.5% |
| 🇧🇾 Belarus | 0.2% | -7.0% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 0.4% | 2.4% |
| 🇧🇿 Belize | 2.0% | 3.5% |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | 6.2% | 5.7% |
| 🇧🇹 Bhutan | 4.3% | 4.0% |
| 🇧🇴 Bolivia | 3.2% | 3.8% |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil* | 1.2% | 2.8% |
| 🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| 🇧🇮 Burundi | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| 🇨🇲 Cameroon | 4.6% | 3.8% |
| 🇰🇭 Cambodia | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada* | 1.5% | 3.3% |
| 🇨🇫 Central African Republic | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| 🇹🇩 Chad | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | -1.0% | 2.0% |
| 🇨🇳 China* | 5.3% | 3.2% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 2.2% | 7.6% |
| 🇰🇲 Comoros | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | 3.5% | 5.9% |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo | 6.7% | 6.1% |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| 🇩🇯 Djibouti | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| 🇩🇲 Dominica | 4.9% | 6.0% |
| 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic | 4.5% | 5.3% |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt* | 4.0% | 6.6% |
| 🇸🇻 El Salvador | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea | -3.1% | 5.8% |
| 🇪🇷 Eritrea | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 🇪🇪 Estonia | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| 🇸🇿 Eswatini | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| 🇫🇯 Fiji | 6.9% | 12.5% |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 🇫🇷 France* | 0.7% | 2.5% |
| 🇲🇰 North Macedonia | 3.0% | |
| 🇬🇦 Gabon | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | 4.0% | 9.0% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany* | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | 2.8% | 3.6% |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | 1.8% | 5.2% |
| 🇬🇩 Grenada | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 🇬🇹 Guatemala | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| 🇬🇾 Guyana | 25.2% | 57.8% |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti | 0.5% | -1.2% |
| 🇭🇳 Honduras | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR | 3.9% | -0.8% |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 1.8% | 5.7% |
| 🇮🇸 Iceland | 2.9% | 5.1% |
| 🇮🇳 India* | 6.1% | 6.8% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia* | 4.8% | 5.3% |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 4.0% | 9.3% |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 4.0% | 9.0% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran* | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 3.0% | 6.1% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy* | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| 🇯🇲 Jamaica | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan* | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan* | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| 🇰🇮 Kiribati | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea* | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 🇽🇰 Kosovo | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 2.6% | 8.7% |
| 🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic | 3.2% | 3.8% |
| 🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R. | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| 🇱🇻 Latvia | 1.6% | 2.5% |
| 🇱🇸 Lesotho | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | 4.2% | 3.7% |
| 🇱🇾 Libya | 17.9% | -18.4% |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| 🇱🇺 Luxembourg | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 🇲🇴 Macao SAR | 56.7% | -22.4% |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| 🇲🇼 Malawi | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia* | 4.4% | 5.4% |
| 🇲🇻 Maldives | 6.1% | 8.7% |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| 🇲🇹 Malta | 3.3% | 6.2% |
| 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| 🇲🇺 Mauritius | 5.4% | 6.1% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico* | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| 🇫🇲 Micronesia | 2.9% | -0.6% |
| 🇲🇩 Moldova | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| 🇲🇳 Mongolia | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| 🇲🇪 Montenegro | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | 3.1% | 08% |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| 🇲🇲 Myanmar | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| 🇳🇦 Namibia | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| 🇳🇷 Nauru | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 🇳🇵 Nepal | 5.0% | 4.2% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands* | 0.6% | 4.5% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| 🇳🇮 Nicaragua | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| 🇳🇪 Niger | 7.3% | 6.7% |
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria* | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 2.6% | 3.6% |
| 🇴🇲 Oman | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan* | 2.0% | 6.0% |
| 🇵🇼 Palau | 12.3% | -2.8% |
| 🇵🇦 Panama | 4.0% | 7.5% |
| 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay | 4.3% | 0.2% |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines* | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| 🇵🇱 Poland* | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico | 0.4% | 4.8% |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| 🇨🇬 Republic of Congo | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia* | 0.3% | -3.4% |
| 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| 🇼🇸 Samoa | 4.0% | -5.0% |
| 🇸🇲 San Marino | 0.8% | 3.1% |
| 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia* | 2.6% | 7.6% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 8.1% | 4.7% |
| 🇷🇸 Serbia | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| 🇸🇨 Seychelles | 5.2% | 10.9% |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 2.3% | 3.0% |
| 🇸🇰 Slovak Republic | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| 🇸🇮 Slovenia | 1.7% | 5.7% |
| 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands | 2.6% | -4.5% |
| 🇸🇴 Somalia | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa* | 1.2% | 2.1% |
| 🇸🇸 South Sudan | 5.6% | 6.5% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain* | 1.1% | 4.3% |
| 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | -3.0% | -8.7% |
| 🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis | 4.8% | 9.8% |
| 🇱🇨 St. Lucia | 5.8% | 9.1% |
| 🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| 🇸🇩 Sudan | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| 🇸🇷 Suriname | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | -0.1% | 2.6% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| 🇹🇼 Taiwan | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| 🇹🇯 Tajikistan | 4.0% | 5.5% |
| 🇹🇿 Tanzania | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand* | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| 🇧🇸 The Bahamas | 4.1% | 8.0% |
| 🇬🇲 The Gambia | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| 🇹🇬 Togo | 6.2% | 5.4% |
| 🇹🇴 Tonga | 2.9% | -2.0% |
| 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia | 1.6% | 2.2% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey* | 3.0% | 5.0% |
| 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| 🇹🇻 Tuvalu | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| 🇺🇬 Uganda | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | N/A | -35.0% |
| 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates | 4.2% | 5.1% |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom* | -0.6% | 3.6% |
| 🇺🇲 U.S.* | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay | 3.6% | 5.3% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 4.7% | 5.2% |
| 🇻🇺 Vanuatu | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| 🇻🇪 Venezuela | 6.5% | 6.0% |
| 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 6.2% | 7.0% |
| West Bank and Gaza | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| 🇾🇪 Yemen | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| 🇿🇲 Zambia | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 2.8% | 3.0% |
*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.
The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.
Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or ‘Patagonia-vest’ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.
Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.
Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.
China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.
A Long Way to Go
The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.
Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.
On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.
As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.
Markets in a Minute
Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022
U.S. retirement assets have faced challenging conditions amid market headwinds—but over the last decade these assets have nearly doubled.
This infographic is available as a poster.
Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022
Today, many people are questioning the effects of high inflation on their retirement assets.
This Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments charts the state of U.S. retirement assets to show how Americans are building their retirement savings, and where these assets are being drawn from.
U.S. Retirement Assets: Where it Stands Today
As of 2022, there was over $33 trillion being held in U.S. retirement assets.
For perspective, that’s about 31% of all household financial assets in America and nearly double the amount seen a decade ago. In the table below, we show how this breaks down by retirement asset type, using data from the Investment Company Institute:
| Type of Retirement Asset | 2022* | 2012 | 2002 | 1992 | 1982 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRAs | $11.7T | $5.8T | $2.5T | $872B | $67B |
| DC Plans | $9.3T | $5.2T | $2.6T | $1.1T | $264B |
| State and Local Government DB Plans | $5.1T | $3.2T | $2.1T | $958B | $260B |
| Private-Sector DB Plans | $3.2T | $2.7T | $1.7T | $1.1T | $479B |
| Federal DB Plans | $2.2T | $1.3T | $800B | $411B | $99B |
| Annuities | $2.2T | $1.7T | $899B | $473B | $180B |
| Total | $33.7T | $19.9T | $10.5T | $5.0T | $1.3T |
*As of Q2 2022.
As seen above, individual retirement accounts (IRAs) hold the most retirement assets, at 34% of the total. Since 2012, they have doubled, jumping from $5.8 trillion to $11.7 trillion in 2022.
Today, about 37% of Americans hold an IRA.
With $9.3 trillion in assets, defined contribution (DC) plans are the second-greatest source of savings. These type of plans have the employee make contributions that are automatically deducted from their paycheck. Here, employers have the option to make contributions. Like IRAs, they have grown considerably in the last 10 years.
Defined benefit (DB) plans, meanwhile, have declined in usage, especially in the private sector. In 1982, private-sector DB plans made up almost 40% of U.S. retirement assets. In 2022, they accounted for under 10% of these assets.
Overall, retirement assets have declined in 2022 due to weak market performance—after a record year in 2021 driven by higher contributions, a strong market, and other factors.
U.S. Financial Security in 2022
With these factors at play, how are Americans feeling about their financial security, and how is this impacting their retirement outlook?
In one Ipsos survey, just 56% of Americans surveyed said they felt good about their overall level of financial security.
When it comes to their long-term outlook, chief among concerns is inflation. Over half surveyed said that it will likely have a big impact on their ability to save for retirement and meet other long-term financial goals. Rising interest rates and medical costs are other areas of concern, with about one-third saying they will have a large impact on achieving these outcomes.
Meanwhile, 59% of Americans said they feel confident they have enough savings to enjoy a comfortable retirement. Of these, Baby Boomers feel most confident at 70%, while Gen Z (48%) feels least confident.
The good news is that inflation looks to have hit its peak in the summer of 2022. Still, reaching a 2-3% target may take a longer period of time. With this in mind, looking to investment strategies that include floating-rate bonds and real estate, infrastructure, and value equities may help insulate retirement assets from market fluctations and inflation.
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