Markets in a Minute
Mapped: GDP Growth by Country in 2021
This infographic is available as a poster.
This infographic is available as a poster.
A Recap of GDP Growth by Country in 2021
The global economy faced numerous challenges in 2021. While COVID-19 vaccinations became more widely available in some countries, variants led to further waves in the pandemic. While consumer demand began to recover, supply chain disruptions restricted supply.
Despite these and other hurdles, the world economy expanded by 6.1% in 2021. In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we explore GDP growth by country to see which countries had the best and worst growth. It’s the first in a two-part series that explores GDP growth around the world.
What is the Base Effect?
Before diving into the data, it’s worth highlighting that 2021’s GDP growth numbers are impacted by the base effect. Whenever growth is shown over a time period, it is being compared to a “base” or starting value. If the base value is abnormally high or low, it can distort the growth figures.
In this case, the year-over-year growth is comparing growth from 2020 to 2021. Since the COVID-19 pandemic caused 2020 GDP growth to be negative in many countries, 2021 GDP growth is measured from a lower starting point. This can make percentage growth appear higher, though in many cases economies were simply recovering from the pandemic slump.
GDP Growth by Country
With this in mind, the table below shows real GDP growth by country in 2021, along with a comparison against 2020’s numbers.
Libya experienced the highest growth rate of 177.3%. The country moved toward ending its decade-long conflict, which resulted in a rebound of oil production and economic activity. Rising oil prices have also contributed to the country’s recovery, given the oil and gas sector accounts for 60% of Libya’s GDP. However, caution should be taken with this figure as there is considerable uncertainty against the backdrop of the civil war.
| Country | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | -2.4% | n/a |
| Albania | -3.5% | 8.5% |
| Algeria | -4.9% | 4.0% |
| Andorra | -11.2% | 8.9% |
| Angola | -5.6% | 0.7% |
| Antigua and Barbuda | -20.2% | 4.8% |
| Argentina | -9.9% | 10.2% |
| Armenia | -7.4% | 5.7% |
| Aruba | -22.3% | 16.8% |
| Australia | -2.2% | 4.7% |
| Austria | -6.7% | 4.5% |
| Azerbaijan | -4.3% | 5.6% |
| Bahrain | -4.9% | 2.2% |
| Bangladesh | 3.5% | 5.0% |
| Barbados | -13.7% | 1.4% |
| Belarus | -0.7% | 2.3% |
| Belgium | -5.7% | 6.3% |
| Belize | -16.7% | 9.8% |
| Benin | 3.8% | 6.6% |
| Bhutan | -2.4% | -3.7% |
| Bolivia | -8.7% | 6.1% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | -3.1% | 5.8% |
| Botswana | -8.7% | 12.5% |
| Brazil | -3.9% | 4.6% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 1.1% | -0.7% |
| Bulgaria | -4.4% | 4.2% |
| Burkina Faso | 1.9% | 6.9% |
| Burundi | 0.3% | 2.4% |
| Cabo Verde | -14.8% | 6.9% |
| Cambodia | -3.1% | 2.2% |
| Cameroon | 0.5% | 3.5% |
| Canada | -5.2% | 4.6% |
| Central African Republic | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Chad | -2.2% | -1.1% |
| Chile | -6.1% | 11.7% |
| China | 2.2% | 8.1% |
| Colombia | -7.0% | 10.6% |
| Comoros | -0.3% | 2.2% |
| Costa Rica | -4.1% | 7.6% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 2.0% | 6.5% |
| Croatia | -8.1% | 10.4% |
| Cyprus | -5.0% | 5.5% |
| Czech Republic | -5.8% | 3.3% |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 1.7% | 5.7% |
| Denmark | -2.1% | 4.1% |
| Djibouti | 1.0% | 4.0% |
| Dominica | -11.0% | 3.7% |
| Dominican Republic | -6.7% | 12.3% |
| Ecuador | -7.8% | 4.2% |
| Egypt | 3.6% | 3.3% |
| El Salvador | -7.9% | 10.3% |
| Equatorial Guinea | -4.9% | -3.5% |
| Eritrea | -0.6% | 2.9% |
| Estonia | -3.0% | 8.3% |
| Eswatini | -1.9% | 3.1% |
| Ethiopia | 6.1% | 6.3% |
| Fiji | -15.2% | -4.0% |
| Finland | -2.3% | 3.3% |
| France | -8.0% | 7.0% |
| Gabon | -1.9% | 0.9% |
| Georgia | -6.8% | 10.4% |
| Germany | -4.6% | 2.8% |
| Ghana | 0.4% | 4.2% |
| Greece | -9.0% | 8.3% |
| Grenada | -13.8% | 5.6% |
| Guatemala | -1.5% | 8.0% |
| Guinea | 6.4% | 4.2% |
| Guinea-Bissau | 1.5% | 3.8% |
| Guyana | 43.5% | 19.9% |
| Haiti | -3.3% | -1.8% |
| Honduras | -9.0% | 12.5% |
| Hong Kong SAR | -6.5% | 6.4% |
| Hungary | -4.7% | 7.1% |
| Iceland | -7.1% | 4.3% |
| India | -6.6% | 8.9% |
| Indonesia | -2.1% | 3.7% |
| Iraq | -15.7% | 5.9% |
| Ireland | 5.9% | 13.5% |
| Islamic Republic of Iran | 1.8% | 4.0% |
| Israel | -2.2% | 8.2% |
| Italy | -9.0% | 6.6% |
| Jamaica | -10.0% | 4.4% |
| Japan | -4.5% | 1.6% |
| Jordan | -1.6% | 2.0% |
| Kazakhstan | -2.6% | 4.0% |
| Kenya | -0.3% | 7.2% |
| Kiribati | -0.5% | 1.5% |
| Korea | -0.9% | 4.0% |
| Kosovo | -5.3% | 9.5% |
| Kuwait | -8.9% | 1.3% |
| Kyrgyz Republic | -8.6% | 3.7% |
| Lao P.D.R. | -0.4% | 2.1% |
| Latvia | -3.8% | 4.7% |
| Lebanon | -22.0% | n/a |
| Lesotho | -6.0% | 2.1% |
| Liberia | -3.0% | 4.2% |
| Libya | -59.7% | 177.3% |
| Lithuania | -0.1% | 4.9% |
| Luxembourg | -1.8% | 6.9% |
| Macao SAR | -54.0% | 18.0% |
| Madagascar | -7.1% | 3.5% |
| Malawi | 0.9% | 2.2% |
| Malaysia | -5.6% | 3.1% |
| Maldives | -33.5% | 33.4% |
| Mali | -1.2% | 3.1% |
| Malta | -8.3% | 9.4% |
| Marshall Islands | -2.4% | -1.5% |
| Mauritania | -1.8% | 3.0% |
| Mauritius | -14.9% | 3.9% |
| Mexico | -8.2% | 4.8% |
| Micronesia | -1.8% | -3.2% |
| Moldova | -8.3% | 13.9% |
| Mongolia | -4.6% | 1.4% |
| Montenegro | -15.3% | 12.4% |
| Morocco | -6.3% | 7.2% |
| Mozambique | -1.2% | 2.2% |
| Myanmar | 3.2% | -17.9% |
| Namibia | -8.5% | 0.9% |
| Nauru | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| Nepal | -2.1% | 2.7% |
| Netherlands | -3.8% | 5.0% |
| New Zealand | -2.1% | 5.6% |
| Nicaragua | -2.0% | 10.3% |
| Niger | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| Nigeria | -1.8% | 3.6% |
| North Macedonia | -6.1% | 4.0% |
| Norway | -0.7% | 3.9% |
| Oman | -2.8% | 2.0% |
| Pakistan | -1.0% | 5.6% |
| Palau | -9.7% | -17.1% |
| Panama | -17.9% | 15.3% |
| Papua New Guinea | -3.5% | 1.7% |
| Paraguay | -0.8% | 4.2% |
| Peru | -11.0% | 13.3% |
| Philippines | -9.6% | 5.6% |
| Poland | -2.5% | 5.7% |
| Portugal | -8.4% | 4.9% |
| Puerto Rico | -3.9% | 1.0% |
| Qatar | -3.6% | 1.5% |
| Republic of Congo | -8.1% | -0.2% |
| Romania | -3.7% | 5.9% |
| Russia | -2.7% | 4.7% |
| Rwanda | -3.4% | 10.2% |
| Samoa | -2.6% | -8.1% |
| San Marino | -6.6% | 5.2% |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Saudi Arabia | -4.1% | 3.2% |
| Senegal | 1.3% | 6.1% |
| Serbia | -0.9% | 7.4% |
| Seychelles | -7.7% | 8.0% |
| Sierra Leone | -2.0% | 3.2% |
| Singapore | -4.1% | 7.6% |
| Slovak Republic | -4.4% | 3.0% |
| Slovenia | -4.2% | 8.1% |
| Solomon Islands | -4.3% | -0.2% |
| Somalia | -0.3% | 2.0% |
| South Africa | -6.4% | 4.9% |
| South Sudan | -6.6% | 5.3% |
| Spain | -10.8% | 5.1% |
| Sri Lanka | -3.6% | 3.6% |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | -14.0% | -3.6% |
| St. Lucia | -20.4% | 6.8% |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | -5.3% | -0.5% |
| Sudan | -3.6% | 0.5% |
| Suriname | -15.9% | -3.5% |
| Sweden | -2.9% | 4.8% |
| Switzerland | -2.5% | 3.7% |
| Syria | n/a | n/a |
| Taiwan Province of China | 3.4% | 6.3% |
| Tajikistan | 4.4% | 9.2% |
| Tanzania | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Thailand | -6.2% | 1.6% |
| The Bahamas | -14.5% | 5.6% |
| The Gambia | -0.2% | 5.6% |
| Timor-Leste | -8.6% | 1.8% |
| Togo | 1.8% | 5.1% |
| Tonga | 0.7% | -0.7% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | -7.4% | -1.0% |
| Tunisia | -9.3% | 3.1% |
| Turkey | 1.8% | 11.0% |
| Turkmenistan | -3.0% | 4.9% |
| Tuvalu | 1.0% | 2.5% |
| Uganda | -1.4% | 5.1% |
| Ukraine | -3.8% | 3.4% |
| United Arab Emirates | -6.1% | 2.3% |
| United Kingdom | -9.3% | 7.4% |
| United States | -3.4% | 5.7% |
| Uruguay | -6.1% | 4.4% |
| Uzbekistan | 1.9% | 7.4% |
| Vanuatu | -5.4% | 0.5% |
| Venezuela | -30.0% | -1.5% |
| Vietnam | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| West Bank and Gaza | -11.3% | 6.0% |
| Yemen | -8.5% | -2.0% |
| Zambia | -2.8% | 4.3% |
| Zimbabwe | -5.3% | 6.3% |
Ireland experienced GDP growth of 13.5% in 2021, driven largely by record-high exports. The country is home to more than 1,500 multinationals, including some of the top tech and pharma companies, due to Ireland’s competitive tax rate. The size of some of these multinationals can result in bloated GDP figures.
In South America, Chile had one of the highest GDP growth rates of 11.7%. The economic recovery was driven by one of the fastest COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in the world, which allowed the economy to almost fully reopen. Household consumption also rose thanks to fiscal support from the government and people withdrawing money from their pensions.
Meanwhile U.S. economic growth was roughly on par with the global average at 5.7%. The reasons for growth were widespread, including an increase in consumer spending, business investment, exports, and new single family home construction.
Looking Ahead
Recovering from the pandemic shutdown, almost all countries saw positive GDP growth in 2021. Some of the strongest growth was seen in countries with fully reopened economies, in-demand exports, and strong fiscal and monetary support.
Now, the world faces a new host of issues including worsening inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war. Which countries are projected to fare the best amid these challenges?
In the second part of this series, we’ll dive into predictions for GDP growth by country in 2022 and beyond.
Markets in a Minute
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
The global economy faces an uncertain future in 2023. This year, GDP growth is projected to be 2.9%—down from 3.2% in 2022.
Mapped: GDP Growth Forecasts by Country, in 2023
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year, talk of global recession has dominated the outlook for 2023.
High inflation, spurred by rising energy costs, has tested GDP growth. Tightening monetary policy in the U.S., with interest rates jumping from roughly 0% to over 4% in 2022, has historically preceded a downturn about one to two years later.
For European economies, energy prices are critical. The good news is that prices have fallen recently since March highs, but the continent remains on shaky ground.
The map shows GDP growth forecasts by country for the year ahead, based on projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) October 2022 Outlook and January 2023 update.
2023 GDP Growth Outlook
The world economy is projected to see just 2.9% GDP growth in 2023, down from 3.2% projected for 2022.
This is a 0.2% increase since the October 2022 Outlook thanks in part to China’s reopening, higher global demand, and slowing inflation projected across certain countries in the year ahead.
With this in mind, we show GDP growth forecasts for 191 jurisdictions given multiple economic headwinds—and a few emerging bright spots in 2023.
| Country / Region | 2023 Real GDP % Change (Projected) | 2022 Real GDP % Change (Projected) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇱 Albania | 2.5% | 4.0% |
| 🇩🇿 Algeria | 2.6% | 4.7% |
| 🇦🇴 Angola | 3.4% | 2.9% |
| 🇦🇬 Antigua and Barbuda | 5.6% | 6.0% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina* | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 🇦🇲 Armenia | 3.5% | 7.0% |
| 🇦🇼 Aruba | 2.0% | 4.0% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia* | 1.6% | 3.8% |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 1.0% | 4.7% |
| 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan | 2.5% | 3.7% |
| 🇧🇭 Bahrain | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 6.0% | 7.2% |
| 🇧🇧 Barbados | 5.0% | 10.5% |
| 🇧🇾 Belarus | 0.2% | -7.0% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 0.4% | 2.4% |
| 🇧🇿 Belize | 2.0% | 3.5% |
| 🇧🇯 Benin | 6.2% | 5.7% |
| 🇧🇹 Bhutan | 4.3% | 4.0% |
| 🇧🇴 Bolivia | 3.2% | 3.8% |
| 🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | 4.0% | 4.1% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil* | 1.2% | 2.8% |
| 🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| 🇧🇮 Burundi | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| 🇨🇻 Cabo Verde | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| 🇨🇲 Cameroon | 4.6% | 3.8% |
| 🇰🇭 Cambodia | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada* | 1.5% | 3.3% |
| 🇨🇫 Central African Republic | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| 🇹🇩 Chad | 3.4% | 3.3% |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | -1.0% | 2.0% |
| 🇨🇳 China* | 5.3% | 3.2% |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 2.2% | 7.6% |
| 🇰🇲 Comoros | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| 🇨🇷 Costa Rica | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| 🇨🇮 Côte d'Ivoire | 6.5% | 5.5% |
| 🇭🇷 Croatia | 3.5% | 5.9% |
| 🇨🇾 Cyprus | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| 🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo | 6.7% | 6.1% |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| 🇩🇯 Djibouti | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| 🇩🇲 Dominica | 4.9% | 6.0% |
| 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic | 4.5% | 5.3% |
| 🇪🇨 Ecuador | 2.7% | 2.9% |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt* | 4.0% | 6.6% |
| 🇸🇻 El Salvador | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 🇬🇶 Equatorial Guinea | -3.1% | 5.8% |
| 🇪🇷 Eritrea | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 🇪🇪 Estonia | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| 🇸🇿 Eswatini | 1.8% | 2.4% |
| 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| 🇫🇯 Fiji | 6.9% | 12.5% |
| 🇫🇮 Finland | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 🇫🇷 France* | 0.7% | 2.5% |
| 🇲🇰 North Macedonia | 3.0% | |
| 🇬🇦 Gabon | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| 🇬🇪 Georgia | 4.0% | 9.0% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany* | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| 🇬🇭 Ghana | 2.8% | 3.6% |
| 🇬🇷 Greece | 1.8% | 5.2% |
| 🇬🇩 Grenada | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 🇬🇹 Guatemala | 3.2% | 3.4% |
| 🇬🇳 Guinea | 5.1% | 4.6% |
| 🇬🇼 Guinea-Bissau | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| 🇬🇾 Guyana | 25.2% | 57.8% |
| 🇭🇹 Haiti | 0.5% | -1.2% |
| 🇭🇳 Honduras | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| 🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR | 3.9% | -0.8% |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 1.8% | 5.7% |
| 🇮🇸 Iceland | 2.9% | 5.1% |
| 🇮🇳 India* | 6.1% | 6.8% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia* | 4.8% | 5.3% |
| 🇮🇶 Iraq | 4.0% | 9.3% |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 4.0% | 9.0% |
| 🇮🇷 Iran* | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 3.0% | 6.1% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy* | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| 🇯🇲 Jamaica | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan* | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| 🇯🇴 Jordan | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan* | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| 🇰🇮 Kiribati | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea* | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 🇽🇰 Kosovo | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait | 2.6% | 8.7% |
| 🇰🇬 Kyrgyz Republic | 3.2% | 3.8% |
| 🇱🇦 Lao P.D.R. | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| 🇱🇻 Latvia | 1.6% | 2.5% |
| 🇱🇸 Lesotho | 1.6% | 2.1% |
| 🇱🇷 Liberia | 4.2% | 3.7% |
| 🇱🇾 Libya | 17.9% | -18.4% |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| 🇱🇺 Luxembourg | 1.1% | 1.6% |
| 🇲🇴 Macao SAR | 56.7% | -22.4% |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| 🇲🇼 Malawi | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia* | 4.4% | 5.4% |
| 🇲🇻 Maldives | 6.1% | 8.7% |
| 🇲🇱 Mali | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| 🇲🇹 Malta | 3.3% | 6.2% |
| 🇲🇭 Marshall Islands | 3.2% | 1.5% |
| 🇲🇷 Mauritania | 4.8% | 4.0% |
| 🇲🇺 Mauritius | 5.4% | 6.1% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico* | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| 🇫🇲 Micronesia | 2.9% | -0.6% |
| 🇲🇩 Moldova | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| 🇲🇳 Mongolia | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| 🇲🇪 Montenegro | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | 3.1% | 08% |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| 🇲🇲 Myanmar | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| 🇳🇦 Namibia | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| 🇳🇷 Nauru | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 🇳🇵 Nepal | 5.0% | 4.2% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands* | 0.6% | 4.5% |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| 🇳🇮 Nicaragua | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| 🇳🇪 Niger | 7.3% | 6.7% |
| 🇳🇬 Nigeria* | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 2.6% | 3.6% |
| 🇴🇲 Oman | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan* | 2.0% | 6.0% |
| 🇵🇼 Palau | 12.3% | -2.8% |
| 🇵🇦 Panama | 4.0% | 7.5% |
| 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| 🇵🇾 Paraguay | 4.3% | 0.2% |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| 🇵🇭 Philippines* | 5.0% | 6.5% |
| 🇵🇱 Poland* | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 🇵🇷 Puerto Rico | 0.4% | 4.8% |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | 2.4% | 3.4% |
| 🇨🇬 Republic of Congo | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| 🇷🇴 Romania | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia* | 0.3% | -3.4% |
| 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| 🇼🇸 Samoa | 4.0% | -5.0% |
| 🇸🇲 San Marino | 0.8% | 3.1% |
| 🇸🇹 São Tomé and Príncipe | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia* | 2.6% | 7.6% |
| 🇸🇳 Senegal | 8.1% | 4.7% |
| 🇷🇸 Serbia | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| 🇸🇨 Seychelles | 5.2% | 10.9% |
| 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 2.3% | 3.0% |
| 🇸🇰 Slovak Republic | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| 🇸🇮 Slovenia | 1.7% | 5.7% |
| 🇸🇧 Solomon Islands | 2.6% | -4.5% |
| 🇸🇴 Somalia | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa* | 1.2% | 2.1% |
| 🇸🇸 South Sudan | 5.6% | 6.5% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain* | 1.1% | 4.3% |
| 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka | -3.0% | -8.7% |
| 🇰🇳 St. Kitts and Nevis | 4.8% | 9.8% |
| 🇱🇨 St. Lucia | 5.8% | 9.1% |
| 🇻🇨 St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| 🇸🇩 Sudan | 2.6% | -0.3% |
| 🇸🇷 Suriname | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | -0.1% | 2.6% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| 🇹🇼 Taiwan | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| 🇹🇯 Tajikistan | 4.0% | 5.5% |
| 🇹🇿 Tanzania | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| 🇹🇭 Thailand* | 3.7% | 2.8% |
| 🇧🇸 The Bahamas | 4.1% | 8.0% |
| 🇬🇲 The Gambia | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| 🇹🇬 Togo | 6.2% | 5.4% |
| 🇹🇴 Tonga | 2.9% | -2.0% |
| 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| 🇹🇳 Tunisia | 1.6% | 2.2% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey* | 3.0% | 5.0% |
| 🇹🇲 Turkmenistan | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| 🇹🇻 Tuvalu | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| 🇺🇬 Uganda | 5.9% | 4.4% |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | N/A | -35.0% |
| 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates | 4.2% | 5.1% |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom* | -0.6% | 3.6% |
| 🇺🇲 U.S.* | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| 🇺🇾 Uruguay | 3.6% | 5.3% |
| 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan | 4.7% | 5.2% |
| 🇻🇺 Vanuatu | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| 🇻🇪 Venezuela | 6.5% | 6.0% |
| 🇻🇳 Vietnam | 6.2% | 7.0% |
| West Bank and Gaza | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| 🇾🇪 Yemen | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| 🇿🇲 Zambia | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 2.8% | 3.0% |
*Reflect updated figures from the January 2023 IMF Update.
The U.S. is forecast to see 1.4% GDP growth in 2023, up from 1.0% seen in the last October projection.
Still, signs of economic weakness can be seen in the growing wave of tech layoffs, foreshadowed as a white-collar or ‘Patagonia-vest’ recession. Last year, 88,000 tech jobs were cut and this trend has continued into 2023. Major financial firms have also followed suit. Still, unemployment remains fairly steadfast, at 3.5% as of December 2022. Going forward, concerns remain around inflation and the path of interest rate hikes, though both show signs of slowing.
Across Europe, the average projected GDP growth rate is 0.7% for 2023, a sharp decline from the 2.1% forecast for last year.
Both Germany and Italy are forecast to see slight growth, at 0.1% and 0.6%, respectively. Growth forecasts were revised upwards since the IMF’s October release. However, an ongoing energy crisis exposes the manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities, with potential spillover effects to consumers and businesses, and overall Euro Area growth.
China remains an open question. In 2023, growth is predicted to rise 5.2%, higher than many large economies. While its real estate sector has shown signs of weakness, the recent opening on January 8th, following 1,016 days of zero-Covid policy, could boost demand and economic activity.
A Long Way to Go
The IMF has stated that 2023 will feel like a recession for much of the global economy. But whether it is headed for a recovery or a sharper decline remains unknown.
Today, two factors propping up the global economy are lower-than-expected energy prices and resilient private sector balance sheets. European natural gas prices have sunk to levels seen before the war in Ukraine. During the height of energy shocks, firms showed a notable ability to withstand astronomical energy prices squeezing their finances. They are also sitting on significant cash reserves.
On the other hand, inflation is far from over. To counter this effect, many central banks will have to use measures to rein in prices. This may in turn have a dampening effect on economic growth and financial markets, with unknown consequences.
As economic data continues to be released over the year, there may be a divergence between consumer sentiment and whether things are actually changing in the economy. Where the economy is heading in 2023 will be anyone’s guess.
Markets in a Minute
Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022
U.S. retirement assets have faced challenging conditions amid market headwinds—but over the last decade these assets have nearly doubled.
This infographic is available as a poster.
Chart: The State of U.S. Retirement Assets in 2022
Today, many people are questioning the effects of high inflation on their retirement assets.
This Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments charts the state of U.S. retirement assets to show how Americans are building their retirement savings, and where these assets are being drawn from.
U.S. Retirement Assets: Where it Stands Today
As of 2022, there was over $33 trillion being held in U.S. retirement assets.
For perspective, that’s about 31% of all household financial assets in America and nearly double the amount seen a decade ago. In the table below, we show how this breaks down by retirement asset type, using data from the Investment Company Institute:
| Type of Retirement Asset | 2022* | 2012 | 2002 | 1992 | 1982 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRAs | $11.7T | $5.8T | $2.5T | $872B | $67B |
| DC Plans | $9.3T | $5.2T | $2.6T | $1.1T | $264B |
| State and Local Government DB Plans | $5.1T | $3.2T | $2.1T | $958B | $260B |
| Private-Sector DB Plans | $3.2T | $2.7T | $1.7T | $1.1T | $479B |
| Federal DB Plans | $2.2T | $1.3T | $800B | $411B | $99B |
| Annuities | $2.2T | $1.7T | $899B | $473B | $180B |
| Total | $33.7T | $19.9T | $10.5T | $5.0T | $1.3T |
*As of Q2 2022.
As seen above, individual retirement accounts (IRAs) hold the most retirement assets, at 34% of the total. Since 2012, they have doubled, jumping from $5.8 trillion to $11.7 trillion in 2022.
Today, about 37% of Americans hold an IRA.
With $9.3 trillion in assets, defined contribution (DC) plans are the second-greatest source of savings. These type of plans have the employee make contributions that are automatically deducted from their paycheck. Here, employers have the option to make contributions. Like IRAs, they have grown considerably in the last 10 years.
Defined benefit (DB) plans, meanwhile, have declined in usage, especially in the private sector. In 1982, private-sector DB plans made up almost 40% of U.S. retirement assets. In 2022, they accounted for under 10% of these assets.
Overall, retirement assets have declined in 2022 due to weak market performance—after a record year in 2021 driven by higher contributions, a strong market, and other factors.
U.S. Financial Security in 2022
With these factors at play, how are Americans feeling about their financial security, and how is this impacting their retirement outlook?
In one Ipsos survey, just 56% of Americans surveyed said they felt good about their overall level of financial security.
When it comes to their long-term outlook, chief among concerns is inflation. Over half surveyed said that it will likely have a big impact on their ability to save for retirement and meet other long-term financial goals. Rising interest rates and medical costs are other areas of concern, with about one-third saying they will have a large impact on achieving these outcomes.
Meanwhile, 59% of Americans said they feel confident they have enough savings to enjoy a comfortable retirement. Of these, Baby Boomers feel most confident at 70%, while Gen Z (48%) feels least confident.
The good news is that inflation looks to have hit its peak in the summer of 2022. Still, reaching a 2-3% target may take a longer period of time. With this in mind, looking to investment strategies that include floating-rate bonds and real estate, infrastructure, and value equities may help insulate retirement assets from market fluctations and inflation.
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