Markets in a Minute
Visualizing 90 Years of Stock and Bond Portfolio Performance
Visualizing 90 Years of Stock and Bond Portfolio Performance
Last year, stock and bond returns tumbled after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years. It was the first time in decades that both asset classes posted negative annual investment returns in tandem.
Over four decades, this has happened 2.4% of the time across any 12-month rolling period.
To look at how various stock and bond asset allocations have performed over history—and their broader correlations—the above graphic charts their best, worst, and average returns, using data from Vanguard.
How Has Asset Allocation Impacted Returns?
Based on data between 1926 and 2019, the table below looks at the spectrum of market returns of different asset allocations:
| Stock / Bond Portfolio Allocation | Best Annual Return | Worst Annual Return | Average Annual Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% / 100% | 32.6% | -8.1% | 5.3% |
| 10% / 90% | 31.2% | -8.2% | 6.0% |
| 20% / 80% | 29.8% | -10.1% | 6.6% |
| 30% / 70% | 28.4% | -14.2% | 7.2% |
| 40% / 60% | 27.9% | -18.4% | 7.8% |
| 50% / 50% | 32.3% | -22.5% | 8.3% |
| 60% / 40% | 36.7% | -26.6% | 8.8% |
| 70% / 30% | 41.1% | -30.7% | 9.2% |
| 80% / 20% | 45.4% | -34.9% | 9.6% |
| 90% / 10% | 49.8% | -39.0% | 10.0% |
| 100% / 0% | 54.2% | -43.1% | 10.3% |
We can see that a portfolio made entirely of stocks returned 10.3% on average, the highest across all asset allocations. Of course, this came with wider return variance, hitting an annual low of -43% and a high of 54%.
A traditional 60/40 portfolio—which has lost its luster in recent years as low interest rates have led to lower bond returns—saw an average historical return of 8.8%. As interest rates have climbed in recent years, this may widen its appeal once again as bond returns may rise.
Meanwhile, a 100% bond portfolio averaged 5.3% in annual returns over the period. Bonds typically serve as a hedge against portfolio losses thanks to their typically negative historical correlation to stocks.
A Closer Look at Historical Correlations
To understand how 2022 was an outlier in terms of asset correlations we can look at the graphic below:
The last time stocks and bonds moved together in a negative direction was in 1969. At the time, inflation was accelerating and the Fed was hiking interest rates to cool rising costs. In fact, historically, when inflation surges, stocks and bonds have often moved in similar directions.
Underscoring this divergence is real interest rate volatility. When real interest rates are a driving force in the market, as we have seen in the last year, it hurts both stock and bond returns. This is because higher interest rates can reduce the future cash flows of these investments.
Adding another layer is the level of risk appetite among investors. When the economic outlook is uncertain and interest rate volatility is high, investors are more likely to take risk off their portfolios and demand higher returns for taking on higher risk. This can push down equity and bond prices.
On the other hand, if the economic outlook is positive, investors may be willing to take on more risk, in turn potentially boosting equity prices.
Current Investment Returns in Context
Today, financial markets are seeing sharp swings as the ripple effects of higher interest rates are sinking in.
For investors, historical data provides insight on long-term asset allocation trends. Over the last century, cycles of high interest rates have come and gone. Both equity and bond investment returns have been resilient for investors who stay the course.
Markets in a Minute
The Top 5 Reasons Clients Fire a Financial Advisor
Firing an advisor is often driven by more than cost and performance factors. Here are the top reasons clients ‘break up’ with their advisors.
The Top 5 Reasons Clients Fire a Financial Advisor
What drives investors to fire a financial advisor?
From saving for a down payment to planning for retirement, clients turn to advisors to guide them through life’s complex financial decisions. However, many of the key reasons for firing a financial advisor stem from emotional factors, and go beyond purely financial motivations.
We partnered with Morningstar to show the top reasons clients fire an advisor to provide insight on what’s driving investor behavior.
What Drives Firing Decisions?
Here are the top reasons clients terminated their advisor, based on a survey of 184 respondents:
| Reason for Firing | % of Respondents Citing This Reason | Type of Motivation |
|---|---|---|
| Quality of financial advice and services | 32% | Emotion-based reason |
| Quality of relationship | 21% | Emotion-based reason |
| Cost of services | 17% | Financial-based reason |
| Return performance | 11% | Financial-based reason |
| Comfort handling financial issues on their own | 10% | Emotion-based reason |
Numbers may not total 100 due to rounding. Respondents could select more than one answer.
Numbers may not total 100 due to rounding. Respondents could select more than one answer.
While firing an advisor is rare, many of the primary drivers behind firing decisions are also emotionally driven.
Often, advisors were fired due to the quality of the relationship. In many cases, this was due to an advisor not dedicating enough time to fully grasp their personal financial goals. Additionally, wealthier, and more financially literate clients are more likely to fire their advisors—highlighting the importance of understanding the client.
Key Takeaways
Given these driving factors, here are five ways that advisors can build a lasting relationship through recognizing their clients’ emotional needs:
- Understand your clients’ deeper goals
- Reach out proactively
- Act as a financial coach
- Keep clients updated
- Conduct goal-setting exercises on a regular basis
By communicating their value and setting expectations early, advisors can help prevent setbacks in their practice by adeptly recognizing the emotional motivators of their clients.
Markets in a Minute
The Top 5 Reasons Clients Hire a Financial Advisor
Here are the most common drivers for hiring a financial advisor, revealing that investor motivations go beyond just financial factors.
The Top 5 Reasons Clients Hire a Financial Advisor
What drives investors to hire a financial advisor?
From saving for a down payment to planning for retirement, clients turn to advisors to guide them through life’s complex financial decisions. However, many of the key reasons for hiring a financial advisor stem from emotional factors, and go beyond purely financial motivations.
We partnered with Morningstar to show the top reasons clients hire a financial advisor to provide insight on what’s driving investor behavior.
What Drives Hiring Decisions?
Here are the most common reasons for hiring an advisor, based on a survey of 312 respondents.
| Reason for Hiring | % of Respondents Citing This Reason | Type of Motivation |
|---|---|---|
| Specific goals or needs | 32% | Financial-based reason |
| Discomfort handling finances | 32% | Emotion-based reason |
| Behavioral coaching | 17% | Emotion-based reason |
| Recommended by family or friends | 12% | Emotion-based reason |
| Quality of relationship | 10% | Emotion-based reason |
Numbers may not total 100 due to rounding. Respondents could select more than one answer.
While financial factors played an important role in hiring decisions, emotional reasons made up the largest share of total responses.
This illustrates that clients place a high degree of importance on reaching specific goals or needs, and how an advisor communicates with them. Furthermore, clients seek out advisors for behavioral coaching to help them make informed decisions while staying the course.
Key Takeaways
With this in mind, here are five ways advisors can provide value to their clients and grow their practice:
- Address clients’ emotional needs early on
- Demonstrate how you can offer support
- Use ordinary language
- Provide education to help clients stay on track
- Acknowledge that these are issues we all face
By addressing emotional factors, advisors can more effectively help clients’ navigate intricate financial decisions and avoid common behavioral mistakes.
The Top 5 Reasons Clients Fire a Financial Advisor
The Top 5 Reasons Clients Hire a Financial Advisor
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