Infographics

Demystifying Three Bond Myths During Rising Rates

Published

3 years ago

May 19, 2022

Dorothy Neufeld

This infographic is available as a poster.

Bonds During Rising Interest Rates

This infographic is available as a poster.

Demystifying Three Bond Myths During Rising Rates

Today U.S. Treasury yields, a key return measure for bonds, are over 1% higher than pre-pandemic levels.

January 2020: 1.8%
May 2022: 2.9*

*As of May 17, 2022

While rising interest rates are often seen to have a negative impact on bonds, the current environment may be beneficial.

In this infographic from New York Life Investments, we debunk three common myths about bonds during rising rate environments to explain why.

Bonds During Rising Interest Rates

To start, here’s a brief introduction on how bond yields are affected by interest rates.

Bond yields are the return investors will earn from a bond over a period of time. Bond investors receive interest for purchasing debt issued by the government or a corporation. For instance, a $1,000 bond with a 3% yield would earn $30 annually.

Rising interest rates directly affect bonds.

When interest rates rise, bond yields typically rise. As investors seek out new bonds that provide higher yields (income), the demand for existing lower-yielding bonds declines. Consequently, the price of these existing bonds typically falls.

Given this backdrop, let’s explore how bonds have historically performed during rising rates, the potential buying opportunities they present, and their long-term performance in a rising rate climate.

Myth #1: “Never Hold Bonds During a Rising Rate Environment”

Answer: False

Even during multiple rising rate periods, bonds have shown positive performance in the last 38 out of 42 years. Let’s take a look at the two most recent rising rate periods:

Bond Type	Jun 2004 - Jul 2006	Dec 2015 - Jan 2019	Average
Bank Loans	5.90%	5.20%	5.50%
Short-Term Bonds	2.90%	1.10%	2.00%
Long-Term Bonds	5.60%	2.70%	4.10%
High-Yield Bonds	8.40%	7.50%	7.90%
Municipal Bonds	8.40%	2.70%	3.80%

Time periods measured from the first Federal Reserve rate hike until one month after the last rate hike, which, on average, is when the effective federal funds rate tends to stabilize.
Source: Morningstar (Feb 2022)

As shown above, every type of bond showed positive performance.

High-yield bonds returned the highest over the last two rising rate periods, averaging 7.9%. Not only that, when equities decline, bonds have often cushioned losses, as seen in the Great Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 market crash.

Myth #2: “This Is the Worst Time to Invest In Bonds”

Answer: False

Rather than doom and gloom, the current environment could present a buying opportunity. Consider how municipal (muni) bonds have performed after historically low periods:

Time Period	Peak Date	Trough Date	Drawdown (%)	Return (%) 12 Months Following Trough
Fed Rate Rise (‘04 - ‘06)	Mar 17, 2004	May 13, 2004	-5.29	8.65
Subprime Mortgage Collapse/ Global Financial Crisis	Jan 23, 2008	Oct 16, 2008	-11.22	19.85
Meredith Whitney 60 Minutes Interview	Oct 12, 2010	Jan 17, 2011	-6.46	15.2
Taper Tantrum	May 2, 2013	Sep 5, 2013	-6.77	10.22
Trump Election Victory	Jul 6, 2016	Dec 1, 2016	-5.71	5.95
COVID-19	Mar 9, 2020	Mar 23, 2020	-10.94	13.18
Fed Rate Rise (‘22)	Aug 4, 2021	Mar 16, 2022	-5.59	?

Municipal bonds represented by Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index. Data is for the time period 1/1/1994 to 4/30/2022. Meredith Whitney is known as “The Oracle of Wall Street”. In 2010, when Whitney stated that many municipal bonds would default in 2010, it shocked the market.
Source: Morningstar (Apr 2022)

In the 12 months following each trough date, muni bonds rebounded notably.

For example, after falling over 11% during the Global Financial Crisis, munis returned nearly 20% in the 12 months after. Munis also could potentially benefit from other key factors including solid credit fundamentals and the $350 billion federal stimulus to state and local budgets.

Not only that as bond prices dip, a “buy low” opportunity may be present not only in munis, but other areas of the bond market.

Myth #3: “The Long-Term View Looks Dismal”

Answer: False

When taking a long-term perspective, investors could potentially generate more income from their bond holdings in a rising rate environment than they would have otherwise.

Here’s how investors can capitalize on rising rates as bonds mature, given the following assumptions:

Every year, a maturing bond is replaced with a new 5-year bond.
The yield is 20 basis points (bps) higher on each new bond.

Scenario	Description	Annualized Return of Bond Portfolio After 10 Years
Scenario 1	Yields remain unchanged	1.80%
Scenario 2	Yields fall 100bps across the curve during Year 1	1.10%
Scenario 3	Yields rise 100bps across the curve during Year 1	2.50%

Hypothetical example, for illustrative purposes only. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%, or 0.0001, and is used to denote the percentage change in a financial instrument.
Source: RBC Global Asset Management (2020)

Over the long term, a rising rate environment more than doubled the bond portfolio’s return compared to the falling rate scenario.

With this in mind, active management and a long-term strategy can potentially benefit investors during today’s rising interest rate environment.

Research shows that active approaches to fixed income have generally outperformed passive strategies by diversifying across the maturity spectrum while proactively balancing risk and return. Active strategies can seek out new opportunities as interest rates shift, addressing a broader scope of the bond market.

The Case for Bonds

With inflation and bond yields on the rise, purchasing newly-issued bonds at higher rates can help offset this impact. While bonds may not seem like the obvious choice for investors amid rising rates, history shows us that they may be worth a closer look.

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Infographics

The 20 Most Common Investment Mistakes, in One Chart

Here are the top investment mistakes to avoid, from emotionally driven investing to paying too much in fees.

Published

1 year ago

November 7, 2023

Dorothy Neufeld

The 20 Most Common Investment Mistakes

No one is immune to errors, including the best investors in the world.

Fortunately, investment mistakes can provide valuable lessons over time, providing investors an opportunity to gain insights on investing—and build more resilient portfolios.

This graphic shows the top 20 mistakes to watch out for, according to the CFA Institute.

20 Investment Mistakes to Avoid

From emotionally driven investment decisions to paying too much on fees, here are some mistakes that investors commonly make:

Top 20 Mistakes	Description
1. Expecting Too Much	Having reasonable return expectations helps investors keep a long-term view without reacting emotionally.
2. No Investment Goals	Often investors focus on short-term returns or the latest investment craze instead of their long-term investment goals.
3. Not Diversifying	Diversifying prevents a single stock from drastically impacting the value of your portfolio.
4. Focusing on the Short Term	It’s easy to focus on the short term, but this can make investors second-guess their original strategy and make careless decisions.
5. Buying High and Selling Low	Investor behavior during market swings often hinders overall performance.
6. Trading Too Much	One study shows that the most active traders underperformed the U.S. stock market by 6.5% on average annually. Source: The Journal of Finance
7. Paying Too Much in Fees	Fees can meaningfully impact your overall investment performance, especially over the long run.
8. Focusing Too Much on Taxes	While tax-loss harvesting can boost returns, making a decision solely based on its tax consequences may not always be merited.
9. Not Reviewing Investments Regularly	Review your portfolio quarterly or annually to make sure you’re staying on track or if your portfolio is in need of rebalancing.
10. Misunderstanding Risk	Too much risk can take you out of your comfort zone, but too little risk may result in lower returns that do not reach your financial goals. Recognize the right balance for your personal situation.
11. Not Knowing Your Performance	Often, investors don’t actually know the performance of their investments. Review your returns to track if you are meeting your investment goals factoring in fees and inflation.
12. Reacting to the Media	Negative news in the short-term can trigger fear, but remember to focus on the long run.
13. Forgetting About Inflation	Historically, inflation has averaged 4% annually. Value of $100 at 4% Annual Inflation After 1 Year: $96 After 20 Years: $44
14. Trying to Time the Market	Market timing is extremely hard. Staying in the market can generate much higher returns versus trying to time the market perfectly.
15. Not Doing Due Diligence	Check the credentials of your advisor through sites like BrokerCheck, which shows their employment history and complaints.
16. Working With the Wrong Advisor	Taking the time to find the right advisor is worth it. Vet your advisor carefully to ensure your goals are aligned.
17. Investing With Emotions	Although it can be challenging, remember to stay rational during market fluctuations.
18. Chasing Yield	High-yielding investments often carry the highest risk. Carefully assess your risk profile before investing in these types of assets.
19. Neglecting to Start	Consider two people investing $200 monthly assuming a 7% annual rate of return until the age of 65. If one person started at age 25, their end portfolio would be $520K, but if the other started at 35 it would total about $245K.
20. Not Controlling What You Can	While no one can predict the market, investors can control small contributions over time, which can have powerful outcomes.

For instance, not properly diversifying can expose you to higher risk. Holding one concentrated position can drastically impact the value of your portfolio when prices fluctuate.

In fact, one study shows that the optimal diversification for a large-cap portfolio is holding 15 stocks. In this way, it helps capture the highest possible return relative to risk. When it came to a small-cap portfolio, the number of stocks rose to 26 for optimal risk reduction.

It’s worth noting that one size does not fit all, and seeking financial advice can help you find the right balance based on your financial goals.

Another common mistake is trading too much. Since each trade can rake up fees, this can impact your overall portfolio performance. A separate study showed that the most active traders saw the worst returns, underperforming the U.S. stock market by 6.5% on average annually.

Finally, it’s important to carefully monitor your investments regularly as market conditions change, factoring in fees and inflation. This will let you know if your investments are on track, or if you need to adjust based on changing personal circumstances or other factors.

Controlling What You Can

To help avoid these mistakes, investors can remember to stay rational and focus on their long-term goals. Building a solid portfolio often involves assessing the following factors:

Financial goals
Current income
Spending habits
Market environment
Expected returns

With these factors in mind, investors can avoid focusing on short-term market swings, and control what they can. Making small investments over the long run can have powerful effects, with the potential to accumulate significant wealth simply by investing consistently over time.

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Infographics

Visual Guide: The Three Types of Economic Indicators

From GDP to interest rates, this infographic shows key economic indicators for navigating the massive U.S. economy.

Published

2 years ago

December 23, 2022

Dorothy Neufeld

View the high resolution version of this infographic. Buy the poster.

A Visual Guide to Economic Indicators

Economic indicators provide insight on the state of financial markets.

Each type of indicator offers data and economic measurements, helping us better understand their relationship to the business cycle. As investors navigate the market environment, it’s important to differentiate between the three main types of indicators:

Leading
Coincident
Lagging

The above infographic from New York Life Investments shows a road map of indicators and what they can tell us about the economy.

What’s Ahead: Leading Indicators

Leading indicators present economic data that point to the future direction of the economy like a sign up ahead. Here are three examples.

1. Consumer Confidence Index

This key measure indicates consumer spending and saving plans. When the index is above 100, consumers may spend more over the next year. In December, the index jumped to 108 up from 101 in November. This was in part due to lower inflation expectations and improving job prospects.

In the December survey, 48% indicated that the job market remained strong, highlighting the strength of employment opportunities and likely influencing sentiment towards spending in the future.

2. ISM Purchasing Managers Index

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index indicates expectations of new orders, costs, employment, and U.S. economic activity in the manufacturing sector. The following table shows how the index is broken down based on select measures:

Index	Nov 2022	Oct 2022	Percentage Point Change	Direction	Trend (Months)
Manufacturing PMI	49.0	50.2	-1.2	Contracting	1
New Orders	47.2	49.2	-2.0	Contracting	3
Employment	48.4	50.0	-1.6	Contracting	1
Prices	43.0	46.6	-3.6	Decreasing	2
Imports	46.6	50.8	-4.2	Contracting	1
Manufacturing Sector				Contracting	1

For instance, in November the index fell into its first month of contraction since May 2020. Falling new orders signal that demand has weakened while contracting employment figures indicate lower output across the sector.

3. S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Index indicates the economy’s direction since forward-looking performance is factored into prices. In this way, the S&P 500 Index can represent investor confidence as the index often serves as a proxy for U.S. equity markets. In 2022, returns for the index are roughly -20% year-to-date.

Current Conditions: Coincident Indicators

Coincident indicators reflect the current state of the economy, showing whether it is in a state of growth or contraction.

1. GDP

GDP indicates overall economic performance. Typically it serves as the most comprehensive gauge of the economy since it tracks output across all sectors. In the third quarter of 2022, real U.S. GDP increased 2.9% on an annual basis. That compares to 2.7% for the same period in 2021.

2. Personal Income

Rising incomes indicate a healthier economy and falling incomes signal slower growth. Personal income grew at record levels in 2021 to 7.4% annually amid a rapid economic expansion.

This year, U.S. personal income has grown at a slower pace, at 2.7% on an annual basis as of the third quarter.

3. Industrial Production Index

Strongly correlated to GDP, the industrial production index indicates manufacturing, utilities, and mining output. Below, we show trends in industrial production and how they correspond with GDP and personal income indicators.

Date	U.S. GDP	Personal Income	Industrial Production
2022*	7.3%	2.7%	4.7%
2021	10.7%	7.4%	4.9%
2020	-1.5%	6.7%	-7.0%
2019	4.1%	5.1%	-0.7%
2018	5.4%	5.0%	3.2%
2017	4.2%	4.6%	1.4%
2016	2.7%	2.6%	-2.0%
2015	3.7%	4.7%	-1.4%
2014	4.2%	5.5%	3.0%
2013	3.6%	1.3%	2.0%
2012	4.2%	5.1%	3.0%
2011	3.7%	5.9%	3.2%
2010	3.9%	4.3%	5.5%
2009	-2.0%	-3.2%	-11.4%
2008	2.0%	3.8%	-3.5%
2007	4.8%	5.6%	2.5%
2006	6.0%	7.5%	2.3%
2005	6.7%	5.6%	3.3%

*As of Q3 2022.

As the above table shows, factory production collapsed following the 2008 financial crisis, a key indicator for the depth of an economic downturn. Meanwhile, personal income sank over -3% while GDP fell -2%.

Despite economic uncertainty in 2022, industrial production remains positive, at a 4.7% growth rate, albeit somewhat slower than 2021 levels.

Rearview Mirror: Lagging Indicators

Like checking your back mirror, lagging indicators take place after a key economic event, often confirming what has taken place in the economy. Here are three key examples.

1. Interest Rates

Often, interest rates respond to changes in inflation. When rates rise it can slow economic growth and discourage borrowing. Rising interest rates typically signal a strong economy and are used to tame inflation. On the other hand, low interest rates promote economic growth.

Following years of record-low interest rates, the Federal Funds rate increased at the fastest rate in decades over 2022, jumping from 0.25% in March to 4.25% in December as inflation accelerated.

2. Consumer Price Index

This inflation measure can indicate cash flow for households. Inflation is often the result of rising input costs and increasing money supply across the economy.

Sometimes, inflation can reach a peak after an expansion has ended as rising demand in an economy has pushed up prices. In November, U.S. inflation reached 7.1% annually amid supply chain disruptions and price pressures across food prices, medical prices, and housing costs.

Year	Inflation Rate	Annual Change
2022*	7.1%	2.4%
2021	4.7%	3.5%
2020	1.2%	-0.6%
2019	1.8%	-0.6%
2018	2.4%	0.3%
2017	2.1%	0.9%
2016	1.3%	1.1%
2015	0.1%	-1.5%
2014	1.6%	0.2%
2013	1.5%	-0.6%
2012	2.1%	-1.1%
2011	3.2%	1.5%
2010	1.6%	2.0%
2009	-0.4%	-4.2%
2008	3.8%	1.0%
2007	2.9%	-0.4%
2006	3.2%	-0.2%
2005	3.4%	0.7%

*As of November 2022.

3. Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate has many spillover effects, impacting consumer spending and in turn retail sales and GDP. Historically, unemployment falls slowly after an economic recovery which is why it’s considered a lagging indicator. When the unemployment rate rises it confirms lagging economic performance.

Overall, 2022 has been characterized by a strong job market, with unemployment levels below historical averages, at 3.7% as of October.

On the Road

To get a more comprehensive picture of the economy, combining a number of indicators is more effective than isolating a few variables. With these tools, investors can gain more perspective on the cyclical nature of the business cycle while keeping a long-term perspective in mind on the road ahead.

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