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Mapped: Global Macroeconomic Risk, by Country in 2022

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Mapped: Global Macroeconomic Risk, by Country in 2022

Risk Map

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The Global Macroeconomic Risk Map in 2022

When Russia invaded Ukraine, vital grain export routes shut down in Ukraine’s Port of Odesaโ€”causing global food prices to soar.

Since then, energy markets have been disrupted, leading European heating costs to skyrocket. Meanwhile, global inflation is high, and central banks around the world are raising interest rates in response to rising price pressures.

This Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments shows the world macroeconomic risk map in 2022 against a shifting economic landscape.

Macroeconomic Risk Map: The Methodology

Macroeconomic risk is an overarching metric that takes into account many external risk factors that could impact investor portfolios and business valuations within a country. These factors include items like monetary policy, trade flows, and the political climate.

In the data from Allianz Trade, a countryโ€™s macroeconomic risk is determined based on the following categories:

  • Economic Risk: Indebtedness, monetary policy, economic structure
  • Political Risk: Institutional independence, policy effectiveness, power concentration
  • Structural Business Environment: Ease of doing business, regulatory framework
  • Commercial Risk: Short-term demand disruption
  • Financing Risk: Risk of short-term disruptions of accounts receivables

In the context of this data, each calculation for macroeconomic risk level is ultimately a proxy representing the risk of companies not making debt payments within a given country.

Increasing Challenges

After the U.S. increased interest rates in the 1980s, many emerging markets fell into crisis as debt payments (denominated in U.S. dollars) rose. Fast forward 10 years later, and rising U.S. interest rates triggered the Mexican peso crisis in 1994.

More recently, in 2013, when the Fed began tapering its bond purchases, it led to steep investment outflows from India, Indonesia, and Brazil.

Today, as U.S. interest rates rise at the fastest pace in decades, emerging markets are facing new pressures. The good news is that some countries are absorbing the shock thanks to higher bank reserves and reasonable growth. However, at the same time, high inflation and social unrest are fueling higher risk.

Given this complex picture, which countries and jurisdictions are at the highest risk as geopolitical tensions unfold?

CountryRisk Level
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ซ AfghanistanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ AlbaniaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ด AngolaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท ArgentinaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ ArmeniaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ BangladeshHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง BarbadosHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ BelarusHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ BelizeHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ด BoliviaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia and HerzegovinaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ Burkina FasoHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ BurundiHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ซ Central African RepublicHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ ChadHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฒ ComorosHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Congo (Democratic Rep Of)High Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Congo (People's Rep Of)High Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บ CubaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ถ Equatorial GuineaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ท EritreaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡น EthiopiaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ FijiHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ GabonHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฒ GambiaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช GeorgiaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ณ Republic of GuineaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ผ Guinea BissauHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น HaitiHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท IranHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ IraqHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ KazakhstanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฌ KyrgyzstanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ LaosHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง LebanonHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ท LiberiaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡พ LibyaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ MadagascarHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ MalawiHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ป MaldivesHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ MaliHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ญ Marshall IslandsHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ท MauritaniaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ MoldovaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ MongoliaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ช MontenegroHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฟ MozambiqueHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Myanmar (Burma)High Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ท NauruHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต NepalHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ NicaraguaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ช NigerHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ NigeriaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ต North KoreaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ PakistanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฌ Papua New GuineaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RussiaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ SeychellesHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra LeoneHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ง Solomon IslandsHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด SomaliaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธ South SudanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri LankaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ SudanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท SurinameHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ SyriaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฏ TajikistanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฑ Timor LesteHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฌ TogoHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ด TongaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ TunisiaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฒ TurkmenistanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ UkraineHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ UzbekistanHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช VenezuelaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช YemenHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ ZambiaHigh Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ผ ZimbabweHigh Risk

Authoritarian rule has gripped Afghanistan, with the Taliban seeing its one-year anniversary of rule. Argentina, also at high risk, faces over 70% annual increases in inflation which could rise as much as 100% by year-end.

After the invasion of Ukraine, Russiaโ€™s risk was moved to the highest level. Despite sweeping sanctions across the ninth-largest economy in the world, GDP is projected to fall -3.4%.

Weathering the Storm

Despite often facing their own challenges, many countries continue to be deemed to have low macroeconomic risk. Several of these are in Europe, Asia, and smaller island jurisdictions, in addition to North America.

CountryRisk Level
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ธ American SamoaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฉ AndorraLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ถ AntarcticaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ AustraliaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น AustriaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช BelgiumLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฒ BermudaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฌ British Virgin IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ CanadaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ถ Caribbean NetherlandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡พ Cayman IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Christmas IslandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡จ Cocos (Keeling) IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech RepublicLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ DenmarkLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช EstoniaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Falkland IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ด Faroe IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ FinlandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ซ French GuianaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท FranceLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ซ French Southern TerritoryLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช GermanyLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฎ GibraltarLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฑ GreenlandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ต GuadeloupeLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡บ GuamLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Heard and McDonald IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช IrelandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น ItalyLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต JapanLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป LatviaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฎ LiechtensteinLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น LithuaniaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ LuxembourgLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น MaltaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡จ MonacoLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ถ MartiniqueLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡น MayotteLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ NetherlandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡จ New CaledoniaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New ZealandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ซ Norfolk IslandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ต Northern Mariana IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด NorwayLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ณ Pitcairn IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ช ReunionLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San MarinoLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ SingaporeLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ SlovakiaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ธ South Georgia/Sandwich IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South KoreaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ SpainLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ญ St HelenaLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฒ St. Pierre Et MiquelonLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Svalbard & Jan MayenLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช SwedenLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ SwitzerlandLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ TaiwanLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฐ TokelauLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡จ Turks & CaicosLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United KingdomLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United StatesLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฎ U.S. Virgin IslandsLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ฆ Vatican CityLow Risk
๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡ซ Wallis & FutunaLow Risk

Although Taiwan faces increased tensions with China, risk remains low due to strong institutions and a stable multiparty democracy. Still, Chinaโ€™s aim to govern the country could intensify and become more explicit.

Additionally, the United Kingdom has faced growing market instability after bold tax-cut announcements which were later abandoned. Investors have grown uneasy, illustrated by the fall in the sterling and rising gilt yields, the yields on their government bonds.

In the U.S., rising interest rates could likely place added risk on corporate debt.

Today, U.S. corporate debt stands at 80% of GDP, up from 67% in 2007. Roughly a third of this debt falls within the lowest investment-grade level, BBB. However, reforms that followed the Global Financial Crisis required banks to follow stricter capital requirements, which has put regulated institutions in a stronger position to withstand market turmoil.

Future Risks

With these factors in mind, the chart below looks at the top 10 geopolitical risks looking ahead, according to risk consulting firm Kroll.

Geopolitical Risks

The risk of Russia entirely cutting off gas supplies to Europe could present increasing challenges, especially into 2023 and 2024. This year, Russiaโ€™s gas supplies to Europe have reduced by half, causing energy prices to hit record highs. The energy crunch has precipitated corporate bailouts, including one of the highest in Germanyโ€™s history.

Global food insecurity could also accelerate if a supply crunch worsens. Russia and Ukraine supply 10% of the worldโ€™s calories and provide 26 countries with at least half of their grain products.

Another potential risk is the trend towards deglobalization. While this can be difficult to measure, some data points towards this shift. Over the past few years, world trade to GDP has stagnated after rising for several decades.

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Markets in a Minute

Charted: The Rise of Stock Buybacks Over 20 Years

Unlike the last two downturns, stock buybacks could hit a record $1.3T in 2022. We chart their growth over the last two decades.

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Stock Buybacks

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Chart: The Rise of Stock Buybacks Over 20 Years

Despite market turbulence, stock buybacks are on track to hit record levels by year-end.

Spurring this wave of buybacks are strong corporate cash flowsโ โ€”sitting near $2 trillionโ€”and a 1% excise tax on buybacks approaching in 2023. This signals a vote of confidence from corporations on their financial health even as a recession looms large.

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we chart the growth of buybacks over the last two decades and the implications for investors looking ahead.

How Stock Buybacks Work

In stock buybacks, corporations buy their own shares from existing shareholders. This reduces the number of shares in the market and boosts earnings per share. Often, this can increase share prices given the rise in earnings growth.

It was not until 1982 that share repurchases became legal, driving wider usage among corporations as a capital allocation tool.

By comparison, dividends are another common form of distributing capital back to shareholders.

Dividends are bound by strict policies and do not offer the same tax advantages and flexibility as buybacks. While dividends are taxed as income, buybacks are taxed as capital gainsโ€”making them a preferential choice for investors. Given these advantages, stock buybacks have outpaced dividends over the last two decades.

In fact, in the third quarter of 2022, an estimated one in five companies in the S&P 500 Index conducted buybacks that in turn increased their earnings per share by at least 4% year-over-year.

Stock Buyback Trends

As the below table shows, stock buybacks in the S&P 500 Index outnumber dividends by about double in 2022:

YearS&P 500 Stock BuybacksS&P 500 Dividends
2022*$1.00T$0.54T
2021$0.88T$0.51T
2020$0.52T$0.48T
2019$0.73T$0.49T
2018$0.81T$0.46T

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices (Sep 2022). *For the 12-months ending June 2022.

However, stock buybacks fluctuate more often than dividends since corporations can turn them on or off. For example, in 2020, buybacks sharply declined given growing financial uncertainty. Meanwhile, companies issued dividends at a steady pace.

In this way, when share prices decline, buybacks typically decrease.

Yet unlike the last two recessions in 2008 and 2020, buybacks have shown notable strength in 2022 in spite of falling share prices.

What Are the Top Sectors for Stock Buybacks?

We can see in the table below that the biggest share repurchasers are in the tech sector, with $2.1 trillion in buybacks since 2009.

SectorCumulative Buybacks Since 2009Q2 Buybacks
Information Technology$2,060.4B$72.0B
Financials$1,265.0B$21.2B
Consumer Discretionary $941.7B$27.6B
Health Care$929.1B$17.2B
Industrials$717.6B$17.4B
Consumer Staples$548.1B$10.7B
Communication Services$369.6B$29.4B
Energy$337.9B$13.4B
Materials$187.0B$8.7B
Utilities $26.8B$0.5B
Real Estate$16.9B$1.1B
Total$7,382.6B$219.6B

Source: Yardeni Research (Nov 2022). Represents stock buybacks for S&P 500 Index sectors.

On the other hand, utilities and other capital-intensive sectors tend to spend less on buybacks in contrast to asset-light sectors such as tech and financials.

What is also characteristic to share buybacks is their concentration. As we have seen in the second quarter this year, the top 20% of buybacks make up 47% of all repurchases across the S&P 500 Index.

New Tax On Stock Buybacks

Stock buybacks have drawn criticism for using cash to benefit shareholders instead of boosting production or improving the quality of the business.

In response, beginning in 2023, the Inflation Reduction Act puts a 1% excise tax on buybacks.

What this means is that public companies based in the U.S. must now pay a 1% tax on share repurchases, which could result in millions of additional expenses. Given this new tax rule, corporations may be accelerating buybacks ahead of year-end.

Implications for Investors

As stock buybacks have grown in prominence, itโ€™s worth noting that not all are equal.

When a buyback aligns with a companyโ€™s long-term plan, and the company can cover their operational expenses, it can support the stability and growth of the company. When stock prices are volatile, companies can repurchase shares when they are undervalued.

By contrast, if a company takes on excess leverage in order to buyback shares, it can contribute to lower financial resilience. When a company uses a buyback to opportunistically repurchase shares, the boost in share prices may be short-lived.

In addition, it could also prevent capital from being directed to growth initiatives. In this way, itโ€™s important to consider stock buybacks on a case-by-case basis.

With this in mind, investors can look to companies with healthy balance sheets that can weather economic storms. Here, companies that illustrate price discipline and buy back shares at a discount may help build long-term value, providing benefits to investors who stay the course.

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Mapped: Global Energy Prices, by Country in 2022

Energy prices have been extremely volatile in 2022. Which countries are seeing the highest prices in the world?

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Energy Prices

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Mapped: Global Energy Prices, by Country in 2022

For some countries, energy prices hit historic levels in 2022.

Gasoline, electricity, and natural gas prices skyrocketed as Russiaโ€™s invasion of Ukraine ruptured global energy supply chains. Households and businesses are facing higher energy bills amid extreme price volatility. Uncertainty surrounding the war looms large, and winter heating costs are projected to soar.

Given the global consequences of the energy crisis, this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments shows the price of energy for households by country.

1. Global Energy Prices: Gasoline

Which countries and regions pay the most for a gallon of gas?

RankCountry/ RegionGasoline Prices
(USD per Gallon)
1๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong$11.1
2๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ซ Central African Republic$8.6
3๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland$8.5
4๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway$8.1
5๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง Barbados$7.8
6๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark$7.7
7๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece$7.6
8๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland$7.6
9๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands$7.6
10๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium$7.4
11๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom$7.2
12๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia$7.2
13๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland$7.2
14๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore$7.2
15๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden$7.1
16๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ Seychelles$7.1
17๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel$7.0
18๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany$7.0
19๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay$7.0
20๐Ÿ‡ผ๐Ÿ‡ซ Wallis and Futuna$7.0
21๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Liechtenstein$6.9
22๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland$6.8
23๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal$6.8
24๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia$6.7
25๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ Belize$6.7
26๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Albania$6.6
27๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria$6.6
28๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡จ Monaco$6.6
29๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain$6.6
30๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic$6.5
31๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ Malawi$6.5
32๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡พ Cayman Islands$6.4
33๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovakia$6.4
34๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บ Mauritius$6.3
35๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg$6.3
36๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania$6.3
37๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Andorra$6.3
38๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy$6.3
39๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Uganda$6.2
40๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary$6.2
41๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan$6.2
42๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ Syria$6.1
43๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France$6.0
44๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ Burundi$6.0
45๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ธ Bahamas$6.0
46๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand$5.8
47๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฒ San Marino$5.8
48๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia$5.8
49๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania$5.7
50๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡น Mayotte$5.7
51๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผ Rwanda$5.7
52๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Zambia$5.7
53๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia$5.7
54๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Laos$5.6
55๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ณ Mongolia$5.6
56๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Kenya$5.6
57๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Cyprus$5.6
58๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Jamaica$5.5
59๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Northern Macedonia$5.5
60๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile$5.5
61๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia$5.5
62๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡จ Saint Lucia$5.5
63๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland$5.4
64๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican Republic$5.4
65๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada$5.4
66๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco$5.4
67๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ผ Aruba$5.4
68๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia$5.4
69๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria$5.3
70๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru$5.3
71๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Sri Lanka$5.3
72๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ท Costa Rica$5.2
73๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Madagascar$5.2
74๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ณ Guinea$5.2
75๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต Nepal$5.2
76๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Mozambique$5.2
77๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Nicaragua$5.2
78๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Mali$5.1
79๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal$5.1
80๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine$5.2
81๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Dominica$5.0
82๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ช Montenegro$5.0
83๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta$5.0
84๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Moldova$5.0
85๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ DR Congo$5.0
86๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผ Curacao$5.0
87๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde$4.9
88๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh$4.9
89๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ท Liberia$4.9
90๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia$4.8
91๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India$4.8
92๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บ Cuba$4.8
93๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ณ Honduras$4.7
94๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช Georgia$4.7
95๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa$4.7
96๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ Tanzania$4.7
97๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฏ Fiji$4.7
98๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China$4.7
99๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico$4.6
100๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡น Guatemala$4.6

Source: GlobalPetrolPrices.com. As of October 31, 2022. Represents average household prices.

At an average $11.1 USD per gallon, households in Hong Kong pay the highest for gasoline in the worldโ€”more than double the global average. Both high gas taxes and steep land costs are primary factors behind high gas prices.

Like Hong Kong, the Central African Republic has high gas costs, at $8.6 USD per gallon. As a net importer of gasoline, the country has faced increased price pressures since the war in Ukraine.

Households in Iceland, Norway, and Denmark face the highest gasoline costs in Europe. Overall, Europe has seen inflation hit 10% in September, driven by the energy crisis.

2. Global Energy Prices: Electricity

Extreme volatility is also being seen in electricity prices.

The majority of the highest household electricity prices are in Europe, where Denmark, Germany, and Belgiumโ€™s prices are about double that of France and Greece. For perspective, electricity prices in many countries in Europe are more than twice or three times the global average of $0.14 USD per kilowatt-hour.

Over the first quarter of 2022, household electricity prices in the European Union jumped 32% compared to the year before.

RankCountry/ RegionElectricity Prices
(kWh, USD)
1๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark$0.46
2๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany$0.44
3๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium$0.41
4๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฒ Bermuda$0.40
5๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡พ Cayman Islands$0.35
6๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Jamaica$0.34
7๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom$0.32
8๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain$0.32
9๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands$0.32
10๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง Barbados$0.32
11๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia$0.32
12๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania$0.31
13๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria$0.31
14๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy$0.30
15๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic$0.29
16๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde$0.28
17๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland$0.28
18๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden$0.27
19๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ธ Bahamas$0.26
20๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡น Guatemala$0.26
21๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Liechtenstein$0.26
22๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Cyprus$0.25
23๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผ Rwanda$0.25
24๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ณ Honduras$0.24
25๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay$0.24
26๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal$0.24
27๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ป El Salvador$0.23
28๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia$0.22
29๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland$0.22
30๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg$0.22
31๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฟ Belize$0.22
32๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan$0.22
33๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland$0.22
34๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru$0.21
35๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช Kenya$0.21
36๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia$0.21
37๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil$0.20
38๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Mali$0.20
39๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore$0.19
40๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania$0.19
41๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ซ Burkina Faso$0.19
42๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia$0.19
43๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Gabon$0.19
44๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovakia$0.19
45๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ผ Aruba$0.19
46๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece$0.19
47๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France$0.18
48๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand$0.18
49๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฌ Togo$0.18
50๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Nicaragua$0.17
51๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช Venezuela$0.17
52๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama$0.17
53๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines$0.17
54๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland$0.17
55๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel$0.16
56๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฒ U.S.$0.16
57๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Uganda$0.16
58๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong$0.16
59๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal$0.16
60๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ด Macao$0.15
61๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile$0.15
62๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ญ Cambodia$0.15
63๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa$0.14
64๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡บ Mauritius$0.14
65๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Madagascar$0.14
66๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia$0.14
67๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland$0.14
68๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway$0.13
69๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta$0.13
70๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Mozambique$0.13
71๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia$0.13
72๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria$0.12
73๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ป Maldives$0.12
74๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ท Costa Rica$0.12
75๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada$0.11
76๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ผ Malawi$0.11
77๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Ivory Coast$0.11
78๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Namibia$0.11
79๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco$0.11
80๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand$0.10
81๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฒ Armenia$0.10
82๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan$0.10
83๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ Tanzania$0.10
84๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Swaziland$0.10
85๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador$0.10
86๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ผ Botswana$0.10
87๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด Dominican Republic$0.10
88๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Northern Macedonia$0.10
89๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Albania$0.10
90๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lesotho$0.09
91๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Sierra Leone$0.09
92๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia$0.09
93๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus$0.09
94๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary$0.09
95๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia & Herzegovina$0.09
96๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan$0.09
97๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea$0.09
98๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico$0.09
99๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia$0.09
100๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ DR Congo$0.08

Source: GlobalPetrolPrices.com. As of March 31, 2022. Represents average household prices.

In the U.S., consumer electricity prices have increased nearly 16% annually compared to September last year, the highest increase in over four decades, fueling higher inflation.

However, households are more sheltered from the impact of Russian supply disruptions due to the U.S. being a net exporter of energy.

3. Global Energy Prices: Natural Gas

Eight of the 10 highest natural gas prices globally fall in Europe, with the Netherlands at the top. Overall, European natural gas prices have spiked sixfold in a year since the invasion of Ukraine.

RankCountry/ RegionNatural Gas Prices
(kWh, USD)
1๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands$0.41
2๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden$0.24
3๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany$0.21
4๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil$0.20
5๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark$0.19
6๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain$0.17
7๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy$0.16
8๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria$0.16
9๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore$0.15
10๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium$0.15
11๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong$0.14
12๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic$0.14
13๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece$0.12
14๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France$0.12
15๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan$0.11
16๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom$0.10
17๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland$0.10
18๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile$0.10
19๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal$0.09
20๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ง Barbados$0.09
21๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland$0.09
22๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria$0.09
23๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland$0.08
24๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia$0.07
25๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico$0.07
26๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand$0.06
27๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovakia$0.06
28๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฒ U.S.$0.05
29๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea$0.04
30๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia$0.04
31๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada$0.03
32๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia$0.03
33๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ Taiwan$0.03
34๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Ukraine$0.03
35๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia$0.03
36๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary$0.03
37๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia$0.02
38๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Azerbaijan$0.01
39๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ญ Bahrain$0.01
40๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ Bangladesh$0.01
41๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey$0.01
42๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia$0.01
43๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina$0.01
44๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡พ Belarus$0.01
45๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria$0.003
46๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran$0.001

Source: GlobalPetrolPrices.com. As of March 31, 2022. Represents average household prices.

The good news is that the fall season has been relatively warm, which has helped European natural gas demand drop 22% in October compared to last year. This helps reduce the risk of gas shortages transpiring later in the winter.

Outside of Europe, Brazil has the fourth highest natural gas prices globally, despite producing about half domestically. High costs of cooking gas have been especially challenging for low-income families, which became a key political issue in the run-up to the presidential election in October.

Meanwhile, Singapore has the highest natural gas prices in Asia as the majority is imported via tankers or pipelines, leaving the country vulnerable to price shocks.

Increasing Competition

By December, all seaborne crude oil shipments from Russia to Europe will come to a halt, likely pushing up gasoline prices into the winter and 2023.

Concerningly, analysis from the EIA shows that European natural gas storage capacities could sink to 20% by February if Russia completely shuts off its supply and demand is not reduced.

As Europe seeks out alternatives to Russian energy, higher demand could increase global competition for fuel sources, driving up prices for energy in the coming months ahead.

Still, there is some room for optimism: the World Bank projects energy prices will decline 11% in 2023 after the 60% rise seen after the war in Ukraine in 2022.

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