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Mapped: GDP Growth by Country in 2021

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2021 GDP Recap Part 1 of 2
Future GDP Predictions Part 2 of 2

This infographic is available as a poster.

World map shaded according to GDP growth by country in 2021

World map shaded according to GDP growth by country in 2021

This infographic is available as a poster.

A Recap of GDP Growth by Country in 2021

The global economy faced numerous challenges in 2021. While COVID-19 vaccinations became more widely available in some countries, variants led to further waves in the pandemic. While consumer demand began to recover, supply chain disruptions restricted supply.

Despite these and other hurdles, the world economy expanded by 6.1% in 2021. In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we explore GDP growth by country to see which countries had the best and worst growth. It’s the first in a two-part series that explores GDP growth around the world.

What is the Base Effect?

Before diving into the data, it’s worth highlighting that 2021’s GDP growth numbers are impacted by the base effect. Whenever growth is shown over a time period, it is being compared to a “base” or starting value. If the base value is abnormally high or low, it can distort the growth figures.

In this case, the year-over-year growth is comparing growth from 2020 to 2021. Since the COVID-19 pandemic caused 2020 GDP growth to be negative in many countries, 2021 GDP growth is measured from a lower starting point. This can make percentage growth appear higher, though in many cases economies were simply recovering from the pandemic slump.

GDP Growth by Country

With this in mind, the table below shows real GDP growth by country in 2021, along with a comparison against 2020’s numbers.

Libya experienced the highest growth rate of 177.3%. The country moved toward ending its decade-long conflict, which resulted in a rebound of oil production and economic activity. Rising oil prices have also contributed to the country’s recovery, given the oil and gas sector accounts for 60% of Libya’s GDP. However, caution should be taken with this figure as there is considerable uncertainty against the backdrop of the civil war.

Country20202021
Afghanistan-2.4%n/a
Albania-3.5%8.5%
Algeria-4.9%4.0%
Andorra-11.2%8.9%
Angola-5.6%0.7%
Antigua and Barbuda-20.2%4.8%
Argentina-9.9%10.2%
Armenia-7.4%5.7%
Aruba-22.3%16.8%
Australia-2.2%4.7%
Austria-6.7%4.5%
Azerbaijan-4.3%5.6%
Bahrain-4.9%2.2%
Bangladesh3.5%5.0%
Barbados-13.7%1.4%
Belarus-0.7%2.3%
Belgium-5.7%6.3%
Belize-16.7%9.8%
Benin3.8%6.6%
Bhutan-2.4%-3.7%
Bolivia-8.7%6.1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina-3.1%5.8%
Botswana-8.7%12.5%
Brazil-3.9%4.6%
Brunei Darussalam1.1%-0.7%
Bulgaria-4.4%4.2%
Burkina Faso1.9%6.9%
Burundi0.3%2.4%
Cabo Verde-14.8%6.9%
Cambodia-3.1%2.2%
Cameroon0.5%3.5%
Canada-5.2%4.6%
Central African Republic1.0%1.0%
Chad-2.2%-1.1%
Chile-6.1%11.7%
China2.2%8.1%
Colombia-7.0%10.6%
Comoros-0.3%2.2%
Costa Rica-4.1%7.6%
Côte d'Ivoire2.0%6.5%
Croatia-8.1%10.4%
Cyprus-5.0%5.5%
Czech Republic-5.8%3.3%
Democratic Republic of the Congo1.7%5.7%
Denmark-2.1%4.1%
Djibouti1.0%4.0%
Dominica-11.0%3.7%
Dominican Republic-6.7%12.3%
Ecuador-7.8%4.2%
Egypt3.6%3.3%
El Salvador-7.9%10.3%
Equatorial Guinea-4.9%-3.5%
Eritrea-0.6%2.9%
Estonia-3.0%8.3%
Eswatini-1.9%3.1%
Ethiopia6.1%6.3%
Fiji-15.2%-4.0%
Finland-2.3%3.3%
France-8.0%7.0%
Gabon-1.9%0.9%
Georgia-6.8%10.4%
Germany-4.6%2.8%
Ghana0.4%4.2%
Greece-9.0%8.3%
Grenada-13.8%5.6%
Guatemala-1.5%8.0%
Guinea6.4%4.2%
Guinea-Bissau1.5%3.8%
Guyana43.5%19.9%
Haiti-3.3%-1.8%
Honduras-9.0%12.5%
Hong Kong SAR-6.5%6.4%
Hungary-4.7%7.1%
Iceland-7.1%4.3%
India-6.6%8.9%
Indonesia-2.1%3.7%
Iraq-15.7%5.9%
Ireland5.9%13.5%
Islamic Republic of Iran1.8%4.0%
Israel-2.2%8.2%
Italy-9.0%6.6%
Jamaica-10.0%4.4%
Japan-4.5%1.6%
Jordan-1.6%2.0%
Kazakhstan-2.6%4.0%
Kenya-0.3%7.2%
Kiribati-0.5%1.5%
Korea-0.9%4.0%
Kosovo-5.3%9.5%
Kuwait-8.9%1.3%
Kyrgyz Republic-8.6%3.7%
Lao P.D.R.-0.4%2.1%
Latvia-3.8%4.7%
Lebanon-22.0%n/a
Lesotho-6.0%2.1%
Liberia-3.0%4.2%
Libya-59.7%177.3%
Lithuania-0.1%4.9%
Luxembourg-1.8%6.9%
Macao SAR-54.0%18.0%
Madagascar-7.1%3.5%
Malawi0.9%2.2%
Malaysia-5.6%3.1%
Maldives-33.5%33.4%
Mali-1.2%3.1%
Malta-8.3%9.4%
Marshall Islands-2.4%-1.5%
Mauritania-1.8%3.0%
Mauritius-14.9%3.9%
Mexico-8.2%4.8%
Micronesia-1.8%-3.2%
Moldova-8.3%13.9%
Mongolia-4.6%1.4%
Montenegro-15.3%12.4%
Morocco-6.3%7.2%
Mozambique-1.2%2.2%
Myanmar3.2%-17.9%
Namibia-8.5%0.9%
Nauru0.7%1.6%
Nepal-2.1%2.7%
Netherlands-3.8%5.0%
New Zealand-2.1%5.6%
Nicaragua-2.0%10.3%
Niger3.6%1.3%
Nigeria-1.8%3.6%
North Macedonia-6.1%4.0%
Norway-0.7%3.9%
Oman-2.8%2.0%
Pakistan-1.0%5.6%
Palau-9.7%-17.1%
Panama-17.9%15.3%
Papua New Guinea-3.5%1.7%
Paraguay-0.8%4.2%
Peru-11.0%13.3%
Philippines-9.6%5.6%
Poland-2.5%5.7%
Portugal-8.4%4.9%
Puerto Rico-3.9%1.0%
Qatar-3.6%1.5%
Republic of Congo-8.1%-0.2%
Romania-3.7%5.9%
Russia-2.7%4.7%
Rwanda-3.4%10.2%
Samoa-2.6%-8.1%
San Marino-6.6%5.2%
São Tomé and Príncipe3.0%1.8%
Saudi Arabia-4.1%3.2%
Senegal1.3%6.1%
Serbia-0.9%7.4%
Seychelles-7.7%8.0%
Sierra Leone-2.0%3.2%
Singapore-4.1%7.6%
Slovak Republic-4.4%3.0%
Slovenia-4.2%8.1%
Solomon Islands-4.3%-0.2%
Somalia-0.3%2.0%
South Africa-6.4%4.9%
South Sudan-6.6%5.3%
Spain-10.8%5.1%
Sri Lanka-3.6%3.6%
St. Kitts and Nevis-14.0%-3.6%
St. Lucia-20.4%6.8%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines-5.3%-0.5%
Sudan-3.6%0.5%
Suriname-15.9%-3.5%
Sweden-2.9%4.8%
Switzerland-2.5%3.7%
Syrian/an/a
Taiwan Province of China3.4%6.3%
Tajikistan4.4%9.2%
Tanzania4.8%4.9%
Thailand-6.2%1.6%
The Bahamas-14.5%5.6%
The Gambia-0.2%5.6%
Timor-Leste-8.6%1.8%
Togo1.8%5.1%
Tonga0.7%-0.7%
Trinidad and Tobago-7.4%-1.0%
Tunisia-9.3%3.1%
Turkey1.8%11.0%
Turkmenistan-3.0%4.9%
Tuvalu1.0%2.5%
Uganda-1.4%5.1%
Ukraine-3.8%3.4%
United Arab Emirates-6.1%2.3%
United Kingdom-9.3%7.4%
United States-3.4%5.7%
Uruguay-6.1%4.4%
Uzbekistan1.9%7.4%
Vanuatu-5.4%0.5%
Venezuela-30.0%-1.5%
Vietnam2.9%2.6%
West Bank and Gaza-11.3%6.0%
Yemen-8.5%-2.0%
Zambia-2.8%4.3%
Zimbabwe-5.3%6.3%

Ireland experienced GDP growth of 13.5% in 2021, driven largely by record-high exports. The country is home to more than 1,500 multinationals, including some of the top tech and pharma companies, due to Ireland’s competitive tax rate. The size of some of these multinationals can result in bloated GDP figures.

In South America, Chile had one of the highest GDP growth rates of 11.7%. The economic recovery was driven by one of the fastest COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in the world, which allowed the economy to almost fully reopen. Household consumption also rose thanks to fiscal support from the government and people withdrawing money from their pensions.

Meanwhile U.S. economic growth was roughly on par with the global average at 5.7%. The reasons for growth were widespread, including an increase in consumer spending, business investment, exports, and new single family home construction.

Looking Ahead

Recovering from the pandemic shutdown, almost all countries saw positive GDP growth in 2021. Some of the strongest growth was seen in countries with fully reopened economies, in-demand exports, and strong fiscal and monetary support.

Now, the world faces a new host of issues including worsening inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war. Which countries are projected to fare the best amid these challenges?

In the second part of this series, we’ll dive into predictions for GDP growth by country in 2022 and beyond.

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Markets in a Minute

What is the Success Rate of Actively Managed Funds?

For actively managed funds, the odds of beating the market over the long run are like finding a needle in a haystack.

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Actively Managed Funds

What is the Success Rate of Actively Managed Funds?

Over a 20-year period, 95% of large-cap actively managed funds have underperformed their benchmark.

The above graphic shows the performance of actively managed funds across a range of fund types, using data from S&P Global via Charlie Bilello.

Missing the Mark: Actively Managed Funds

Several factors present headwinds to actively managed funds.

  • Trading costs: First, fund managers will trade more often than passive funds. These in turn incur costs, impacting returns.
  • Cash holdings: Additionally, many of these funds hold a cash allocation of about 5% or more to capture market opportunities. Unlike active funds, their passive counterparts are often fully invested. Cash holdings can have the opposite effect than intended—dragging on overall returns.
  • Fees: Active funds can charge up to 1-2% in investment manager fees while funds that tracked an index passively charged just 0.12% on average in 2022. These additional costs add up over time.

Below, we show how active funds increasingly underperform against their benchmark over each time period.

Fund Type1 Year
% Underperformed
5 Year
% Underperformed
10 Year
% Underperformed
20 Year
% Underperformed
All Large-Cap 51879195
All Small-Cap 57718994
Large-Cap Growth 74869698
Large-Cap Value 59698587
Small-Cap Growth 80598597
Small-Cap Value 41819192
Real Estate 88627487

As we can see, 51% of all large-cap active mutual funds underperformed in a one-year period. That compares to 41% of small-cap value funds, which had the best chance of outperforming the benchmark annually. Also, an eye-opening 88% of real estate funds underperformed.

For context, Warren Buffett’s firm Berkshire Hathaway has beat the S&P 500 two-thirds of the time. Even the world’s top stock pickers have a hard time beating the market’s returns.

2020 Market Crash: A Case Study

How about active funds’ performance during a crisis?

While the case for actively managed funds is often stronger during a market downturn, a 2020 study shows how they continued to underperform the index.

Overall, 74% of over 3,600 active funds with $4.9 trillion in assets did worse than the S&P 500 during the 2020 market plunge.

Stage of 2020 CycleTime Period% Underperforming S&P 500
CrisisFeb 20 - Apr 30, 202074.2
CrashFeb 20 - Mar 23, 202063.5
RecoveryMar 24 - Apr 30, 202055.8
Pre-CrisisOct 1 2019 - Jan 31, 202067.1

Source: NBER

In better news, roughly half underperformed through the recovery, the best out of any market condition that was studied.

The Bigger Impact

Of course, some actively managed funds outperform.

Still, choosing the top funds year after year can be challenging. Also note that active fund managers typically only run a portfolio for four and a half years on average before someone new takes over, making it difficult to stick with a star manager for very long.

As lower returns accumulate over time, the impact of investing in active mutual funds can be striking. If an investor had a $100,000 portfolio and paid 2% in costs every year for 25 years, they would lose about $170,000 to fees if it earned 6% annually.

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Markets in a Minute

Ranked: The Largest Bond Markets in the World

The global bond market stands at $133 trillion in value. Here are the major players in bond markets worldwide.

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The Largest Bond Markets in the World

The Largest Bond Markets in the World

In 2022, the global bond market totaled $133 trillion.

As one of the world’s largest capital markets, debt securities have grown sevenfold over the last 40 years. Fueling this growth are government and corporate debt sales across major economies and emerging markets. Over the last three years, China’s bond market has grown 13% annually.

Based on estimates from the Bank for International Statements, this graphic shows the largest bond markets in the world.

ℹ️ Total debt numbers here include both domestic and international debt securities in each particular country or region. BIS notes that international debt securities are issued outside the local market of the country where the borrower resides and cover eurobonds as well as foreign bonds, but exclude negotiable loans.

Ranked: The World’s Top Bond Markets

Valued at over $51 trillion, the U.S. has the largest bond market globally.

Government bonds made up the majority of its debt market, with over $26 trillion in securities outstanding. In 2022, the Federal government paid $534 billion in interest on this debt.

China is second, at 16% of the global total. Local commercial banks hold the greatest share of its outstanding bonds, while foreign ownership remains fairly low. Foreign interest in China’s bonds slowed in 2022 amid geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and lower yields.

Bond Market RankCountry / RegionTotal Debt OutstandingShare of Total Bond Market
1🇺🇸 U.S.$51.3T39%
2🇨🇳 China$20.9T16%
3🇯🇵 Japan$11.0T8%
4🇫🇷 France$4.4T3%
5🇬🇧 United Kingdom$4.3T3%
6🇨🇦 Canada$4.0T3%
7🇩🇪 Germany$3.7T3%
8🇮🇹 Italy$2.9T2%
9🇰🇾 Cayman Islands*$2.7T2%
10🇧🇷 Brazil*$2.4T2%
11🇰🇷 South Korea*$2.2T2%
12🇦🇺 Australia$2.2T2%
13🇳🇱 Netherlands$1.9T1%
14🇪🇸 Spain$1.9T1%
15🇮🇳 India*$1.3T1%
16🇮🇪 Ireland$1.0T1%
17🇲🇽 Mexico*$1.0T1%
18🇱🇺 Luxembourg$0.9T1%
19🇧🇪 Belgium$0.7T>1%
20🇷🇺 Russia*$0.7T>1%

*Represent countries where total debt securities were not reported by national authorities. These figures are the sum of domestic debt securities reported by national authorities and/or international debt securities compiled by BIS.
Data as of Q3 2022.

As the above table shows, Japan has the third biggest debt market. Japan’s central bank owns a massive share of its government bonds. Central bank ownership hit a record 50% as it tweaked its yield curve control policy that was introduced in 2016. The policy was designed to help boost inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. As inflation began to rise in 2022 and bond investors began selling, it had to increase its yield to spur demand and liquidity. The adjustment sent shockwaves through financial markets.

In Europe, France is home to the largest bond market at $4.4 trillion in total debt, surpassing the United Kingdom by roughly $150 billion.

Banks: A Major Buyer in Bond Markets

Like central banks around the world, commercial banks are key players in bond markets.

In fact, commercial banks are among the top three buyers of U.S. government debt. This is because commercial banks will reinvest client deposits into interest-bearing securities. These often include U.S. Treasuries, which are highly liquid and one of the safest assets globally.

As we can see in the chart below, the banking sector often surpasses an economy’s total GDP.

Banking Sector

As interest rates have risen sharply since 2022, the price of bonds has been pushed down, given their inverse relationship. This has raised questions about what type of bonds banks hold.

In the U.S., commercial banks hold $4.2 trillion in Treasury bonds and other government securities. For large U.S. banks, these holdings account for almost 24% of assets on average. They make up an average 15% of assets for small banks in 2023. Since mid-2022, small banks have reduced their bond holdings due to interest rate increases.

As higher rates reverberate across the banking system and wider economy, it may expose further strains on global bond markets which have expanded rapidly in an era of dovish monetary policy and ultra-low interest rates.

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