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Visualizing the History of U.S. Inflation Over 100 Years

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This infographic is available as a poster.

Visualizing the History of U.S. Inflation Over 100 Years

Inflation

This infographic is available as a poster.

Visualizing the History of U.S. Inflation Over 100 Years

Is inflation rising?

The consumer price index (CPI), an index used as a proxy for inflation in consumer prices, offers some answers. In 2020, inflation dropped to 1.4%, the lowest rate since 2015. By comparison, inflation sits around 2.5% as of June 2021.

For context, recent numbers are just above rates seen in 2019, which were 2.3%. Given how the economic shock of COVID-19 depressed prices, rising price levels make sense. However, other variables, such as a growing money supply and rising raw materials costs, could factor into rising inflation.

To show current price levels in context, this Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments shows the history of inflation over 100 years.

U.S. Inflation: Early History

Between the founding of the U.S. in 1776 to the year 1914, one thing was for sure—wartime periods were met with high inflation.

At the time, the U.S. operated under a classical Gold Standard regime, with the dollar’s value tied to gold. During the Civil War and World War I, the U.S. went off the Gold Standard in order to print money and finance the war. When this occurred, it triggered inflationary episodes, with prices rising upwards of 20% in 1918.

YearInflation Rate*
19141.0%
19152.0%
191612.6%
191718.1%
191820.4%
191914.6%
19202.7%
1921-10.8%
1922-2.3%
19232.4%
19240%
19253.5%
1926-1.1%
1927-2.3%
1928-1.2%
19290.6%
1930-6.4%
1931-9.3%
1932-10.3%
19330.8%
19341.5%
19353.0%
19361.5%
19372.9%
1938-2.8%
19390.0%
19400.7%
19419.9%
19429.0%
19433.0%
19442.3%
19452.3%
194618.1%
19478.8%
19483.0%
1949-2.1%
19505.9%
19516.0%
19520.8%
19530.8%
1954-0.7%
19550.4%
19563.0%
19572.9%
19581.8%
19591.7%
19601.4%
19610.7%
19621.3%
19631.6%
19641.0%
19651.9%
19663.5%
19673.0%
19684.7%
19696.2%
19705.6%
19713.3%
19723.4%
19738.7%
197412.3%
19756.9%
19764.9%
19776.7%
19789.0%
197913.3%
198012.5%
19818.9%
19823.8%
19833.8%
19844.0%
19853.8%
19861.1%
19874.4%
19884.4%
19894.7%
19906.1%
19913.1%
19922.9%
19932.8%
19942.7%
19952.5%
19963.3%
19971.7%
19981.6%
19992.7%
20003.4%
20011.6%
20022.4%
20031.9%
20043.3%
20053.4%
20062.5%
20074.1%
20080.1%
20092.7%
20101.5%
20113.0%
20121.7%
20131.5%
20140.8%
20150.7%
20162.1%
20172.1%
20181.9%
20192.3%
20201.4%
20212.5%

Source: Macrotrends (June, 2021)
*As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)

However, when the government returned to a modified Gold Standard, deflationary periods followed, leading prices to effectively stabilize, on average, leading up to World War II.

The Move to Bretton Woods

Like post-World War I, the Great Depression of the 1930s coincided with deflationary pressures on prices. Due to the rigidity of the monetary system at the time, countries had difficulty increasing money supply to help boost their economy. Many countries exited the Gold Standard during this time, and by 1933 the U.S. abandoned it completely.

A decade later, with the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944, global currency exchange values pegged to the dollar, while the dollar was pegged to gold. The U.S. held the majority of gold reserves, and the global reserve currency transitioned from the sterling pound to the dollar.

1970’s Regime Change

By 1971, the ability for gold to cover the supply of U.S. dollars in circulation became an increasing concern.

Leading up to this point, a surplus of money supply was created due to military expenses, foreign aid, and others. In response, President Richard Nixon abandoned the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 for a floating exchange, known as the “Nixon shock”. Under a floating exchange regime, rates fluctuate based on supply and demand relative to other currencies.

A few years later, oil shocks of 1973 and 1974 led inflation to soar past 12%. By 1979, inflation surged in excess of 13%.

The Volcker Era

In 1979, Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker was sworn in, and he introduced stark changes to combat inflation that differed from previous regimes.

Instead of managing inflation through interest rates, which the Federal Reserve had done previously, inflation would be managed through controlling the money supply. If the money supply was limited, this would cause interest rates to increase.

While interest rates jumped to 20% in 1980, by 1983 inflation dropped below 4% as the economy recovered from the recession of 1982, and oil prices rose more moderately. Over the last four decades, inflation levels have remained relatively stable since the measures of the Volcker era were put in place.

Fluctuating Prices Over History

Throughout U.S. history. there have been periods of high inflation.

As the chart below illustrates, at least four distinct periods of high inflation have emerged between 1800 and 2010. The GDP deflator measurement shown accounts for the price change of all of an economy’s goods and services, as opposed to the CPI index which is a fixed basket of goods.

It is measured as GDP Price Deflator = (Nominal GDP ÷ Real GDP) × 100.
Inflation using GDP Price Deflator

According to this measure, inflation hit its highest levels in the 1910s, averaging nearly 8% annually over the decade. Between 1914 and 1918 money supply doubled to finance war efforts, compared to a 25% increase in GDP during this period.

U.S. Inflation: Present Day

As the U.S. economy reopens, consumer demand has strengthened.

Meanwhile, supply bottlenecks, from semiconductor chips to lumber, are causing strains on automotive and tech industries. While this points towards increasing inflation, some suggest that it may be temporary, as prices were depressed in 2020.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve is following an “average inflation targeting” regime, which means that if a previous inflation shortfall occurred in the previous year, it would allow for higher inflationary periods to make up for them. As the last decade has been characterized by low inflation and low interest rates, any prolonged period of inflation will likely have pronounced effects on investors and financial markets.

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Markets in a Minute

How Small Investments Make a Big Impact Over Time

Compound interest is a powerful force in building wealth. Here’s how it impacts even the most modest portfolio over the long-term.

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This bar chart shows the power of compound interest and regular contributions over time.

How Small Investments Make a Big Impact Over Time

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Time is an investor’s biggest ally, even if they start with just a modest portfolio.

The reason behind this is compounding interest, of course, thanks to its ability to magnify returns as interest earns interest on itself. With a fortune of $159 billion, Warren Buffett largely credits compound interest as a vital ingredient to his success—describing it like a snowball collecting snow as it rolls down a very long hill.

This graphic shows how compound interest can dramatically impact the value of an investor’s portfolio over longer periods of time, based on data from Investor.gov.

Why Compound Interest is a Powerful Force

Below, we show how investing $100 each month, with a 10% annual return starting at the age of 25 can generate outsized returns by simply staying the course:

AgeTotal ContributionsInterestPortfolio Value
25$1,300$10$1,310
30$7,300$2,136$9,436
35$13,300$9,223$22,523
40$19,300$24,299$43,599
45$25,300$52,243$77,543
50$31,300$100,910$132,210
55$37,300$182,952$220,252
60$43,300$318,743$362,043
65$49,300$541,101$590,401
70$55,300$902,872$958,172
75$61,300$1,489,172$1,550,472

Portfolio value is at end of each time period. All time periods are five years except for the first year (Age 25) which includes a $100 initial contribution. Interest is computed annually.

As we can see, the portfolio grows at a relatively slow pace over the first five years.

But as the portfolio continues to grow, the interest earned begins to exceed the contributions in under 15 years. That’s because interest is earned not only on the total contributions but on the accumulated interest itself. So by the age of 40, the total contributions are valued at $19,300 while the interest earned soars to $24,299.

Not only that, the interest earned soars to double the value of the investor’s contributions over the next five years—reaching $52,243 compared to the $25,300 in principal.

By the time the investor is 75, the power of compound interest becomes even more eye-opening. While the investor’s lifetime contributions totaled $61,300, the interest earned ballooned to 25 times that value, reaching $1,489,172.

In this way, it shows that investing consistently over time can benefit investors who stick it through stock market ups and downs.

The Two Key Ingredients to Growing Money

Generally speaking, building wealth involves two key pillars: time and rate of return.

Below, we show how these key factors can impact portfolios based on varying time horizons using a hypothetical example. Importantly, just a small difference in returns can make a huge impact on a portfolio’s end value:

Annual ReturnPortfolio Value
25 Year Investment Horizon
Portfolio Value
75 Year Investment Horizon
5%$57,611$911,868
8%$88,412$4,835,188
12%$161,701$49,611,684

With this in mind, it’s important to take into account investment fees which can erode the value of your investments.

Even the difference of 1% in investment fees adds up over time, especially over the long run. Say an investor paid 1% in fees, and had an after-fee return of 9%. If they had a $100 starting investment, contributed monthly over a 25-year time span, their portfolio would be worth over $102,000 at the end of the period.

By comparison, a 10% return would have made over $119,000. In other words, they lost roughly $17,000 on their investment because of fees.

Another important factor to keep in mind is inflation. In order to preserve the value of your portfolio, its important to choose investments that beat inflation, which has historically averaged around 3.3%.

For perspective, since 1974 the S&P 500 has returned 12.5% on average annually (including reinvested dividends), 10-Year U.S. Treasury bonds have returned 6.6%, while real estate has averaged 5.6%. As we can see, each of these have outperformed inflation over longer horizons, with varying degrees of risk and return.

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Markets in a Minute

What Were the Top Performing Investment Themes of 2023?

In 2023, several investment themes outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. Here are the top performers—from blockchain to AI.

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The Top Performing Investment Themes in 2023

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

While the S&P 500 rebounded over 24% in 2023, many investment themes soared even higher.

In many ways, the year was defined by breakthrough announcements in AI and the resurgence of Bitcoin. At the same time, investors looked to nuclear energy ETFs thanks to nuclear’s growing role as a low carbon energy source and the war in Ukraine.

This graphic shows the best performing investment themes last year, based on data from Trackinsight.

Blockchain ETFs Lead the Pack

With 82% returns, blockchain ETFs outperformed all other themes in the U.S. due to the sharp rise in the bitcoin price over the year.

These ETFs hold mainly bitcoin mining firms, since ETFs investing directly in bitcoin were not yet approved by regulators in 2023. However, as of January 2024, U.S. regulators have approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs for trading, which drew in $10 billion in assets in their first 20 days alone.

Below, we show the top performing themes across U.S. ETFs in 2023:

Theme2023 Performance
Blockchain82%
Next Generation Internet80%
Metaverse59%
FinTech54%
Nuclear Energy50%
Cloud Computing49%
AI/Big Data49%
Gig Economy48%
Digital Infrastructure & Connectivity43%

As we can see, next generation internet ETFs—which include companies focused on the internet of things and new payment methods—also boomed.

Meanwhile, nuclear energy ETFs had a banner year as uranium prices hit 15-year highs. Investor optimism for nuclear power is part of a wider trend of reactivating nuclear power plants globally in the push towards decarbonizing the energy supply. In fact, 63 new reactors across countries including Japan, Türkiye, and China are planned for construction amid higher global demand.

With 49% returns, AI and big data ETFs were another top performing investment theme. Driving these returns were companies like chipmaker Nvidia, whose share price jumped by 239% in 2023 thanks to its technology being fundamental to powering AI models.

Top Investment Themes, by Net Flows

Here are the the investment themes that saw the highest net flows over the year:

Theme2023 Net Flows
Robotics & Automation$1,303M
Nuclear Energy$997M
AI/Big Data$987M
Global Infrastructure$734M
Net Zero 2050$716M
Blockchain$357M
Cannabis & Psychedelics$270M
Emerging Markets Consumer Growth$203M

Overall, ETFs focused on robotics and automation saw the greatest net flows amid wider deployment of these technologies across factories, healthcare, and transportation actvities.

The success of AI large language models over the year is another key factor in powering robotics capabilities. For instance, Microsoft is planning to build a robot powered by ChatGPT that provides it with higher context awareness of certain tasks.

Like robotics and automation, AI and big data, along with blockchain ETFs attracted high inflows.

Interestingly, ETFs surrounding emerging markets consumer growth saw strong inflows thanks to an expanding middle class across countries like India and China spurring potential growth opportunities. In 2024, 113 million people are projected to join the global middle class, seen mainly across countries in Asia.

Will Current Trends Continue in 2024?

So far, many of these investment themes have continued to see positive momentum including blockchain and next generation internet ETFs.

In many cases, these investment themes cover broad, underlying trends that have the potential to reshape sectors and industries. Going further, select investment themes have often defined each decade thanks to factors like technological disruption, geopolitics, and the economic environment.

While several factors could impact their performance—such as a global downturn or a second wave of inflation—it remains to be seen if investor demand will carry through the year and beyond.

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