Connect with us

Markets in a Minute

Mapped: Economic Predictions for 2022 and Beyond

Published

on

2021 GDP Recap Part 1 of 2
Future GDP Predictions Part 2 of 2

How to use: Arrows on side navigate between 2022 and 2023.

World map shaded according to GDP growth by country in 2022
World map with countries coloured according to economic predictions for 2023
Economic Predictions for 2022_2022 Map
Economic Predictions for 2022_2023 Map
previous arrow
next arrow
World map with countries coloured according to economic predictions for 2022

This infographic is available as a poster.

Economic Predictions for 2022 and Beyond

How resilient will countries be in 2022? Economies have to contend with commodity shortages related to the Russia-Ukraine war, supply chain issues due to lockdowns in China, and tightening monetary policy as inflation rises.

In light of these challenges, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic predictions for 2022 and beyond. The IMF predicts that global GDP growth will slow from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023.

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we explore GDP projections by country. It’s the second in a two-part series that explores GDP growth around the world.

GDP Forecasts by Country

Due to the war in Ukraine, the IMF notes that the economic predictions for 2022 and beyond have considerable uncertainty. The projections also assume that the conflict remains confined to Ukraine and that the pandemic’s health and economic consequences lessen during 2022.

Here are the IMF’s predictions for real GDP growth by country. Unsurprisingly, Ukraine will have the most severe contraction of -35% this year. Russia’s invasion has damaged or destroyed 30% of the nation’s infrastructure, and more than 14 million people have fled their homes.

Jurisdiction2022P2023P
Afghanistann/an/a
Albania2.0%2.8%
Algeria2.4%2.4%
Andorra4.5%2.7%
Angola3.0%3.3%
Antigua and Barbuda6.5%5.4%
Argentina4.0%3.0%
Armenia1.5%4.0%
Aruba2.7%3.7%
Australia4.2%2.5%
Austria2.6%3.0%
Azerbaijan2.8%2.6%
Bahrain3.3%3.0%
Bangladesh6.4%6.7%
Barbados11.2%4.9%
Belarus-6.4%0.4%
Belgium2.1%1.4%
Belize5.7%3.4%
Benin5.9%6.2%
Bhutan4.4%4.5%
Bolivia3.8%3.7%
Bosnia and Herzegovina2.5%2.3%
Botswana4.3%4.2%
Brazil0.8%1.4%
Brunei Darussalam5.8%2.6%
Bulgaria3.2%4.5%
Burkina Faso4.7%5.0%
Burundi3.6%4.6%
Cabo Verde5.2%5.8%
Cambodia5.1%5.9%
Cameroon4.3%4.9%
Canada3.9%2.8%
Central African Republic3.5%3.7%
Chad3.3%3.5%
Chile1.5%0.5%
China4.4%5.1%
Colombia5.8%3.6%
Comoros3.5%3.7%
Costa Rica3.3%3.1%
Croatia2.7%4.0%
Côte d'Ivoire6.0%6.7%
Cyprus2.1%3.5%
Czech Republic2.3%4.2%
Democratic Republic of the Congo6.4%6.9%
Denmark2.3%1.7%
Djibouti3.0%5.0%
Dominica6.8%5.0%
Dominican Republic5.5%5.0%
Ecuador2.9%2.7%
Egypt5.9%5.0%
El Salvador3.0%2.3%
Equatorial Guinea6.1%-2.9%
Eritrea4.7%3.6%
Estonia0.2%2.2%
Eswatini2.1%1.8%
Ethiopia3.8%5.7%
Fiji6.8%7.7%
Finland1.6%1.7%
France2.9%1.4%
Gabon2.7%3.4%
Georgia3.2%5.8%
Germany2.1%2.7%
Ghana5.2%5.1%
Greece3.5%2.6%
Grenada3.6%3.6%
Guatemala4.0%3.6%
Guinea4.8%5.8%
Guinea-Bissau3.8%4.5%
Guyana47.2%34.5%
Haiti0.3%1.4%
Honduras3.8%3.5%
Hong Kong SAR0.5%4.9%
Hungary3.7%3.6%
Iceland3.3%2.3%
India8.2%6.9%
Indonesia5.4%6.0%
Iraq9.5%5.7%
Ireland5.2%5.0%
Islamic Republic of Iran3.0%2.0%
Israel5.0%3.5%
Italy2.3%1.7%
Jamaica2.5%3.3%
Japan2.4%2.3%
Jordan2.4%3.1%
Kazakhstan2.3%4.4%
Kenya5.7%5.3%
Kiribati1.1%2.8%
Korea2.5%2.9%
Kosovo2.8%3.9%
Kuwait8.2%2.6%
Kyrgyz Republic0.9%5.0%
Lao P.D.R.3.2%3.5%
Latvia1.0%2.4%
Lebanonn/an/a
Lesotho3.1%1.6%
Liberia4.5%5.5%
Libya3.5%4.4%
Lithuania1.8%2.6%
Luxembourg1.8%2.1%
Macao SAR15.5%23.3%
Madagascar5.1%5.2%
Malawi2.7%4.3%
Malaysia5.6%5.5%
Maldives6.1%8.9%
Mali2.0%5.3%
Malta4.8%4.5%
Marshall Islands2.0%3.2%
Mauritania5.0%4.4%
Mauritius6.1%5.6%
Mexico2.0%2.5%
Micronesia-0.5%2.8%
Moldova0.3%2.0%
Mongolia2.0%7.0%
Montenegro3.8%4.2%
Morocco1.1%4.6%
Mozambique3.8%5.0%
Myanmar1.6%3.0%
Namibia2.8%3.7%
Nauru0.9%2.0%
Nepal4.1%6.1%
Netherlands3.0%2.0%
New Zealand2.7%2.6%
Nicaragua3.8%2.2%
Niger6.9%7.2%
Nigeria3.4%3.1%
North Macedonia3.2%2.7%
Norway4.0%2.6%
Oman5.6%2.7%
Pakistan4.0%4.2%
Palau8.1%18.8%
Panama7.5%5.0%
Papua New Guinea4.8%4.3%
Paraguay0.3%4.5%
Peru3.0%3.0%
Philippines6.5%6.3%
Poland3.7%2.9%
Portugal4.0%2.1%
Puerto Rico4.8%0.4%
Qatar3.4%2.5%
Republic of Congo2.4%2.7%
Romania2.2%3.4%
Russia-8.5%-2.3%
Rwanda6.4%7.4%
São Tomé and Prìncipe1.6%2.8%
Samoa0.0%4.0%
San Marino1.3%1.1%
Saudi Arabia7.6%3.6%
Senegal5.0%9.2%
Serbia3.5%4.0%
Seychelles4.6%5.6%
Sierra Leone3.4%4.3%
Singapore4.0%2.9%
Slovak Republic2.6%5.0%
Slovenia3.7%3.0%
Solomon Islands-4.0%3.2%
Somalia3.0%3.6%
South Africa1.9%1.4%
South Sudan6.5%5.6%
Spain4.8%3.3%
Sri Lanka2.6%2.7%
St. Kitts and Nevis10.0%4.7%
St. Lucia9.7%6.0%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines5.0%6.4%
Sudan0.3%3.9%
Suriname1.8%2.1%
Sweden2.9%2.7%
Switzerland2.2%1.4%
Syrian/an/a
Taiwan Province of China3.2%2.9%
Tajikistan2.5%3.5%
Tanzania4.8%5.2%
Thailand3.3%4.3%
The Bahamas6.0%4.1%
The Gambia5.6%6.2%
Timor-Leste2.0%3.6%
Togo5.6%6.2%
Tonga-1.7%3.0%
Trinidad and Tobago5.5%3.0%
Tunisia2.2%n/a
Turkey2.7%3.0%
Turkmenistan1.6%2.5%
Tuvalu3.0%3.5%
Uganda4.9%6.5%
Ukraine-35.0%n/a
United Arab Emirates4.2%3.8%
United Kingdom3.7%1.2%
United States3.7%2.3%
Uruguay3.9%3.0%
Uzbekistan3.4%5.0%
Vanuatu2.2%3.4%
Venezuela1.5%1.5%
Vietnam6.0%7.2%
West Bank and Gaza4.0%3.5%
Yemen1.0%2.5%
Zambia3.1%3.6%
Zimbabwe3.5%3.0%

Guyana, a country of less than 800,000 people in South America, is forecast to have the highest GDP growth of 47.2% in 2022 and 34.5% in 2023. The country has begun to rapidly develop its offshore oil industry, with oil earnings estimated to make up nearly 40% of its GDP.

In Asia, India is projected to see strong growth of 8.2% in 2022 and 6.9% in 2023. The growth is supported by government spending and economic reforms, such as lowering the corporate tax rate and allowing more foreign direct investment. In fact, foreign direct investment reached a record $84 billion in 2021-22.

Meanwhile, the IMF predicts that GDP growth in the U.S. will hit 3.7% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023. The Russia-Ukraine war is expected to slow growth in America’s trading partners, reducing their demand for American goods. The central bank has also withdrawn U.S. monetary support faster than expected as rates rise to combat inflation. Even still, the IMF expects that the U.S. will reach its pre-pandemic trend output path by 2022.

Supporting Growth

Certainly, there are a number of risks facing the global economy. Countries with strong fiscal and monetary support, as well as countries with in-demand exports, have some of the best economic predictions for 2022 and beyond.

The IMF also offers countries various recommendations in order to support growth. For instance, central banks can offer clear interest rate guidance to minimize surprises that disrupt the markets. Governments can continue offering targeted fiscal support to vulnerable populations, such as refugees and households most impacted by the pandemic.

Over the longer-term, countries can focus on reskilling their workforce for the digital transformation, investing in renewables for the green transition, and improving the resiliency of global supply chains.

Advisor channel footer

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading
Comments

Markets in a Minute

Charted: The Rise of Stock Buybacks Over 20 Years

Unlike the last two downturns, stock buybacks could hit a record $1.3T in 2022. We chart their growth over the last two decades.

Published

on

Stock Buybacks

This infographic is available as a poster.

Chart: The Rise of Stock Buybacks Over 20 Years

Despite market turbulence, stock buybacks are on track to hit record levels by year-end.

Spurring this wave of buybacks are strong corporate cash flows⁠—sitting near $2 trillion—and a 1% excise tax on buybacks approaching in 2023. This signals a vote of confidence from corporations on their financial health even as a recession looms large.

In this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments, we chart the growth of buybacks over the last two decades and the implications for investors looking ahead.

How Stock Buybacks Work

In stock buybacks, corporations buy their own shares from existing shareholders. This reduces the number of shares in the market and boosts earnings per share. Often, this can increase share prices given the rise in earnings growth.

It was not until 1982 that share repurchases became legal, driving wider usage among corporations as a capital allocation tool.

By comparison, dividends are another common form of distributing capital back to shareholders.

Dividends are bound by strict policies and do not offer the same tax advantages and flexibility as buybacks. While dividends are taxed as income, buybacks are taxed as capital gains—making them a preferential choice for investors. Given these advantages, stock buybacks have outpaced dividends over the last two decades.

In fact, in the third quarter of 2022, an estimated one in five companies in the S&P 500 Index conducted buybacks that in turn increased their earnings per share by at least 4% year-over-year.

Stock Buyback Trends

As the below table shows, stock buybacks in the S&P 500 Index outnumber dividends by about double in 2022:

YearS&P 500 Stock BuybacksS&P 500 Dividends
2022*$1.00T$0.54T
2021$0.88T$0.51T
2020$0.52T$0.48T
2019$0.73T$0.49T
2018$0.81T$0.46T

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices (Sep 2022). *For the 12-months ending June 2022.

However, stock buybacks fluctuate more often than dividends since corporations can turn them on or off. For example, in 2020, buybacks sharply declined given growing financial uncertainty. Meanwhile, companies issued dividends at a steady pace.

In this way, when share prices decline, buybacks typically decrease.

Yet unlike the last two recessions in 2008 and 2020, buybacks have shown notable strength in 2022 in spite of falling share prices.

What Are the Top Sectors for Stock Buybacks?

We can see in the table below that the biggest share repurchasers are in the tech sector, with $2.1 trillion in buybacks since 2009.

SectorCumulative Buybacks Since 2009Q2 Buybacks
Information Technology$2,060.4B$72.0B
Financials$1,265.0B$21.2B
Consumer Discretionary $941.7B$27.6B
Health Care$929.1B$17.2B
Industrials$717.6B$17.4B
Consumer Staples$548.1B$10.7B
Communication Services$369.6B$29.4B
Energy$337.9B$13.4B
Materials$187.0B$8.7B
Utilities $26.8B$0.5B
Real Estate$16.9B$1.1B
Total$7,382.6B$219.6B

Source: Yardeni Research (Nov 2022). Represents stock buybacks for S&P 500 Index sectors.

On the other hand, utilities and other capital-intensive sectors tend to spend less on buybacks in contrast to asset-light sectors such as tech and financials.

What is also characteristic to share buybacks is their concentration. As we have seen in the second quarter this year, the top 20% of buybacks make up 47% of all repurchases across the S&P 500 Index.

New Tax On Stock Buybacks

Stock buybacks have drawn criticism for using cash to benefit shareholders instead of boosting production or improving the quality of the business.

In response, beginning in 2023, the Inflation Reduction Act puts a 1% excise tax on buybacks.

What this means is that public companies based in the U.S. must now pay a 1% tax on share repurchases, which could result in millions of additional expenses. Given this new tax rule, corporations may be accelerating buybacks ahead of year-end.

Implications for Investors

As stock buybacks have grown in prominence, it’s worth noting that not all are equal.

When a buyback aligns with a company’s long-term plan, and the company can cover their operational expenses, it can support the stability and growth of the company. When stock prices are volatile, companies can repurchase shares when they are undervalued.

By contrast, if a company takes on excess leverage in order to buyback shares, it can contribute to lower financial resilience. When a company uses a buyback to opportunistically repurchase shares, the boost in share prices may be short-lived.

In addition, it could also prevent capital from being directed to growth initiatives. In this way, it’s important to consider stock buybacks on a case-by-case basis.

With this in mind, investors can look to companies with healthy balance sheets that can weather economic storms. Here, companies that illustrate price discipline and buy back shares at a discount may help build long-term value, providing benefits to investors who stay the course.

Advisor channel footer

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading

Markets in a Minute

Mapped: Global Energy Prices, by Country in 2022

Energy prices have been extremely volatile in 2022. Which countries are seeing the highest prices in the world?

Published

on

Energy Prices

This infographic is available as a poster.

Mapped: Global Energy Prices, by Country in 2022

For some countries, energy prices hit historic levels in 2022.

Gasoline, electricity, and natural gas prices skyrocketed as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ruptured global energy supply chains. Households and businesses are facing higher energy bills amid extreme price volatility. Uncertainty surrounding the war looms large, and winter heating costs are projected to soar.

Given the global consequences of the energy crisis, this Markets in a Minute from New York Life Investments shows the price of energy for households by country.

1. Global Energy Prices: Gasoline

Which countries and regions pay the most for a gallon of gas?

RankCountry/ RegionGasoline Prices
(USD per Gallon)
1🇭🇰 Hong Kong$11.1
2🇨🇫 Central African Republic$8.6
3🇮🇸 Iceland$8.5
4🇳🇴 Norway$8.1
5🇧🇧 Barbados$7.8
6🇩🇰 Denmark$7.7
7🇬🇷 Greece$7.6
8🇫🇮 Finland$7.6
9🇳🇱 Netherlands$7.6
10🇧🇪 Belgium$7.4
11🇬🇧 United Kingdom$7.2
12🇪🇪 Estonia$7.2
13🇨🇭 Switzerland$7.2
14🇸🇬 Singapore$7.2
15🇸🇪 Sweden$7.1
16🇸🇨 Seychelles$7.1
17🇮🇱 Israel$7.0
18🇩🇪 Germany$7.0
19🇺🇾 Uruguay$7.0
20🇼🇫 Wallis and Futuna$7.0
21🇱🇮 Liechtenstein$6.9
22🇮🇪 Ireland$6.8
23🇵🇹 Portugal$6.8
24🇱🇻 Latvia$6.7
25🇧🇿 Belize$6.7
26🇦🇱 Albania$6.6
27🇦🇹 Austria$6.6
28🇲🇨 Monaco$6.6
29🇪🇸 Spain$6.6
30🇨🇿 Czech Republic$6.5
31🇲🇼 Malawi$6.5
32🇰🇾 Cayman Islands$6.4
33🇸🇰 Slovakia$6.4
34🇲🇺 Mauritius$6.3
35🇱🇺 Luxembourg$6.3
36🇱🇹 Lithuania$6.3
37🇦🇩 Andorra$6.3
38🇮🇹 Italy$6.3
39🇺🇬 Uganda$6.2
40🇭🇺 Hungary$6.2
41🇯🇴 Jordan$6.2
42🇸🇾 Syria$6.1
43🇫🇷 France$6.0
44🇧🇮 Burundi$6.0
45🇧🇸 Bahamas$6.0
46🇳🇿 New Zealand$5.8
47🇸🇲 San Marino$5.8
48🇭🇷 Croatia$5.8
49🇷🇴 Romania$5.7
50🇾🇹 Mayotte$5.7
51🇷🇼 Rwanda$5.7
52🇿🇲 Zambia$5.7
53🇷🇸 Serbia$5.7
54🇱🇦 Laos$5.6
55🇲🇳 Mongolia$5.6
56🇰🇪 Kenya$5.6
57🇨🇾 Cyprus$5.6
58🇯🇲 Jamaica$5.5
59🇲🇰 Northern Macedonia$5.5
60🇨🇱 Chile$5.5
61🇧🇦 Bosnia$5.5
62🇱🇨 Saint Lucia$5.5
63🇵🇱 Poland$5.4
64🇩🇴 Dominican Republic$5.4
65🇨🇦 Canada$5.4
66🇲🇦 Morocco$5.4
67🇦🇼 Aruba$5.4
68🇸🇮 Slovenia$5.4
69🇧🇬 Bulgaria$5.3
70🇵🇪 Peru$5.3
71🇱🇰 Sri Lanka$5.3
72🇨🇷 Costa Rica$5.2
73🇲🇬 Madagascar$5.2
74🇬🇳 Guinea$5.2
75🇳🇵 Nepal$5.2
76🇲🇿 Mozambique$5.2
77🇳🇮 Nicaragua$5.2
78🇲🇱 Mali$5.1
79🇸🇳 Senegal$5.1
80🇺🇦 Ukraine$5.2
81🇩🇲 Dominica$5.0
82🇲🇪 Montenegro$5.0
83🇲🇹 Malta$5.0
84🇲🇩 Moldova$5.0
85🇨🇩 DR Congo$5.0
86🇨🇼 Curacao$5.0
87🇨🇻 Cape Verde$4.9
88🇧🇩 Bangladesh$4.9
89🇱🇷 Liberia$4.9
90🇰🇭 Cambodia$4.8
91🇮🇳 India$4.8
92🇨🇺 Cuba$4.8
93🇭🇳 Honduras$4.7
94🇬🇪 Georgia$4.7
95🇿🇦 South Africa$4.7
96🇹🇿 Tanzania$4.7
97🇫🇯 Fiji$4.7
98🇨🇳 China$4.7
99🇲🇽 Mexico$4.6
100🇬🇹 Guatemala$4.6

Source: GlobalPetrolPrices.com. As of October 31, 2022. Represents average household prices.

At an average $11.1 USD per gallon, households in Hong Kong pay the highest for gasoline in the world—more than double the global average. Both high gas taxes and steep land costs are primary factors behind high gas prices.

Like Hong Kong, the Central African Republic has high gas costs, at $8.6 USD per gallon. As a net importer of gasoline, the country has faced increased price pressures since the war in Ukraine.

Households in Iceland, Norway, and Denmark face the highest gasoline costs in Europe. Overall, Europe has seen inflation hit 10% in September, driven by the energy crisis.

2. Global Energy Prices: Electricity

Extreme volatility is also being seen in electricity prices.

The majority of the highest household electricity prices are in Europe, where Denmark, Germany, and Belgium’s prices are about double that of France and Greece. For perspective, electricity prices in many countries in Europe are more than twice or three times the global average of $0.14 USD per kilowatt-hour.

Over the first quarter of 2022, household electricity prices in the European Union jumped 32% compared to the year before.

RankCountry/ RegionElectricity Prices
(kWh, USD)
1🇩🇰 Denmark$0.46
2🇩🇪 Germany$0.44
3🇧🇪 Belgium$0.41
4🇧🇲 Bermuda$0.40
5🇰🇾 Cayman Islands$0.35
6🇯🇲 Jamaica$0.34
7🇬🇧 United Kingdom$0.32
8🇪🇸 Spain$0.32
9🇳🇱 Netherlands$0.32
10🇧🇧 Barbados$0.32
11🇪🇪 Estonia$0.32
12🇱🇹 Lithuania$0.31
13🇦🇹 Austria$0.31
14🇮🇹 Italy$0.30
15🇨🇿 Czech Republic$0.29
16🇨🇻 Cape Verde$0.28
17🇮🇪 Ireland$0.28
18🇸🇪 Sweden$0.27
19🇧🇸 Bahamas$0.26
20🇬🇹 Guatemala$0.26
21🇱🇮 Liechtenstein$0.26
22🇨🇾 Cyprus$0.25
23🇷🇼 Rwanda$0.25
24🇭🇳 Honduras$0.24
25🇺🇾 Uruguay$0.24
26🇵🇹 Portugal$0.24
27🇸🇻 El Salvador$0.23
28🇱🇻 Latvia$0.22
29🇫🇮 Finland$0.22
30🇱🇺 Luxembourg$0.22
31🇧🇿 Belize$0.22
32🇯🇵 Japan$0.22
33🇨🇭 Switzerland$0.22
34🇵🇪 Peru$0.21
35🇰🇪 Kenya$0.21
36🇦🇺 Australia$0.21
37🇧🇷 Brazil$0.20
38🇲🇱 Mali$0.20
39🇸🇬 Singapore$0.19
40🇷🇴 Romania$0.19
41🇧🇫 Burkina Faso$0.19
42🇸🇮 Slovenia$0.19
43🇬🇦 Gabon$0.19
44🇸🇰 Slovakia$0.19
45🇦🇼 Aruba$0.19
46🇬🇷 Greece$0.19
47🇫🇷 France$0.18
48🇳🇿 New Zealand$0.18
49🇹🇬 Togo$0.18
50🇳🇮 Nicaragua$0.17
51🇻🇪 Venezuela$0.17
52🇵🇦 Panama$0.17
53🇵🇭 Philippines$0.17
54🇵🇱 Poland$0.17
55🇮🇱 Israel$0.16
56🇺🇲 U.S.$0.16
57🇺🇬 Uganda$0.16
58🇭🇰 Hong Kong$0.16
59🇸🇳 Senegal$0.16
60🇲🇴 Macao$0.15
61🇨🇱 Chile$0.15
62🇰🇭 Cambodia$0.15
63🇿🇦 South Africa$0.14
64🇲🇺 Mauritius$0.14
65🇲🇬 Madagascar$0.14
66🇭🇷 Croatia$0.14
67🇮🇸 Iceland$0.14
68🇳🇴 Norway$0.13
69🇲🇹 Malta$0.13
70🇲🇿 Mozambique$0.13
71🇨🇴 Colombia$0.13
72🇧🇬 Bulgaria$0.12
73🇲🇻 Maldives$0.12
74🇨🇷 Costa Rica$0.12
75🇨🇦 Canada$0.11
76🇲🇼 Malawi$0.11
77🇨🇮 Ivory Coast$0.11
78🇳🇦 Namibia$0.11
79🇲🇦 Morocco$0.11
80🇹🇭 Thailand$0.10
81🇦🇲 Armenia$0.10
82🇯🇴 Jordan$0.10
83🇹🇿 Tanzania$0.10
84🇸🇿 Swaziland$0.10
85🇪🇨 Ecuador$0.10
86🇧🇼 Botswana$0.10
87🇩🇴 Dominican Republic$0.10
88🇲🇰 Northern Macedonia$0.10
89🇦🇱 Albania$0.10
90🇱🇸 Lesotho$0.09
91🇸🇱 Sierra Leone$0.09
92🇮🇩 Indonesia$0.09
93🇧🇾 Belarus$0.09
94🇭🇺 Hungary$0.09
95🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina$0.09
96🇹🇼 Taiwan$0.09
97🇰🇷 South Korea$0.09
98🇲🇽 Mexico$0.09
99🇷🇸 Serbia$0.09
100🇨🇩 DR Congo$0.08

Source: GlobalPetrolPrices.com. As of March 31, 2022. Represents average household prices.

In the U.S., consumer electricity prices have increased nearly 16% annually compared to September last year, the highest increase in over four decades, fueling higher inflation.

However, households are more sheltered from the impact of Russian supply disruptions due to the U.S. being a net exporter of energy.

3. Global Energy Prices: Natural Gas

Eight of the 10 highest natural gas prices globally fall in Europe, with the Netherlands at the top. Overall, European natural gas prices have spiked sixfold in a year since the invasion of Ukraine.

RankCountry/ RegionNatural Gas Prices
(kWh, USD)
1🇳🇱 Netherlands$0.41
2🇸🇪 Sweden$0.24
3🇩🇪 Germany$0.21
4🇧🇷 Brazil$0.20
5🇩🇰 Denmark$0.19
6🇪🇸 Spain$0.17
7🇮🇹 Italy$0.16
8🇦🇹 Austria$0.16
9🇸🇬 Singapore$0.15
10🇧🇪 Belgium$0.15
11🇭🇰 Hong Kong$0.14
12🇨🇿 Czech Republic$0.14
13🇬🇷 Greece$0.12
14🇫🇷 France$0.12
15🇯🇵 Japan$0.11
16🇬🇧 United Kingdom$0.10
17🇨🇭 Switzerland$0.10
18🇨🇱 Chile$0.10
19🇵🇹 Portugal$0.09
20🇧🇧 Barbados$0.09
21🇵🇱 Poland$0.09
22🇧🇬 Bulgaria$0.09
23🇮🇪 Ireland$0.08
24🇦🇺 Australia$0.07
25🇲🇽 Mexico$0.07
26🇳🇿 New Zealand$0.06
27🇸🇰 Slovakia$0.06
28🇺🇲 U.S.$0.05
29🇰🇷 South Korea$0.04
30🇨🇴 Colombia$0.04
31🇨🇦 Canada$0.03
32🇷🇸 Serbia$0.03
33🇹🇼 Taiwan$0.03
34🇺🇦 Ukraine$0.03
35🇲🇾 Malaysia$0.03
36🇭🇺 Hungary$0.03
37🇹🇳 Tunisia$0.02
38🇦🇿 Azerbaijan$0.01
39🇧🇭 Bahrain$0.01
40🇧🇩 Bangladesh$0.01
41🇹🇷 Turkey$0.01
42🇷🇺 Russia$0.01
43🇦🇷 Argentina$0.01
44🇧🇾 Belarus$0.01
45🇩🇿 Algeria$0.003
46🇮🇷 Iran$0.001

Source: GlobalPetrolPrices.com. As of March 31, 2022. Represents average household prices.

The good news is that the fall season has been relatively warm, which has helped European natural gas demand drop 22% in October compared to last year. This helps reduce the risk of gas shortages transpiring later in the winter.

Outside of Europe, Brazil has the fourth highest natural gas prices globally, despite producing about half domestically. High costs of cooking gas have been especially challenging for low-income families, which became a key political issue in the run-up to the presidential election in October.

Meanwhile, Singapore has the highest natural gas prices in Asia as the majority is imported via tankers or pipelines, leaving the country vulnerable to price shocks.

Increasing Competition

By December, all seaborne crude oil shipments from Russia to Europe will come to a halt, likely pushing up gasoline prices into the winter and 2023.

Concerningly, analysis from the EIA shows that European natural gas storage capacities could sink to 20% by February if Russia completely shuts off its supply and demand is not reduced.

As Europe seeks out alternatives to Russian energy, higher demand could increase global competition for fuel sources, driving up prices for energy in the coming months ahead.

Still, there is some room for optimism: the World Bank projects energy prices will decline 11% in 2023 after the 60% rise seen after the war in Ukraine in 2022.

Advisor channel footer

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Continue Reading
New York Life Investments

Subscribe

Are you a financial advisor?

Subscribe here to get every update, including when new charts or infographics go live:

Thank you!
Given email address is already subscribed, thank you!
Please provide a valid email address.
Please complete the CAPTCHA.
Oops. Something went wrong. Please try again later.

Popular