This infographic is available as a poster.

Charting Unemployment and Recessions Over 70 Years

As of August 2022, the U.S. unemployment rate sits at 3.7%, below its 74-year average of 5.5%.

Why does this matter today? Employment factors heavily into whether economists determine the country is in a recession. In fact, in the last several decades, employment-related factors have some of the heaviest weightings when a recession determination is made.

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we look at unemployment and recessions since 1948.

Why Is the Unemployment Rate Important?

To start, let’s look at how unemployment affects the economy.

During low unemployment and a strong labor market, wages often increase. This is a central concern to the Federal Reserve as higher wages could spur more spending and notch up inflation.

To curb inflation, the central bank may increase interest rates. As the economy begins to feel the effects of rising interest rates, it may fall into a recession as the cost of capital increases and consumer spending slows.

Who Determines It’s a Recession?

A committee of eight economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in Massachusetts make the call, although often several months after a recession has happened. As a result, employment data often acts as a lagging indicator.

This committee of academics looks at a number of variables beyond two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Other factors include:

• Nonfarm payroll employment
• Real personal income less transfers
• Real personal consumption expenditures
• Industrial production
• Wholesale retail sales adjusted for price changes
• Real GDP

A widespread decline in economic activity across the economy, as opposed to just one sector, is also considered.

Unemployment and Recessions Over History

Over the last 12 business cycles, the unemployment rate averaged 4.7% at the peak and 8.1% during the trough. The below table shows how the unemployment rate changed over various U.S. business cycles, with data from NBER:

In 1953, following post-WWII expansion, the unemployment rate fell to 2.6%, near record lows.

During this time, the economy faced strong consumer demand and high inflation after a period of prolonged low interest rates. To combat price pressures, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates in 1954, and the economy fell into recession. By May 1954, the unemployment rate more than doubled.

In 1981, the unemployment rate was high during both the peak of the cycle (7.2%) and the trough (10.8%) by late 1982. This marked the end of the 1970s stagflationary era, characterized by slow growth and high unemployment.

More recently, at the peak of the business cycle in 2020 the unemployment rate stood at 3.5%, closer to levels seen today.

Unemployment Today: A Double-Edged Sword

As of July 2022, the number of job vacancies is at 11.2 million, near record highs.

To reign in the inflationary pressures of the current job market—which saw year-over-year wage increases of 5.2% in both July and August—the Federal Reserve may take a more aggressive stance on interest rate hikes.

The good news is that labor force participation is increasing. As of August, labor force participation was within 1% of pre-pandemic levels, offering relief to the labor market supply. Higher labor force participation could lessen wage growth without unemployment levels having to rise. Since more people are competing for jobs, there is less leverage for salary negotiation.

Going further, one study shows that since the Great Financial Crisis, labor market participation has had a greater influence on wage growth than unemployment levels or job openings.

Against these opposing forces of higher job vacancies and higher labor market participation, the outlook for unemployment, along with its wider effects on the economy, remain unclear.

This infographic is available as a poster.

Visualizing the Real Estate Investment Universe

From residential property to data centers, real estate investment covers many different sectors.

While office, retail, and residential properties may come to mind first, the investment landscape extends to property types like health care and infrastructure—two sectors that were booming in 2021 as demand for laboratory space increased and facilities underpinning the digital economy expanded.

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we show the scope of U.S. publicly listed real estate investment trusts (REITs) by sector.

How Do REITs Work?

Most often, REITs are publicly-listed investments on a stock exchange. These investment vehicles manage income-producing properties and provide investors exposure to the real estate industry both through the price appreciation of property assets and the income earned through mortgages or leases.

By law, roughly 90% of this taxable income must be distributed to stockholders in dividends.

For instance, an office REIT may own a number of skyscrapers and office buildings that collect leases from tenants. This income from tenants—such as Salesforce or Amazon—would then be distributed to shareholders of the office REIT.

Today, U.S. publicly-listed REITs own 503,000 properties across the country valued at $2.0 trillion.

What are the Different Types of Real Estate Investment?

U.S. listed REITs fall into roughly 17 categories, according to data from Nareit.

Below, we will show each sector based on their earnings in the first quarter of 2022 as measured by funds from operations (FFO). FFO looks at cash flow earned from operations and is considered a broad performance indicator for the industry.

*Measured by Funds From Operations (FFO).
**Specialty includes gaming, outdoor advertising, farmland, and other non-traditional REIT property types. Data as of Q1 2022.

Despite thousands of storefronts being shut down during COVID-19, retail earnings remained the largest across all sectors, at $3.5 billion. In fact, earnings bounced back to pre-pandemic levels during the first quarter of 2022.

As the second largest sector, infrastructure saw $2.7 billion in earnings, rising over 47% compared to the first quarter of 2021. Infrastructure includes wireless infrastructure, fiber cables, and energy pipelines.

Residential, at $2.4 billion, is the third largest sector. Like retail, earnings have exceeded pre-pandemic levels, rising over 19% since the end of 2019.

Overall, real estate investment earnings hit a record $18 billion, driven by sectors hit hardest by the pandemic.

Key Characteristics of Real Estate Investments

Thanks to long-term leases—often between 5 and 10 years—REITs provide stable dividend earnings to investors. In 2021, the average dividend yield of U.S. REITs was 2.6%, more than double the yield of the S&P 500 at 1.2%.

In addition, they are often well-positioned during inflationary environments. As the below table shows, during periods of high inflation REITs average annualized returns were 16%. Even better, REIT earnings increased as inflation levels continued to rise.

Source: Morningstar (Jun 2021). REIT returns represented by the FTSE Nareit Equity REITs Index from Jan 30, 1976 to Jun 30, 2021.

While REITs are often positively correlated with inflation, they often have a low correlation with equities. For this reason, they can serve as a key diversifier when markets take a turn for the worse, potentially reducing the risk profile of your portfolio.

Due to the combination of these factors, real estate investments have proven resilient, with many REITS paying higher dividends than other forms of investments.