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Markets in a Minute

Mapped: The Growth in U.S. House Prices by State



Growth in US home price by state Part 1 of 3
Growth in US home price by state 2 of 3
Historical Mortgage Rates vs Housing Prices Part 3 of 3

How to use: Arrows on side of slides navigate between 1-year growth, 5-year growth, and growth since 1991.

U.S. map with states colored according to the growth in house prices from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022. Florida had the highest growth.
U.S. map with states colored according to the growth in house prices from Q1 2017 to Q1 2022. Idaho had the highest growth.
U.S. map with states colored according to the growth in house prices from Q1 1991 to Q1 2022. Utah had the highest growth.
House_Prices Growth Since 1991
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U.S. map with states colored according to the growth in house prices from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022.

This infographic is available as a poster.

The Growth in U.S. House Prices by State

On average, the U.S. housing market has seen price appreciation of 4.4% annually since 1991. High demand and low supply have accelerated price growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, single-family house prices grew by 18.7% from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022—the highest growth seen in at least 31 years.

This Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, the first in a three-part series on house prices, shows how house price growth has differed by state over various timeframes.

How Is House Price Growth Measured?

We used data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) House Price Index. The index measures changes in single-family home values and is seasonally adjusted. It is also a repeat-sales index, meaning it measures average price changes in repeat sales on the same properties.

FHFA obtains this information by reviewing repeat mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Short and Long-Term Growth in House Prices

The below table shows house price growth over the last year, last five years, and since the first quarter of 1991. It should be noted that the growth measures up to March 2022, based on the latest available data. As of March 2022, higher mortgage rates had not yet translated into slower price growth.

State/District1-Year Rank 1-Year Growth
5-Year Growth
Growth Since Q1 1991
North Carolina823.4%72.8%268.4%
South Carolina1022.7%67.0%263.0%
New Hampshire1521.2%66.7%285.3%
South Dakota2018.3%56.7%326.8%
Rhode Island2716.7%61.2%236.1%
New Jersey3515.1%50.8%231.0%
New Mexico3615.0%52.1%242.8%
West Virginia3714.8%38.3%181.7%
New York4114.4%50.3%233.1%
North Dakota5010.4%26.2%280.6%

Over the last year, the growth in prices was highest in Florida. Close to a thousand people move to Florida every day, and some snowbirds have decided to make Florida their permanent home.

Arizona follows closely behind, with one-year house price growth reaching 27.5%. Houses are not being built fast enough to meet demand. While Phoenix and the surrounding areas have plenty of single-family homes, there is little high-density housing due to zoning restrictions.

If we take a longer view, house prices have grown the fastest in the West since 1991. Utah saw the highest growth of 599.2%. The state’s population has gotten three times larger over the last 50 years, due to both migration and a high fertility rate. Some are drawn by high tech opportunities that earned the state the nickname “Silicon Slopes”.

Of course, the above data has limitations in that it is across entire states. The FHFA also shares the metro areas with the highest house price growth over the last year. In line with state growth, the top four areas are all in Florida. However, number five on the list is Knoxville, Tennessee. The price growth is partly due to a supply shortage. Knox County had 1,332 active listings in 2019, and just 324 listings by the end of 2021.

The Factors Driving the Growth in House Prices

While home price growth has accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply-demand imbalance has been building over time.

The U.S. built 276,000 fewer homes annually between 2000-2020 compared to the 30 years prior. Zoning restrictions in some areas have also limited the number of housing units that can be built on a parcel of land. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, roughly 64% of all authorized housing has been single-family homes. Ultimately, the lack of housing has helped drive up prices.

The magnitude of the price gain depends on where a homeowner had purchased. Historically, the growth in real estate prices has been highest in areas with strong job prospects, high population growth, and low housing supply.

In the second part of the house price series, we’ll explore the relationship between house prices and inflation.

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Markets in a Minute

What is the Success Rate of Actively Managed Funds?

For actively managed funds, the odds of beating the market over the long run are like finding a needle in a haystack.



Actively Managed Funds

What is the Success Rate of Actively Managed Funds?

Over a 20-year period, 95% of large-cap actively managed funds have underperformed their benchmark.

The above graphic shows the performance of actively managed funds across a range of fund types, using data from S&P Global via Charlie Bilello.

Missing the Mark: Actively Managed Funds

Several factors present headwinds to actively managed funds.

  • Trading costs: First, fund managers will trade more often than passive funds. These in turn incur costs, impacting returns.
  • Cash holdings: Additionally, many of these funds hold a cash allocation of about 5% or more to capture market opportunities. Unlike active funds, their passive counterparts are often fully invested. Cash holdings can have the opposite effect than intended—dragging on overall returns.
  • Fees: Active funds can charge up to 1-2% in investment manager fees while funds that tracked an index passively charged just 0.12% on average in 2022. These additional costs add up over time.

Below, we show how active funds increasingly underperform against their benchmark over each time period.

Fund Type1 Year
% Underperformed
5 Year
% Underperformed
10 Year
% Underperformed
20 Year
% Underperformed
All Large-Cap 51879195
All Small-Cap 57718994
Large-Cap Growth 74869698
Large-Cap Value 59698587
Small-Cap Growth 80598597
Small-Cap Value 41819192
Real Estate 88627487

As we can see, 51% of all large-cap active mutual funds underperformed in a one-year period. That compares to 41% of small-cap value funds, which had the best chance of outperforming the benchmark annually. Also, an eye-opening 88% of real estate funds underperformed.

For context, Warren Buffett’s firm Berkshire Hathaway has beat the S&P 500 two-thirds of the time. Even the world’s top stock pickers have a hard time beating the market’s returns.

2020 Market Crash: A Case Study

How about active funds’ performance during a crisis?

While the case for actively managed funds is often stronger during a market downturn, a 2020 study shows how they continued to underperform the index.

Overall, 74% of over 3,600 active funds with $4.9 trillion in assets did worse than the S&P 500 during the 2020 market plunge.

Stage of 2020 CycleTime Period% Underperforming S&P 500
CrisisFeb 20 - Apr 30, 202074.2
CrashFeb 20 - Mar 23, 202063.5
RecoveryMar 24 - Apr 30, 202055.8
Pre-CrisisOct 1 2019 - Jan 31, 202067.1

Source: NBER

In better news, roughly half underperformed through the recovery, the best out of any market condition that was studied.

The Bigger Impact

Of course, some actively managed funds outperform.

Still, choosing the top funds year after year can be challenging. Also note that active fund managers typically only run a portfolio for four and a half years on average before someone new takes over, making it difficult to stick with a star manager for very long.

As lower returns accumulate over time, the impact of investing in active mutual funds can be striking. If an investor had a $100,000 portfolio and paid 2% in costs every year for 25 years, they would lose about $170,000 to fees if it earned 6% annually.

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Markets in a Minute

Ranked: The Largest Bond Markets in the World

The global bond market stands at $133 trillion in value. Here are the major players in bond markets worldwide.



The Largest Bond Markets in the World

The Largest Bond Markets in the World

In 2022, the global bond market totaled $133 trillion.

As one of the world’s largest capital markets, debt securities have grown sevenfold over the last 40 years. Fueling this growth are government and corporate debt sales across major economies and emerging markets. Over the last three years, China’s bond market has grown 13% annually.

Based on estimates from the Bank for International Statements, this graphic shows the largest bond markets in the world.

ℹ️ Total debt numbers here include both domestic and international debt securities in each particular country or region. BIS notes that international debt securities are issued outside the local market of the country where the borrower resides and cover eurobonds as well as foreign bonds, but exclude negotiable loans.

Ranked: The World’s Top Bond Markets

Valued at over $51 trillion, the U.S. has the largest bond market globally.

Government bonds made up the majority of its debt market, with over $26 trillion in securities outstanding. In 2022, the Federal government paid $534 billion in interest on this debt.

China is second, at 16% of the global total. Local commercial banks hold the greatest share of its outstanding bonds, while foreign ownership remains fairly low. Foreign interest in China’s bonds slowed in 2022 amid geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and lower yields.

Bond Market RankCountry / RegionTotal Debt OutstandingShare of Total Bond Market
1🇺🇸 U.S.$51.3T39%
2🇨🇳 China$20.9T16%
3🇯🇵 Japan$11.0T8%
4🇫🇷 France$4.4T3%
5🇬🇧 United Kingdom$4.3T3%
6🇨🇦 Canada$4.0T3%
7🇩🇪 Germany$3.7T3%
8🇮🇹 Italy$2.9T2%
9🇰🇾 Cayman Islands*$2.7T2%
10🇧🇷 Brazil*$2.4T2%
11🇰🇷 South Korea*$2.2T2%
12🇦🇺 Australia$2.2T2%
13🇳🇱 Netherlands$1.9T1%
14🇪🇸 Spain$1.9T1%
15🇮🇳 India*$1.3T1%
16🇮🇪 Ireland$1.0T1%
17🇲🇽 Mexico*$1.0T1%
18🇱🇺 Luxembourg$0.9T1%
19🇧🇪 Belgium$0.7T>1%
20🇷🇺 Russia*$0.7T>1%

*Represent countries where total debt securities were not reported by national authorities. These figures are the sum of domestic debt securities reported by national authorities and/or international debt securities compiled by BIS.
Data as of Q3 2022.

As the above table shows, Japan has the third biggest debt market. Japan’s central bank owns a massive share of its government bonds. Central bank ownership hit a record 50% as it tweaked its yield curve control policy that was introduced in 2016. The policy was designed to help boost inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. As inflation began to rise in 2022 and bond investors began selling, it had to increase its yield to spur demand and liquidity. The adjustment sent shockwaves through financial markets.

In Europe, France is home to the largest bond market at $4.4 trillion in total debt, surpassing the United Kingdom by roughly $150 billion.

Banks: A Major Buyer in Bond Markets

Like central banks around the world, commercial banks are key players in bond markets.

In fact, commercial banks are among the top three buyers of U.S. government debt. This is because commercial banks will reinvest client deposits into interest-bearing securities. These often include U.S. Treasuries, which are highly liquid and one of the safest assets globally.

As we can see in the chart below, the banking sector often surpasses an economy’s total GDP.

Banking Sector

As interest rates have risen sharply since 2022, the price of bonds has been pushed down, given their inverse relationship. This has raised questions about what type of bonds banks hold.

In the U.S., commercial banks hold $4.2 trillion in Treasury bonds and other government securities. For large U.S. banks, these holdings account for almost 24% of assets on average. They make up an average 15% of assets for small banks in 2023. Since mid-2022, small banks have reduced their bond holdings due to interest rate increases.

As higher rates reverberate across the banking system and wider economy, it may expose further strains on global bond markets which have expanded rapidly in an era of dovish monetary policy and ultra-low interest rates.

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