Markets in a Minute
How Rising Treasury Yields Impact Your Portfolio
This infographic is available as a poster.
This infographic is available as a poster.
How Rising Treasury Yields Impact Your Portfolio
Since the start of 2021, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has climbed to pre-pandemic levels. But what exactly does this mean, and how could it impact your portfolio?
In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we explain why Treasury yields are important and which investments may go up or down when yields are rising.
What are Treasury Yields?
Treasury yields are the total amount of money you earn from U.S. debt securities, such as bonds and T-bills. Yields depend on both the security’s price, relative to its face value, and its “coupon” or interest payment.
The 10-year yield is important because it is closely-watched indication of market sentiment. Here’s what leads to changing Treasury yields:
- When investors expect the market to drop, they look for safer investments.
- Due to higher bond demand, prices rise.
- This lowers their yield, as bonds become more expensive than they were before.
The opposite occurs when the market is bullish.
- When investors expect the market to rise, they look for riskier investments.
- Due to less bond demand, prices drop.
- This raises their yield, as bonds become more cost effective.
Currently, Treasury yields are in the latter scenario because investors are confident in a sustained recovery as vaccines are rolled out and the economy reopens.
Investments That May Go Up During Rising Yields
Rising yields can have a number of knock-on effects in the market. Here are the investments that could increase in value when yields are going up.
| Investment | Why could returns potentially increase? |
|---|---|
| U.S. dollar | Rising yields attract income-seeking investors, who must purchase U.S. debt in U.S. dollars |
| Savings accounts | If the economy is growing at a rate that may lead to hyperinflation, the central bank may raise interest rates |
| REITs | While rising rates pose challenges, economic growth typically translates into a higher level of real estate demand |
| Cyclical stocks | Stocks that move with the economy, like banks, tend to do well during economic recoveries |
Cyclical stocks, such as banks, travel, and energy, may all benefit from an economic recovery. This is particularly true for banks if the economy is growing at a rate that exceeds inflation targets, as the central bank may raise interest rates. In turn, this allows banks to earn a higher profit margin because they can charge a higher rate on their loans.
While it is commonly said that real estate investment trusts (REITs) underperform during rising interest rates, the data tells a different story. In four of six periods of sustained rising yields, REITs earned positive returns—and they outperformed stocks in half of them.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
Rising rates do pose challenges, including higher borrowing costs and lower property values.
However, it’s evident that rising rates also have a positive influence on REITs. For instance, rising rates are typically associated with economic growth, which translates to higher real estate demand and higher occupancy rates. This means REITs can see increased earnings and dividends.
Investments That May Go Down During Rising Yields
On the flip side, there are some investments that could decrease in value when yields climb.
| Investment | Why could returns potentially decrease? |
|---|---|
| Bonds | To remain competitive, newly issued bonds offer higher interest rates—making existing bonds less attractive |
| Dividend-paying stocks | Rising rates give an edge to newly issued bonds, creating a historically safer alternative for income-seeking investors |
| Gold | As a safe haven asset, gold is less desirable during market optimism |
| Some growth stocks | Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive, which may slow company growth |
Existing bonds will likely see declining performance, with higher volatility among long-term government and corporate bonds. Short-term bonds typically see smaller drops. This is because they have less interest rate risk: there’s a smaller probability that interest rates will rise before a short-term bond’s maturity, and they have fewer interest payments that could be affected by rising rates.
Growth stocks, such as those in the technology sector, may also see weaker performance. In fact, value stocks have been outperforming growth stocks since the fourth quarter of 2020, a significant shift from growth’s strong historical performance in recent years.
U.S. Treasury Yields: One Part of the Picture
In addition to being a barometer for investor confidence, Treasury yields can have an important impact on your portfolio.
However, investment performance can vary depending on a number of other economic factors such as inflation and interest rate levels. For example, climbing inflation could lead to higher gold prices, since gold is seen as an inflationary hedge. You may want to consider the full economic picture when you are reviewing your portfolio.
Markets in a Minute
Infrastructure Megatrends: The Clean Energy Transition
Governments are keen to make the transition to clean energy, but what will it take to get there? In this chart, we examine two scenarios through 2050.
Infrastructure Megatrends: The Clean Energy Transition
Demand for clean energy is ramping up as a majority of countries target 2050 as the year to achieve net-zero emissions. But how much will this all cost?
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), upwards of $100 trillion is needed to build a system capable of keeping global temperatures from rising above 2C° (3.6F°).
In this Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments, we take a closer look at the outcomes of such a massive endeavor.
Investment Required to Reshape Global Energy Markets
The IRENA believes there are two scenarios for how the clean energy transition plays out by 2050.
Their first scenario involves a total investment of $95 trillion (112% of global GDP in 2020) and is based on current policies and targets. Despite the lofty amount, this scenario is expected to fall short in achieving the goals set by the Paris Agreement.
Their second scenario involves a more ambitious set of targets, as well as a 16% larger investment of $110 trillion. Thanks to economies of scale, this scenario will reduce carbon emissions much further and keep the global temperature rise below 2C° (3.6F°).
The estimates behind these two scenarios are outlined in the table below.
| Current Situation | Scenario 1 ($95T in investment) | Scenario 2 ($110T in investment) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renewable Share in Electricity Generation | 26% | 55% | 86% |
| Electrification Share of Final Energy | 20% | 30% | 49% |
| Energy-Related CO2 Emissions (gigatonnes) | 34gt | 33gt | 9.5gt |
How Do We Get There?
For scenario 2 to become reality, significant changes would need to be made across the entire economy.
For starters, the IRENA estimates that 1.1 billion electric vehicles will be on the road by 2050, up from 8 million in 2019. The resulting need for charging infrastructure is reflected by Scenario 2’s higher share of electrification (49% vs 30%).
Government subsidies around the world would also need to be adjusted, with much less money flowing to fossil fuels. The chart below provides a roadmap for these adjustments—on the left is the dollar value of subsidies, and on the right is each segment’s share of the total.
Fossil fuel subsidies in the U.S. are facilitated through tax cuts, and are estimated to be worth around $20 billion per year. This may change very soon, as the Biden administration has signaled its intention to eliminate these subsidies as part of its 2021 tax plan.
With Great Change Comes Great Opportunity
The demand for clean energy is expected to kick-off a monumental transformation of the world’s infrastructure.
For investors, gaining exposure to this megatrend may combine attractive return potential with positive environmental impact. In fact, many listed companies in the utilities sector are establishing themselves as leaders in this regard.
Consider Enel, an Italian multinational with activities in Europe and the U.S. The firm has directed capital towards renewable energy since 2015 and is now the world’s largest player in renewables with 46GW of installed capacity across solar, wind, and hydro.
Further developments are planned, and Enel expects to grow its earnings (represented by EBITDA) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%-6% over the next decade.
To learn more about the opportunities surrounding clean energy, consider this infographic on the global sustainable recovery.
Markets in a Minute
Can Foreign Currencies Act as an Inflation Hedge?
To determine if foreign currencies were a good inflation hedge, we looked at their performance relative to U.S. inflation over the last four decades.
This infographic is available as a poster.
Can Foreign Currencies Act as an Inflation Hedge?
Inflation is like corrosion. Initially, it can make investment returns less attractive. Over time, it can significantly eat away at an investment’s value. For U.S. investors looking for an inflation hedge, holding foreign currencies may be one option.
But just how effective are they at managing inflation risk? In this Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments, we look at how the performance of foreign currencies compared to U.S. inflation rates over the last four decades.
How to Hedge Against Inflation
Inflation reduces the value of a dollar over time. To manage this risk, investors look for returns that are higher than the inflation rate. For example, a currency that appreciates 6% during 2% inflation may be considered a relatively good inflation hedge.
What makes a currency appreciate? A currency will perform well against the U.S. dollar if investors consider the issuing economy to be strong. This is because foreign investors will look to purchase investments in the applicable currency, driving up its demand.
Foreign Currency Appreciation vs. U.S. Inflation
Here is how the four largest non-U.S. reserve currencies have performed from 1981-2020. We measured a foreign currency’s appreciation against the U.S. dollar using annual exchange rates. U.S. inflation was measured by the percentage change in the average consumer price index for all urban consumers. Neither metric was seasonally adjusted.
| Year | Average U.S. Inflation | European euro | Chinese yuan | Japanese yen | British pound |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2019 | 1.8% | -5.6% | -4.5% | 1.3% | -4.7% |
| 2018 | 2.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.5% |
| 2017 | 2.1% | 2.0% | -1.8% | -3.2% | -5.2% |
| 2016 | 1.3% | -0.2% | -5.7% | 10.2% | -12.8% |
| 2015 | 0.1% | -19.8% | -2.0% | -14.5% | -7.9% |
| 2014 | 1.6% | 0.1% | -0.2% | -8.3% | 5.1% |
| 2013 | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | -22.3% | -1.4% |
| 2012 | 2.1% | -8.3% | 2.4% | -0.2% | -1.2% |
| 2011 | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 9.2% | 3.7% |
| 2010 | 1.6% | -5.1% | 0.9% | 6.3% | -1.4% |
| 2009 | -0.3% | -5.7% | 1.7% | 9.4% | -18.4% |
| 2008 | 3.8% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% | -8.0% |
| 2007 | 2.9% | 8.4% | 4.6% | -1.3% | 7.9% |
| 2006 | 3.2% | 0.9% | 2.7% | -5.6% | 1.3% |
| 2005 | 3.4% | 0.1% | 1.0% | -1.8% | -0.7% |
| 2004 | 2.7% | 9.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 10.8% |
| 2003 | 2.3% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% |
| 2002 | 1.6% | 5.3% | 0.0% | -3.0% | 4.2% |
| 2001 | 2.8% | -3.1% | 0.0% | -12.8% | -5.3% |
| 2000 | 3.4% | -15.4% | 0.0% | 5.2% | -6.7% |
| 1999 | 2.2% | N/A | 0.3% | 13.2% | -2.5% |
| 1998 | 1.5% | N/A | 0.2% | -8.2% | 1.2% |
| 1997 | 2.3% | N/A | 0.2% | -11.3% | 4.7% |
| 1996 | 2.9% | N/A | 0.4% | -15.8% | -1.1% |
| 1995 | 2.8% | N/A | 3.1% | 8.0% | 3.0% |
| 1994 | 2.6% | N/A | -49.5% | 8.0% | 2.0% |
| 1993 | 3.0% | N/A | -4.7% | 12.4% | -17.6% |
| 1992 | 3.0% | N/A | -3.5% | 5.8% | -0.1% |
| 1991 | 4.2% | N/A | -11.3% | 7.2% | -0.9% |
| 1990 | 5.4% | N/A | -27.2% | -5.0% | 8.2% |
| 1989 | 4.8% | N/A | -1.0% | -7.7% | -8.7% |
| 1988 | 4.1% | N/A | 0.0% | 11.4% | 7.9% |
| 1987 | 3.6% | N/A | -7.8% | 14.1% | 10.5% |
| 1986 | 1.9% | N/A | -17.6% | 29.4% | 11.6% |
| 1985 | 3.5% | N/A | -26.3% | -0.4% | -3.0% |
| 1984 | 4.4% | N/A | -17.6% | 0.0% | -13.4% |
| 1983 | 3.2% | N/A | -4.4% | 4.6% | -15.3% |
| 1982 | 6.2% | N/A | -11.0% | -12.9% | -15.8% |
| 1981 | 10.4% | N/A | -- | 2.7% | -14.8% |
Note: The euro was created in 1999, which is why annual appreciation data against the U.S. dollar is not applicable prior to 2000. The Chinese yuan / U.S. dollar foreign exchange rate was not available for 1980, which is why annual appreciation for 1981 is unavailable.
The Best and Worst Inflation Hedges, Historically
Based on available data, here is the percentage of time each currency’s annual appreciation was greater than the U.S. inflation rate.
| European euro | Chinese yuan | Japanese yen | British pound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 18% | 48% | 33% |
The Japanese yen acted as the best inflation hedge, with its annual appreciation beating U.S. inflation 48% of the time. Demand for the safe haven currency has historically been strong for three main reasons:
- After the Japanese banking crisis of the late 1990s, the government introduced a number of policy measures. This helped Japan enter the global financial crisis with a relatively stable banking system.
- Japan is the largest creditor nation, meaning the value of foreign assets held by Japanese investors is higher than the value of Japanese assets owned by foreign investors. In times of market uncertainty, the money of Japanese investors tends to return home—driving up demand for the yen.
- To take advantage of near-zero interest rates in Japan, investors conduct “carry trades” where they borrow funds in Japan and lend or invest in countries where returns are higher. During turbulent markets, investors may unwind these trades, furthering demand for the yen.
The Chinese yuan has been the worst inflation hedge, with the yuan’s appreciation beating U.S. inflation only 18% of the time since 1982. This is perhaps not surprising, given that the yuan was pegged against the U.S. dollar in 1994 to keep the yuan low and make China’s exports competitive.
In 2005, China moved to a “managed float” system where the price of the yuan is allowed to fluctuate in a narrow band relative to a basket of foreign currencies. This shift led to the yuan appreciating against the U.S. dollar in some years.
The Risks of Currency as an Inflation Hedge
As the chart makes clear, investing in foreign currencies can be very volatile. Not only can currency depreciation lead to losses, there are additional factors for investors to consider such as geopolitical risks.
Of course, the effectiveness of foreign currencies as an inflation hedge depends on their attractiveness relative to the U.S. dollar. If a country is also affected by the factors causing U.S. inflation—such as an increase in the money supply—its currency could be negatively affected.
Given the uncertainties associated with this strategy, investors may want to consider foreign currencies alongside other asset classes to help manage inflation risk.
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