Advertisement
Connect with us

Markets in a Minute

Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country

Published

on

The following slider shows both nominal and real housing prices by country. Use slider arrows to navigate.

The Growth in House Prices by Country
The Growth in House Prices by Country
MIAMHOUSING-NOMINAL
MIAMHOUSING-REAL
previous arrow
next arrow
The Growth in House Prices by Country

Mapped: The Growth in House Prices by Country

Global housing prices rose an average of 6% annually, between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022.

In real terms that take inflation into account, prices actually fell 2% for the first decline in 12 years. Despite a surge in interest rates and mortgage costs, housing markets were noticeably stable. Real prices remain 7% above pre-pandemic levels.

In this graphic, we show the change in residential property prices with data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The Growth in House Prices, Ranked

The following dataset from the BIS covers nominal and real house price growth across 58 countries and regions as of the fourth quarter of 2022:

Price Growth
Rank
Country /
Region
Nominal Year-over-Year
Change (%)
Real Year-over-Year
Change (%)
1๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Tรผrkiye167.951.0
2๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Serbia23.17.0
3๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russia23.19.7
4๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฐ North Macedonia20.61.0
5๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ธ Iceland20.39.9
6๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia17.33.6
7๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia16.9-3.0
8๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel16.811.0
9๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary16.5-5.1
10๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania16.0-5.5
11๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Slovenia15.44.2
12๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌ Bulgaria13.4-3.2
13๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท Greece12.23.7
14๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal11.31.3
15๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom10.0-0.7
16๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Slovak Republic9.7-4.8
17
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช United Arab Emirates
9.62.9
18๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland9.3-6.9
19๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia9.1-10.2
20๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore8.61.9
21๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช Ireland8.6-0.2
22๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile8.2-3.0
23๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan7.93.9
24๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico7.9-0.1
25๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ Philippines7.7-0.2
26๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States7.10.0
27๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czechia6.9-7.6
28๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Romania6.7-7.5
29๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡น Malta6.3-0.7
30๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ Cyprus6.3-2.9
31๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia6.3-5.6
32๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ Luxembourg5.6-0.5
33๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain5.5-1.1
34๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland5.42.4
35๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands5.4-5.3
36๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria5.2-4.8
37๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France4.8-1.2
38๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium4.7-5.7
39๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ Thailand4.7-1.1
40๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa3.1-4.0
41๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India2.8-3.1
42๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy2.8-8.0
43๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway2.6-3.8
44๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ Indonesia2.0-3.4
45๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru1.5-6.3
46๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia1.2-2.6
47๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea-0.1-5.0
48๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco-0.1-7.7
49๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil-0.1-5.8
50๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Finland-2.3-10.2
51๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Denmark-2.4-10.6
52๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia-3.2-10.2
53๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany-3.6-12.1
54๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden-3.7-13.7
55๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China-3.7-5.4
56๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada-3.8-9.8
57๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand-10.4-16.5
58๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong SAR-13.5-15.1

Tรผrkiyeโ€™s property prices jumped the highest globally, at nearly 168% amid soaring inflation.

Real estate demand has increased alongside declining interest rates. The government drastically cut interest rates from 19% in late 2021 to 8.5% to support a weakening economy.

Many European countries saw some of the highest price growth in nominal terms. A strong labor market and low interest rates pushed up prices, even as mortgage rates broadly doubled across the continent. For real price growth, most countries were in negative territoryโ€”notably Sweden, Germany, and Denmark.

Nominal U.S. housing prices grew just over 7%, while real price growth halted to 0%. Prices have remained elevated given the stubbornly low supply of inventory. In fact, residential prices remain 45% above pre-pandemic levels.

How Do Interest Rates Impact Property Markets?

Global house prices boomed during the pandemic as central banks cut interest rates to prop up economies.

Now, rates have returned to levels last seen before the Global Financial Crisis. On average, rates have increased four percentage points in many major economies. Roughly three-quarters of the countries in the BIS dataset witnessed negative year-over-year real house price growth as of the fourth quarter of 2022.

Interest rates have a large impact on property prices. Cross-country evidence shows that for every one percentage point increase in real interest rates, the growth rate of housing prices tends to fall by about two percentage points.

When Will Housing Prices Fall?

The rise in U.S. interest rates has been counteracted by homeowners being reluctant to sell so they can keep their low mortgage rates. As a result, it is keeping inventory low and prices high. Homeowners canโ€™t sell and keep their low mortgage rates unless they meet strict conditions on a new property.

Additionally, several other factors impact price dynamics. Construction costs, income growth, labor shortages, and population growth all play a role.

With a strong labor market continuing through 2023, stable incomes may help stave off prices from falling. On the other hand, buyers with floating-rate mortgages face steeper costs and may be unable to afford new rates. This could increase housing supply in the market, potentially leading to lower prices.

Advisor channel footer

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading
Comments

Markets in a Minute

The $109 Trillion Global Stock Market in One Chart

We show the entire global stock market in 2023, illustrating the dominance of U.S. markets. But as structural dynamics shift, will this last?

Published

on

The $109 Trillion Global Stock Market

The $109 Trillion Global Stock Market in One Chart

Global equity markets have nearly tripled in size since 2003, climbing to $109 trillion in total market capitalization.

Over the last several decades, the growth in money supply and ultra-low interest rates have underpinned rising asset values across economies.

Given this backdrop, the above graphic shows the size of the global stock market in 2023, based on data from the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA).

The Global Stock Market, by Share

With the worldโ€™s deepest capital markets, the U.S. makes up 42.5% of global equity market capitalization, outpacing the next closest economy, the European Union by a significant margin.

Here are the worldโ€™s major equity markets based on global market cap share as of Q2 2023:

Country / RegionMarket CapShare (%)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.$46.2T42.5%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ EU$12.1T11.1%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China$11.5T10.6%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan$5.8T5.4%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ Hong Kong$4.3T4.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง UK$3.2T2.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada$3.0T2.7%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia$1.7T1.5%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Singapore$0.6T0.6%
๐ŸŒ Rest of Developed Markets$10.2T9.4%
๐ŸŒ Rest of Emerging Markets$10.0T9.2%
Global Total$108.6T100.0%

Data as of Q2 2023. Numbers may not total 100 due to rounding..

Today, U.S. equity markets total over $46.2 trillion in market capitalization.

Compared to other rich nations, U.S. stocks have often outperformed over the last several decades. If an investor put $100 in the S&P 500 in 1990 this investment would have grown to about $2,000 in 2023, or four-fold the returns seen in other developed countries.

The second-largest equity market is the European Union at 11.1% of global share, followed by China, at 10.6%.

In the last 20 years, Chinaโ€™s economy has increased by roughly 12-fold, reaching $19.4 trillion this year. Chinaโ€™s equity markets have also grown considerably, fueled by the incorporation of Chinese domestic stocks into the MSCI Emerging Market Index in 2018, and earlier, with the internationalization of its equity markets in 2002.

Japanโ€™s equity markets account for 5.4% of the global share, followed by Hong Kong, at 4%.

The Future Investment Landscape

Goldman Sachs projects that U.S. equity market capitalization will fall to 35% of the overall global market by 2030.

Meanwhile, emerging markets, including China and India, are collectively forecast to reach the 35% mark in the same timeframe. By 2050, the EM share is anticipated to far surpass the U.S., rising to 47% of global stock markets.

Country / RegionGlobal Equity Market Share 2030Global Equity Market Share 2050
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S.34.7%26.9%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Euro Area8.3%7.9%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China14.1%15.0%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India4.1%8.3%
๐ŸŒ Rest of Developed Markets21.5%17.8%
๐ŸŒ Rest of Emerging Markets17.4%24.1%

Numbers may not total 100 due to rounding.

The first factor underscoring this shift is the rapid growth projected for emerging economies.

Historically, as GDP per capita grows, capital markets in an economy become more sophisticated. We can see this in richer countries, which tend to have higher equitization of their markets.

India is projected to rise the fastest globally. By 2030, it is projected to account for 4.1% of global equity market cap. Furthermore, by 2050, this share is projected to outrank the euro area due to strong GDP per capita growth and demographic drivers.

The second factor, although to a lesser extent, is emerging market rising valuation multiples driven by higher GDP per capita. Richer countries, as seen in the U.S., often trade at higher earnings multiples because they are viewed to have lower risk.

Implications for Investors

What does this mean from an investment standpoint?

While the U.S. has outperformed in recent decades, it may not mean that it will continue on this trend, according to Goldman Sachs. Given the structural shifts stemming from growing populations and GDP growth, investors may consider diversifying their portfolios geographically looking ahead.

Advisor channel footer

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading

Markets in a Minute

Charted: Market Volatility at its Lowest Point Since 2020

In 2023, market volatility has fallen dramatically. In this graphic, we show how it compares to historical trends.

Published

on

Market Volatility at its Lowest Point Since 2020

Market volatility has been remarkably low in 2023, apart from the brief shock following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this year.

In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)โ€”a primary gauge for measuring U.S. equity volatilityโ€”has fallen to lows not seen since before the pandemic.

This graphic shows how todayโ€™s market volatility compares to the last two decades, and the factors that may explain its steadiness, based on data from CBOE.

How is Market Volatility Measured?

The most widely used index to track market volatility is the VIX.

In short, it measures the marketโ€™s expectation for price changes in the S&P 500. When investor uncertainty is high, the VIX spikes. For this reason, it serves as a barometer of fear in the market and often has a negative correlation to returns. For instance, when the VIX hit a peak on March 16, 2020, the S&P 500 fell 12% in one day.

Market Volatility: All-Time Highs and Lows

To put todayโ€™s market volatility in context, here are the marketโ€™s peak periods of volatility, through highs and lows:

DateVIX All-Time HighsS&P 500 Daily % Change
Mar 16, 202082.7-12.0%
Nov 20, 200880.9-6.7%
Oct 27, 200880.1-3.2%
Oct 24, 200879.1-3.5%
Mar 3, 202076.5-2.8%

We can see in the above chart that the VIX skyrocketed in 2020 and 2008 at the height of recession fears.

By contrast market volatility hit all-time lows during 2017, when corporate profitability was high and the S&P 500 was in the middle of the second-longest bull run in history:

DateVIX All-Time LowsS&P 500 Daily % Change
Nov 3, 20179.1+0.3%
Jan 3, 20189.2+0.6%
Oct 5, 20179.2+0.6%
Jan 4, 20189.2+0.4%
Jan 5, 20189.2+0.7%

When investors have muted reactions to the marketโ€™s outlook, often market volatility is lowerโ€”reflecting mixed reactions to the market instead of a unanimous, surprise reaction to economic data or other factors that could sway investor behavior.

2023โ€™s Volatility in Context

In September, the VIX declined to 12.8, the lowest point since January 2020. Since then, it has hovered near these levels as investors scale back recession fears, and factor in the likelihood of the U.S. economy achieving a soft landing. To date, the S&P 500 is up almost 17%.

Many factors are influencing the marketโ€™s relative calmness. Inflation has been moderating, falling at 3.7% in August, down from a peak of 9.1% seen in June last year.

Labor market strength has also played a key role. The unemployment rate hovers near five-decade lows, and wage growth remains above historical averages at 4.3% annually as of August.

Despite 11 interest rate hikes since March 2022, consumer spending remains strong, although savings have declined considerably over the year. Household spending makes up roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP, a key driver of economic output.

Together, these factors, among others, are influencing investor sentiment. Some may argue that investors are complacent as economic data could be weakening, but so far the resilience of the economy is supporting lower market volatility.

Advisor channel footer

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading

Popular