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Markets in a Minute

Black Swan Events: Short-term Crisis, Long-term Opportunity

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Black Swan Events COViD-19

black swan events

This Markets in a Minute chart is available as a poster.

Black Swans: Short-term Crisis, Long-term Opportunity

Few investors could have predicted that a viral outbreak would end the longest-running bull market in U.S. history. Now, the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed stocks far into bear market territory. From its peak on February 19th, the S&P 500 has fallen almost 30%.

While this volatility can cause investors to panic, it’s helpful to keep a long-term perspective. Black swan events, which are defined as rare and unexpected events with severe consequences, have come and gone throughout history. In today’s Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments, we explore the sell-off size and recovery length for some of these events.

Wars, Viruses, and Excessive Valuations

With sell-offs ranging from -5% to -50%, black swan events have all impacted the S&P 500 differently. Here’s a look at select events over the last half-century:

EventStart of Sell-off/Previous PeakSize of Sell-offDuration of Sell-off (Trading Days)Duration of Recovery (Trading Days)
Israel Arab War/Oil EmbargoOctober 29, 1973-17.1%271475
Iranian Hostage CrisisOctober 5, 1979-10.2%2451
Black MondayOctober 13, 1987-28.5%5398
First Gulf WarJanuary 1, 1991-5.7%68
9/11 AttacksSeptember 10, 2001-11.6%615
SARSJanuary 14, 2003-14.1%3940
Global Financial CrisisOctober 9, 2007-56.8%3561022
Intervention in LibyaFebruary 18, 2011-6.4%1829
Brexit VoteJune 8, 2016-5.6%149
COVID-19*February 19, 2020-29.5%19N/A (ongoing)

* Figure as of market close on March 18, 2020. The sell-off measures from the market high to the market low.

While the declines can be severe, most have been short-lived. Markets typically returned to previous peak levels in no more than a couple of months. The Oil Embargo, Black Monday, and the Global Financial Crisis are notable outliers, with the recovery spanning a year or more.

After Black Monday, the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its readiness to provide liquidity, and the market recovered in about 400 trading days. Both the 1973 Oil Embargo and 2007 Global Financial Crisis led to U.S. recessions, lengthening the recovery over multiple years.

COVID-19: How Long Will it Last?

It’s difficult to predict how long COVID-19 will impact markets, as its societal and financial disruption is unprecedented. In fact, the S&P 500 reached a bear market in just 16 days, the fastest time period on record.

black swan events

Some Wall Street strategists believe that the market will only begin to recover when COVID-19’s daily infection rate peaks. In the meantime, governments have begun announcing rate cuts and fiscal stimulus in order to help stabilize the economy.

Considering the high levels of uncertainty, what should investors do?

Buy on Fear, Sell on Greed?

Legendary investor Warren Buffet is a big proponent of this strategy. When others are greedy—typically when prices are boiling over—assets may be overpriced. On the flipside, there may be good buying opportunities when others are fearful.

Most importantly, investors need to remain disciplined with their investment process throughout the volatility. History has shown that markets will eventually recover, and may reward patient investors.

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Markets in a Minute

The Average American’s Financial Portfolio by Account Type

From retirement plans to bank accounts, we show the percentage of an American’s financial portfolio that is typically held in each account.

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The Average American’s Financial Portfolio by Account Type

Where does the average American put their money? From retirement plans to banks, the typical financial portfolio includes a variety of accounts.

In this graphic from Morningstar, we explore what percentage of a person’s money is typically held within each account.

Breaking Down a Typical Financial Portfolio

People put the most money in employer retirement plans, which make up nearly two-fifths of the average financial portfolio. Bank accounts, which include checking, savings, and CDs, hold the second-largest percentage of people’s money.

Account Type% of Financial Portfolio
Employer retirement plan38%
Bank account23%
Brokerage/investment account14%
Traditional IRA10%
Roth IRA7%
Crypto wallet/account4%
Education savings account3%
Other1%

Source: Morningstar Voice of the Investor Report 2024, based on 1,261 U.S. respondents.

Outside of employer retirement plans and bank accounts, the average American keeps nearly 40% of their money in accounts that advisors typically help manage. For instance, people also hold a large portion of their assets in investment accounts and IRAs.

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Account Insight for Advisors

Given the large focus on retirement accounts in financial portfolios, advisors can clearly communicate how they will help investors achieve their retirement goals. Notably, Americans say that funding retirement accounts is a top financial goal in the next three years (39% of people), second only to reducing debt (40%).

Americans also say that building an emergency fund is one of their financial goals (35%), which can be supported by the money they hold in bank accounts. However, it can be helpful for advisors to educate clients on the lower return potential of savings accounts and CDs. In comparison, advisors can highlight that investment or retirement accounts can hold assets with more potential for building wealth, like mutual funds or ETFs. With this knowledge in mind, clients will be better able to balance short-term and long-term financial goals.

The survey results also highlight the importance of advisors staying up to date on emerging trends and products. People hold 4% of their money in crypto accounts on average, and nearly a quarter of people said they hold crypto assets like bitcoin. Advisors who educate themselves on these assets can more effectively answer investors’ questions.

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Markets in a Minute

5 Factors Linked to Higher Investor Engagement

Engaged investors review their goals often and are more involved in decisions, but which factors are tied to higher investor engagement?

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5 Factors Linked to Higher Investor Engagement

Imagine two investors. One investor reviews their investment goals every quarter and actively makes decisions. The second investor hasn’t reviewed their goals in over a year and doesn’t take part in any investment decisions. Are there traits that the first, more involved investor would be more likely to have?

In this graphic from Morningstar, we explore five factors that are associated with high investor engagement.

Influences on Investor Engagement

Morningstar scores their Investor Engagement Index from a low of zero to a high of 100, which indicates full engagement. In their survey, they discovered five traits that are tied to higher average engagement levels among investors.

FactorInvestor Engagement Index Score (Max = 100)
Financial advisor relationshipDon’t work with financial advisor: 63
Work with financial advisor: 70
Sustainability alignmentNo actions/alignment: 63
Some/full alignment: 74
Trust in AILow trust: 61
High trust: 74
Risk toleranceConservative: 62
Aggressive: 76
Comfort making investment decisionsLow comfort: 42
High comfort: 76

Morningstar’s Investor Engagement Index is equally weighted based on retail investors’ responses to seven questions: feeling informed about composition and performance of investments, frequency of investment portfolio review, involvement in investment decision-making, understanding of investment concepts and financial markets, frequency of goals review, clarity of investment strategy aligning to long-term goals, and frequency of engagement in financial education activities.

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On average, people who work with financial advisors, have sustainability alignment, trust AI, and have a high risk tolerance are more engaged.

The starkest contrast was that people with high comfort making investment decisions have engagement levels that are nearly two times higher than those with low comfort. In fact, people with a high comfort level were significantly more likely to say they were knowledgeable about the composition and performance of their investments (84%) vs. those with low comfort (18%).

Personalizing Experiences Based on Engagement

Advisors can consider adjusting their approach depending on an investor’s engagement level. For example, if a client has an aggressive risk tolerance this may indicate the client is more engaged. Based on this, the advisor could check if the client would prefer more frequent portfolio reviews.

On the other hand, soft skills can play a key role for those who are less engaged. People with low comfort making investment decisions indicated that the top ways their financial advisor provides value is through optimizing for growth and risk management (62%), making them feel more secure about their financial future (38%), and offering peace of mind and relief from the stress of money management (30%).

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